Abstract
The understanding of the regional and local dimensions of vulnerability due to climate change is essential to develop appropriate and targeted adaptation efforts. We assessed the local dimensions of vulnerability in the tropical state of Kerala, India, using a purposely developed vulnerability index, which accounts for both environmental and socio-economic factors. The large extents of coastal wetlands and lagoons and high concentration of mangrove forests make the state environmentally vulnerable. Low human development index, large population of socially deprived groups, which are dependent on the primary sector, and high population density make the state vulnerable from a socio-economic point of view. The present study investigates climate change vulnerability at the district level in the State of Kerala relying on a purposely developed composite vulnerability index that encompasses both socio-economic and environmental factors. The Kerala coast contains the socio-economically and ecologically most vulnerable regions, as demonstrated by a composite vulnerability index.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Anonymous. (2015). Kerala State disaster management plan profile. Thiruvananthapuram: Kerala State Disaster Management Authority.
Bohle, H.G., Downing, T.E., Watts M.J. (1994). Climate change and social vulnerability; towards sociology and geography of food security. Global Environmental Change.
Brenkert, A. L., & Malone, E. L. (2005). Modeling vulnerability and resilience to climate change: a case study of India and Indian states. Climate Change, 72, 57–102.
Deressa, T.T., Hassan, R.M., Ringler, C., Alemu, T., Yesuf, M., 2009. Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Global Environ. Change 19, 248–255
Dev, V., & Dash, A. (2007). Rainfall and malaria transmission in North-Eastern India. Annals of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, 101(5), 457–459.
Devi, N. P., & Jauhari, R. (2006). Climatic variables and malaria incidence in Dehradun, Uttaranchal, India. Journal of Vector Borne Diseases, 43(1), 21–28.
Downing, T.E., & Patwardhan, A. (2005). Vulnerability assessment for climate adaptation. In B. Lim.
Eakin, H., & Luers, A. L. (2006). Assessing the vulnerability of social environmental systems. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 31, 365–394.
Gbetibouo, G. A., Ringler, C., & Hassan, R. (2010). Vulnerability of the south African farming sector to climate change and variability: An indicator approach. Natural Resources Forum, 34, 175–187.
Gilman, E.L., Ellison, J.B., Duke, N.C., Field, C. (2008). Threats to mangroves from climate change and adaptation options: A review. Aquatic Botany, 89, 237–250.
Hahn, M.B., Riederer, A.M., Foster, S.O. (2009). The livelihood vulnerability index: A pragmatic approach to assessing risk from climate variability and change- a case study in Mozambique. Global Environmental Change, IGEC, 678.
Iglesias, A., Quiroga, S., & Diz, A. (2011). Looking into the future of agriculture in a changing climate. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 38, 427–447.
IPCC. (2012). Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. In C. B. Field, V. Barros, T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, D. J. Dokken, K. L. Ebi, M. D. Mastrandrea, K. J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S. K. Allen, M. Tignor, & P. M. Midgley (Eds.), A special report of working groups I and II of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 582 pp.
Krishnakumar, K. N., Rao Prasad, G. G. L. H. V., & Gopal, C. S. (2009). Rainfall trends in twentieth century over Kerala, India. Atmospheric Environment, 43(11), 1940–1944.
Laneri, K., Bhadra, A., Ionides, E. L., Bouma, M., Dhiman, R. C., Yadav, R. S., & Pascual, M. (2010). Forcing versusfeedback: Epidemic malaria and monsoon rainsin Northwest India. PLoS Computational Biology, 6(9), e1000898. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000898.
Linham, M.M., & Nicholls, R.J. (2010). Technologies for Cllimate change adaptation-coastal Erosion and flooding. UNEP.
McMichael, A. J., Wilkinson, P., Kovats, R. S., Pattenden, S., Hajat, S., Armstrong, B., Vajanapoom, N., Niciu, E. M., Mahomed, H., & Kingkeow, C. (2008). International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: The ‘ISOTHURM’ project. International Journal of Epidemiology, 37(5), 1121–1131.
Metzger, M., & Schröter, D. (2006). Towards a spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of environmental change in Europe. Regional Environmental Change, 6, 201–206.
MoEF (2004). India’s initial national communication to the United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change, Government of India.
Monirul, M., & Mirza, Q. (2011). Climate change, flooding in South Asia and implications. Regional Environmental Change, 11(1), S95–S107.
OECD. (2008). Handbook on constructing composite indicators: Methodology and user guide. Paris: OECD Publishing.
Olmos, S. (2001). Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change: Concepts, issues, assessment methods. For the climate change knowledge network.
