Abstract
To improve accuracy and efficiency of monitoring remediated sites, the current study proposed the use of bivariate linear mixed modelling and subsequent hypothesis testing to determine significant change in contaminant concentrations over time. The modelling method integrated soil heavy metal (arsenic–As, lead–Pb and zinc–Zn) concentrations obtained from Bicentennial Park, Sydney, Australia, in the years 1990 (n = 144) and 2015 (n = 60), alongside potential influencing factors as predictor variables. Following variable selection, significant predictors included As (1990)—plan curvature, land cover change; As (2015)—multi-resolution ridge top flatness (MRRTF); Pb (1990)—elevation, MRRTF, type of nearest road; Pb (2015)—land cover change; Zn (1990)—distance to the nearest road and road type; and for Zn (2015)—aspect and land cover change. Model quality statistics (standardised squared prediction error; SSPE) indicated relatively good estimates of the prediction variance (mean ~ 1.0 for all metals, median = 0.512 for As (1990), 0.420 for As (2015), 0.417 for Pb (1990), 0.388 for Pb (2015), 0.342 for Zn (1990) and 0.263 for Zn (2015)), however Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient indicated poor prediction of point estimates (LCCC = 0.263 for As (1990), 0.414 for As (2015), 0.250 for Pb (1990), 0.166 for Pb (2015), 0.233 for Zn (1990) and 0.408 for Zn (2015)). Pb in 1990 exceeded the Australian guide value of 600 mg kg−1 in small, isolated areas of the park, and by 2015, these ‘hotspots’ had significantly diminished (P < 0.05). Concentrations of As were low in both 1990 and 2015, not exceeding the 300 mg kg−1 guide; yet, in 2015, As had significantly increased in the south of the study area (P < 0.2). Zn concentrations in 1990 were elevated but did not exceed the guide value of 30,000 mg kg−1. Overall, the models exhibited good estimation of prediction variance and therefore are suitable for hypothesis testing; however, they exhibited poor prediction quality at times. Despite this, bivariate linear mixed modelling is worth exploring as it provides an advantage over modelling single time points and can assist with tracking potential contaminant sources before they cause harm.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alsbou, E. M. E., & Al-Khashman, O. A. (2017). Heavy metal concentrations in roadside soil and street dust from Petra region, Jordan. [journal article]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 190(1), 48. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-017-6409-1.
Barnes, K. K., Christenson, S. C., Kolpin, D. W., Focazio, M. J., Furlong, E. T., Zaugg, S. D., Meyer, M. T., & Barber, L. B. (2004). Pharmaceuticals and other organic waste water contaminants within a leachate plume downgradient of a municipal landfill. Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation, 24(2), 119–126. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6592.2004.tb00720.x.
Berkowitz, B., Dror, I., & Yaron, B. (2014). Contaminant geochemistry, interactions and transport in the subsurface environment. Heidelberg: Springer.
Birch, G. F., & Scollen, A. (2003). Heavy metals in road dust, gully pots and parkland soils in a highly urbanised sub-catchment of port Jackson, Australia. Australian Journal of Soil Research, 41(7), 1329–1342. https://doi.org/10.1071/Sr02147.
Birch, G. F., Vanderhayden, M., & Olmos, M. (2011). The nature and distribution of metals in soils of the Sydney estuary catchment, Australia. Water Air and Soil Pollution, 216(1–4), 581–604. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11270-010-0555-1.
Cattle, J. A., McBratney, A. B., & Minasny, B. (2002). Kriging method evaluation for assessing the spatial distribution of urban soil Lead contamination. Journal of Environmental Quality, 31(5), 1576–1588. https://doi.org/10.2134/jeq2002.1576.
Chronopoulos, J., Haidouti, C., Chronopoulou-Sereli, A., & Massas, I. (1997). Variations in plant and soil lead and cadmium content in urban parks in Athens, Greece. Science of the Total Environment, 196(1), 91–98. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0048-9697(96)05415-0.
Dao, L., Morrison, L., Kiely, G., & Zhang, C. (2013). Spatial distribution of potentially bioavailable metals in surface soils of a contaminated sports ground in Galway, Ireland. [journal article]. Environmental Geochemistry and Health, 35(2), 227–238. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10653-012-9478-7.
