Predicting the origins of next forest-based emerging infectious disease

Abstract

Land use change near dense forests is the single major cause of emergence of forest-based emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) among humans. In an attempt to predict where the next EID would originate from, we are hypothesizing that future EIDs would originate from a region having high population density, excessive poverty, and is located near dense vegetation. Using ArcGIS, we identified forest regions in ten countries across the globe that meet all the three conditions identified in the hypothesis. We further narrowed down the locations using Global Forest Watch data, which eliminates locations next to protected forests and fragmented forests. Our results indicate that there is high likelihood of next infectious disease originating from the southern and eastern forests around Freetown in Sierra Leone, the forest region around Douala in Cameroon, or the southern forest region in Nigeria. Concerted efforts need to be made to identify any new disease in the areas as soon as it emerges in the human population and contain the spread within the population.