Oppenheimer, M., Campos, M., Warren, R., Birkmann, J., Luber, G., O’Neill, B., Takahashi, K. (2014). Emergent risk and vulnerabilities. Chapter 19 in: climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. In: Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (Eds.), Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 1039–1099). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Osman-Elasha, B. (2006). Human resilience to climate change: Lessons for eastern and northern Africa. A final report of AIACC project no. AF14. Washington: International START Secretariat.
Pal, I., & Al-Tabbaa, A. (2009). Trends in seasonal precipitation extremes: An indicator of “climate change” in Kerala, India. Journal of Hydrology, 367, 62–69.
Poff, N.L., Brinson, M.M., Day, J.W. (2002). Aquatic ecosystems and global climate change: Potential impacts on inland freshwater and fresh water and coastal wetland ecosystems in the United States. O Center on Climate Change.
Rao, G. G. S. N., Rao, A. V. M. S., Vanaja, M., Rao., V. U. M. & Ramakrishna, Y. S. (2008). Impact of Regional Climate change over India. Chapter 2. In: GSLHV Prasada Ra, GGSN Rao, VUM Rao and Y.S. Ramakrishna (Eds), Climate change and Agriculture over India. KAU-ICAR Publication. p. 258
Rao Prasada, G.S.L.H.V., Alexander, D., Krishnakumar, K. N., Gopakumar, C. S. (2008). Gopakumar impact of climate change on plantations over the humid tropics of Kerala. Climate Change and Agriculture over India.
Ravindranath, N. H., Joshi, N. V., & Sukumar, R. (2006). Impact of climate change of forests in India. Current Science, 90(3), 354–361.
Schroter, D., Cramer, W., Leemans, R., Prentice, I. C., Araujo, M. B., Arnell, N. W., ... Zierl, B. (2005). Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science, 310(5752), 1333–1337.
Schroterm D., Zebisch, M., Grothmann, T. (2005). Climate change in Germany-Vulnerability and adaptation of climate-sensitive sectors. www.pik-potsdam.de/news/public-events/archiv/alter-net/former-ss/2008/working-groups/literature/schroeter-et-al-ksb06.pdf.
Seidi, R., Schelhaas, M. J., & Lindner, M. (2009). Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strateiges. Regional Environmental Change, 9, 101–111.
Sheela, A. M., Letha, J., Sabu, J., Thomas, J., & Sanal Kumar, S. P. (2012). Water quality assessment of a tropical coastal lake system usingmultivariate-cluster, principal component and factor analysis. Lakes and Reservoir Management, 17, 143–159(2012).
Sheela, A. M., Sarun, S., Justus, J., Vineetha, P., & Sheeja, R. V. (2015). Assessment of Changes of Vector borne diseases with wetland characteristics using multivariate analysis. Environmental Geochemistry and Health, Springer, 37, 391–410.
Soman (1997). Geology of Kerala. Geological Society of India, Bangalore.
Stern, N., Peters, S., Bakhshi, V., Bowen, A., Cameron, C., Catovsky, S., Crane, D., Cruickshank, S., Dietz, S. (2006). Stern review: The economics of climate change. OUP.
The World Bank (2009). Adapting to climate change in ECA countries.
Turner, B. L., Kasperson, R. E., Matson, P. A., McCarthy, J. J., Corell, R. W., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Kasperson, J. X., Luers, A., Martello, M. L., Polsky, C., Pulsipher, A., & Schiller, A. (2003). A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 100(14), 8074–8079.
Unnikrishnan, A. S., Kumar, K. R., Fernandes, S. E., Michael, G. S., & Patwardhan, S. K. (2006). Sea level changes along the Indian coast: Observations and projections. Current Science, 90(3), 362–368.
Vogel, C. H., & O’Brien, K. (2006). Who can eat information? Examining the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecasts and regional climate risk management strategies. Climate Research, 33, 111–122.
Wassmann, R., Jagadish, S. V. K., Sumfleth, K., Pathak, H., Howell, G., Ismail, A., Serraj, R., Redona, E., Singh, R. K., & Heuer, S. (2009). Chapter 3: Regional vulnerability of climate change impacts on Asian rice production and scope for adaptation. Advances in Agronomy, 102, 91–133.
Yohe, G., & Tol, R. S. J. (2002). Indicators for social and economic coping capacity: Moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity. Global Environmental Change, 12, 25–40.
Yusuf, A. A., & Francisco, H. A. (2009). Climate change vulnerability mapping for Southeast Asia. Singapore: Economy and Environment Programme for Southeast Asia.
Acknowledgements
We acknowledge United Nations Development Programme, Directorate of Environment and Climate Change, Kerala, Centre for Geo-information Science and Technology, University of Kerala, for the support.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sarun, S., Ghermandi, A., Sheela, A.M. et al. Climate change vulnerability in a tropical region based on environmental and socio-economic factors. Environ Monit Assess 190, 727 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-018-7095-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-018-7095-3