DECC. (2008). Managing urban stormwater: Soils and construction, volume 2B: Waste landfills. Sydney: Department of Environment and Climate Change NSW in association with the Sydney Metropolitan Catchment Management Authority.
DFSI (1990). Historical (aerial) imagery over Bicentennial Park, Historical Imagery - 4029_20_129. NSW Department of Finance, Services & Innovation: Spatial Services, Sydney, Australia.
Environment Agency. (2017). Historic landfill map. U.K: Environment Agency. Accessed 10-11-2017, http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/wiyby/37829.aspx. Accessed 10 Nov 2017.
ESRI (2015). ArcGIS 10.3.1. Environmental Systems Research Institute.
Filippi, P., Cattle, S. R., Bishop, T. F. A., Odeh, I. O. A., & Pringle, M. J. (2018). Digital soil monitoring of top- and sub-soil pH with bivariate linear mixed models. Geoderma, 322, 149–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2018.02.033.
Filippi, P., Minasny, B., Cattle, S. R., & Bishop, T. F. A. (2016). Chapter four - monitoring and modeling soil change: The influence of human activity and climatic shifts on aspects of soil spatiotemporally. In D. L. Sparks (Ed.), Advances in agronomy (Vol. 139, pp. 153–214). Academic Press.
Gelman, A. (2008). Scaling regression inputs by dividing by two standard deviations. Statistics in Medicine, 27(15), 2865–2873. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.3107.
Geoscience Australia (2011a). 1 Second SRTM Derived Hydrological Digital Elevation Model (DEM-H) Version 1.0. National Digital Elevation Data Framework (NEDF), Canberra.
Geoscience Australia (2011b). 1 second SRTM Derived Smoothed Digital Elevation Model (DEM-S) version 1.0. National Digital Elevation Data Framework (NEDF), Canberra.
Glaspie, C. N., & Seitz, R. D. (2017). Multiple stressors associated with acid sulfate soil effluent influence mud crab Scylla serrata predation on Sydney rock oysters Saccostrea glomerata. Marine and Freshwater Research, 68(4), 743–751. https://doi.org/10.1071/MF15350.
Glavin, R. J., & Hooda, P. S. (2005). A practical examination of the use of Geostatistics in the remediation of a site with a complex metal contamination history. Soil and Sediment Contamination: An International Journal, 14(2), 155–169.
Google Earth (2015). Bicentennial Park, 33o50'59.91″S, 151o04'45.43″E, Google Earth Pro. Date on image: 16-10-2015, date viewed: 20-08-17.
Google OSM (2015). OpenStreetMap. Accessed 15-07-2015, https://www.openstreetmap.org.
Goovaerts, P. (1997). Geostatistics for natural resources evaluation: New York: Oxford University Press. New York, U.S.A.
Gredilla, A., Fdez-Ortiz de Vallejuelo, S., Gomez-Nubla, L., Carrero, J. A., de Leão, F. B., Madariaga, J. M., et al. (2017). Are children playgrounds safe play areas? Inorganic analysis and lead isotope ratios for contamination assessment in recreational (Brazilian) parks. [journal article]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 24(31), 24333–24345. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-9831-6.
Gu, Y.-G., Gao, Y.-P., & Lin, Q. (2016). Contamination, bioaccessibility and human health risk of heavy metals in exposed-lawn soils from 28 urban parks in southern China's largest city, Guangzhou. Applied Geochemistry, 67, 52–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeochem.2016.02.004.
Hazelton, P. A., & Murphy, B. W. (2011). Understanding soils in urban environments. Collingwood, Victoria, Australia: CSIRO Publishing: Earthscan.
He, J., Yang, Y., Christakos, G., Liu, Y., & Yang, X. (2019). Assessment of soil heavy metal pollution using stochastic site indicators. Geoderma, 337, 359–367. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2018.09.038.
Jiang, Y., Chao, S., Liu, J., Yang, Y., Chen, Y., Zhang, A., & Cao, H. (2017). Source apportionment and health risk assessment of heavy metals in soil for a township in Jiangsu Province, China. Chemosphere, 168, 1658–1668. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2016.11.088.
Johnson, L. E., Bishop, T. F. A., & Birch, G. F. (2017). Modelling drivers and distribution of lead and zinc concentrations in soils of an urban catchment (Sydney estuary, Australia). Sci Total Environ, 598, 168–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.04.033.
Kalyuzhnyi, S., Epov, A., Sormunen, K., Kettunen, R., Rintala, J., Privalenko, V., Nozhevnikova, A., Pender, S., & Colleran, E. (2003). Evaluation of the current status of operating and closed landfills in Russia, Finland and Ireland with regard to water pollution and methane emission. Water Science and Technology, 48(4), 37–44.
Karunaratne, S. B., Bishop, T. F. A., Odeh, I. O. A., Baldock, J. A., & Marchant, B. P. (2014). Estimating change in soil organic carbon using legacy data as the baseline: Issues, approaches and lessons to learn. Soil Research, 52(4), 349–365. https://doi.org/10.1071/SR13081.
Laidlaw, M. A. S., & Taylor, M. P. (2011). Potential for childhood lead poisoning in the inner cities of Australia due to exposure to lead in soil dust. Environmental Pollution, 159(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2010.08.020.
Lark, R. M. (2000). A comparison of some robust estimators of the variogram for use in soil survey. European Journal of Soil Science, 51(1), 137–157. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2389.2000.00280.x.
Lark, R. M., & Scheib, C. (2013). Land use and lead content in the soils of London. Geoderma, 209–210(0), 65–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2013.06.004.
Marchant, B. P., & Lark, R. M. (2007). Estimation of linear models of Coregionalization by residual maximum likelihood. European Journal of Soil Science, 58(6), 1506–1513. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2389.2007.00957.x.
Mudgal, V., Madaan, N., Mudgal, A., Singh, R., & Mishra, S. (2010). Effect of toxic metals on human health. Open Nutraceut J, 3, 94–99.
Murphy, C. L. (1997). Acid Sulfate Soils Risk - Prospect/Parramatta River. Acid Sulphate Soil Risk Map (2 ed.). Office of Environment and Heritage NSW (OEH). Accessed 22-05-2018, https://datasets.seed.nsw.gov.au/dataset/acid-sulfate-soils-risk0196c
Nabulo, G., Oryem-Origa, H., & Diamond, M. (2006). Assessment of lead, cadmium, and zinc contamination of roadside soils, surface films, and vegetables in Kampala City, Uganda. Environmental Research, 101(1), 42–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2005.12.016.
NEPC. (1999). National Environment Protection (Assessment of Site Contamination) Measure 1999 (Vol. 1). Australia: National Environment Protection Council (NEPC).
NSW EPA. (2016). Environmental guidelines, solid waste landfills, second edition. Sydney: NSW Environment Protection Authority (EPA).
Peng, T., O'Connor, D., Zhao, B., Jin, Y., Zhang, Y., Tian, L., Zheng, N., Li, X., & Hou, D. (2019). Spatial distribution of lead contamination in soil and equipment dust at children's playgrounds in Beijing, China. Environmental Pollution, 245, 363–370. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2018.11.011.
R Core Team. (2016). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing: Vienna, Austria.
Reis, A. P., Patinha, C., Wragg, J., Dias, A. C., Cave, M., Sousa, A. J., Batista, M. J., Prazeres, C., Costa, C., Ferreira da Silva, E., & Rocha, F. (2014). Urban geochemistry of lead in gardens, playgrounds and schoolyards of Lisbon, Portugal: Assessing exposure and risk to human health. Applied Geochemistry, 44, 45–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeochem.2013.09.022.
Ribeiro, P. J., & Diggle, P. J. (2016). geoR: Analysis of geostatistical data. Accessed 21-01-2017, https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=geoR.
RMS (2017). Traffic Volume Viewer. (pp. Interactive traffic volume map). http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/about/corporate-publications/statistics/traffic-volumes/aadt-map/index.html#/?z=17&lat=-33.86290454022706&lon=151.0657463073733&id=28008&tb=1:: Accessed date 11 Dec 2017. Roads and Maritime Services.
Saby, N. P. A., Marchant, B. P., Lark, R. M., Jolivet, C. C., & Arrouays, D. (2011). Robust geostatistical prediction of trace elements across France. Geoderma, 162(3–4), 303–311. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2011.03.001.
Sammut, J., White, I., & Melville, M. (1996). Acidification of an estuarine tributary in eastern Australia due to drainage of acid sulfate soils. Marine and Freshwater Research, 47(5), 669–684. https://doi.org/10.1071/MF9960669.
Shen, F., Liao, R., Ali, A., Mahar, A., Guo, D., Li, R., Xining, S., Awasthi, M. K., Wang, Q., & Zhang, Z. (2017). Spatial distribution and risk assessment of heavy metals in soil near a Pb/Zn smelter in Feng County, China. Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety, 139, 254–262. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoenv.2017.01.044.
Snowdon, R., & Birch, G. F. (2004). The nature and distribution of copper, lead, and zinc in soils of a highly urbanised sub-catchment (Iron cove) of port Jackson, Sydney. Soil Research, 42(3), 329–338. https://doi.org/10.1071/SR03017.
SOPA (2011). Annual Report: 2010–2011 - State of Environment Report. Sydney Olympic Park Auhority (SOPA). Accessed 26-10-2017, http://www.sopa.nsw.gov.au/resource_centre/publications.
SOPA (2015). Fact sheet - history. Sydney Olympic Park Authority (SOPA). Accessed 26-10-2017, https://www.sopa.nsw.gov.au/Resource-Centre/Resource-Publications.
SOPA. (2016). Annual Report 2015–16. Sydney: Sydney Olympic Park Authority. Accessed 10-11-2017, https://www.sopa.nsw.gov.au/Resource-Centre/Resource-Publications.
Suh, J. Y., Birch, G. F., & Hughes, K. (2004a). Hydrochemistry in reclaimed lands of the 2000 Olympic games site, Sydney, Australia. Journal of Coastal Research, 203, 709–721. https://doi.org/10.2112/1551-5036(2004)20[709:HIRLOT]2.0.CO;2.
Suh, J. Y., Brown, P. L., & Birch, G. F. (2003). Hydrogeochemical characteristics and importance of natural and anthropogenic influences on soil and groundwater in reclaimed land adjacent to port Jackson, Sydney, Australia. Marine and Freshwater Research, 54(6), 767–779. https://doi.org/10.1071/MF02075.
Suh, J. Y., Birch, G. F., Hughes, K., & Matthai, C. (2004b). Spatial distribution and source of heavy metals in reclaimed lands of Homebush Bay: The venue of the 2000 Olympic games, Sydney, New South Wales. Australian Journal of Earth Sciences, 51(1), 53–67. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1400-0952.2003.01043.x.
Tallis, M., Taylor, G., Sinnett, D., & Freer-Smith, P. (2011). Estimating the removal of atmospheric particulate pollution by the urban tree canopy of London, under current and future environments. Landscape and Urban Planning, 103(2), 129–138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2011.07.003.
Taylor, M. P., Camenzuli, D., Kristensen, L. J., Forbes, M., & Zahran, S. (2013). Environmental lead exposure risks associated with children's outdoor playgrounds. Environmental Pollution, 178(0), 447–454. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2013.03.054.
Tiller, K. (1992). Urban soil contamination in Australia. Soil Research, 30(6), 937–957. https://doi.org/10.1071/SR9920937.
US EPA (2011). Green remediation best management practices: Landfill cover systems and energy production (Document no. 542-F-11-024), United States Environmental Protection Agency Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (5102G). Accessed 10-11-2017, https://www.epa.gov/remedytech/green-remediation-best-management-practices-landfill-cover-systems-energy-production.
Webster, R., & Oliver, M. A. (2001). Geostatistics for environmental scientists, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, U.K.
Acknowledgements
We wish to thank the Sydney Olympic Park Authority for giving permission to sample at Bicentennial Park in 2015 (work permit ID: 2347). We would especially like to thank Jennifer O’Meara from the Sydney Olympic Park Authority for organising permits and manuscript approval prior to submission as per the work agreement.
For assistance with field sampling in 2015, the authors are grateful to Mohmmad M. Shaike and Mark A. S. Johnson. Finally, we would like to thank the editor Professor Y.P. Lin and the reviewers, who took the time to review this manuscript, providing insightful and helpful feedback.
The authors wish to acknowledge the support they have received from an Australian Research Council Linkage Project: Optimised field delineation of contaminated soils, LP150100566.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Pozza, L.E., Bishop, T.F.A. & Birch, G.F. Using bivariate linear mixed models to monitor the change in spatial distribution of heavy metals at the site of a historic landfill. Environ Monit Assess 191, 472 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-019-7593-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-019-7593-y