Abstract
Land use/cover changes (LUCCs) are an important cause of regional climate changes, but the contribution of LUCCs to regional climate changes is not clear. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and statistical methods were used to investigate changes in meteorologic variables in January, April, July, and October 2013 due to local LUCCs from 1990 to 2010 in southern Shandong province, China. The results indicate that the WRF model simulates temperatures in the region well, with high correlation coefficients (0.86–0.97, p < 0.001) between the modeled and measured values. The model simulates precipitation less well, with correlation coefficients of 0.41–0.91, but they are all at statistically significant levels, with p < 0.05. During the 20-year period, the LUCCs in the study area consisted mainly of conversions from dry land to urbanized land (747.3 km2) and bare/sparse vegetation (132.4 km2). The LUCCs caused a 0.16 °C temperature increase in January and October and 0.01 and 0.18 °C temperature decreases in April and July, respectively. The range of temperature changes over mixed forest and water bodies due to the LUCCs was wide (0.39–1.31 °C) and was narrower over deciduous broadleaf forest and wetland (0.01 to 0.06 °C). The LUCCs did not change the precipitation greatly in January, April, and October but did affect the precipitation in July substantially, causing a decrease of 23.71 mm. The LUCCs did not affect wind speed and direction substantially during these four months: average wind speeds increased by 0.02 and 0.01 m/s in January and October, respectively, and decreased by 0.02 and 0.05 m/s in April and July, respectively. Overall, The LUCCs affected spring temperatures the least and summer precipitation the most.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Cetin, M. (2015a). Evaluation of the sustainable tourism potential of a protected area for landscape planning: a case study of the ancient city of Pompeipolis in Kastamonu. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 22(6), 490–495.
Cetin, M. (2015b). Determining the bioclimatic comfort in Kastamonu City. Environmental Monitoring & Assessment, 187(10), 640.
Cetin, M. (2015c). Using GIS analysis to assess urban green space in terms of accessibility: case study in Kutahya. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 22(5), 420–424.
Cetin, M., Adiguzel, F., Kaya, O., & Sahap, A. (2016). Mapping of bioclimatic comfort for potential planning using gis in aydin. Environment Development & Sustainability, 1–15.
Chen, H., Li, X., & Hua, W. (2015). Numerical simulation of the impact of land use/land cover change over China on regional climates during the last 20 years. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 39(2), 357–369 (in Chinese).
Cutin, M., Topay, M., Kaya, L.G., Yilmaz, B. (2010). Efficiency of bioclimatic comfort in landscape planning process: case of Kutahya. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi Seri A, 83–95.
Daham, A., Han, D., & Rico-Ramirez, M. (2016). Potential reciprocal effect between land use/land cover change and climate change. EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, 18, 1337.
Dong, S., Yan, X., & Xiong, Z. (2014). Modeled impacts of land-use and land-cover change in Northeast China on climate. Climatic and Environmental Research, 19(3), 351–361 (in Chinese).
Dong, S. Y., Yan, X. D., Xiong, Z., Shi, Y., & Wang, J. H. (2015). Impacts of land use/cover change in China on mean temperature. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 35(14), 4871–4879 (in Chinese).
Gao, X., Zhang, D., Chen, Z., Pal, J. S., & Giorgi, F. (2007). Land use effects on climate in China as simulated by a regional climate model. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 50(4), 620–628.
Gao, C., Zhou, P., Jia, P., Liu, Z., Wei, L., & Tian, H. (2016). Spatial driving forces of dominant land use/land cover transformations in the Dongjiang River watershed, southern China. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 188(2), 1–15.
Hua, W., Chen, H., & Li, X. (2014). Review of land use and land cover change in China and associated climatic effects. Advances in Earth Science, 29(9), 1025–1036 (in Chinese).
Im, E. S., Ahn, J. B., & Jo, S. R. (2015). Regional climate projection over South Korea simulated by the HadGEM2-AO and WRF model chain under RCP emission scenarios. Climate Research, 63, 249–266.
Jiang, L., Yao, Z., & Huang, H. Q. (2016). Climate variability and change on the Mongolian Plateau: historical variation and future predictions. Climate Research, 67, 1–14.
Liu, J. Y., Shao, Q. Q., Yan, X. D., Fan, J. W., Deng, X. Z., Zhan, J. Y., & Wang, J. B. (2011). An overview of the progress and research framework on the effects of land use change upon global climate.Advances in. Earth Science, 26(10), 1015–1022.
Liu, F., Tao, F., Liu, J., Zhang, S., Xiao, D., Wang, M., & Bai, H. (2016). Effects of land use/cover change on land surface energy partitioning and climate in Northeast China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 123(1–2), 141–150.
Man, W. M., Zhou, T. J., Zhang, L. X., Wu, B., & Zhang, J. (2012). Contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcings in twentieth-century temperature change: results from LASG/IAP climate system model FGOALS_gl. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 55(2), 372–383 (in Chinese).
Peng, S. S., Piao, S., Zeng, Z., Ciais, P., Zhou, L., Li, L. Z., & Zeng, H. (2014). Afforestation in China cools local land surface temperature. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(8), 2915–2919.
Pielke, R., Beven, K., Brasseur, G., Calvert, J., Chahine, M., Dickerson, R. R., & Krajewski, W. (2009). Climate change: the need to consider human forcings besides greenhouse gases. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 90(45), 413–413.
Pitman, A. J., Arneth, A., & Ganzeveld, L. (2012). Regionalizing global climate models. International Journal of Climatology, 32(3), 321–337.
Shao, P., & Zeng, X. (2012). Progress in the study of the effects of land use and land cover change on the climate system. Climatic and Environmental Research, 17(1), 103–111 (in Chinese).
Wang, M., Xiong, Z., & Yan, X. (2015). Modeling the climatic effects of the land use/cover change in eastern China. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 87, 97–107.
Wu, Y., Li, S., & Yu, S. (2016). Monitoring urban expansion and its effects on land use and land cover changes in Guangzhou city, China. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 188(1), 1–15.
Zhang, X., Tang, Q., Zheng, J., & Ge, Q. (2013). Warming/cooling effects of cropland greenness changes during 1982-2006 in the North China Plain. Environmental Research Letters, 8(2), 024038.
Zhang, X., Liu, J., Xiong, Z., & Zhang, H. (2015). Simulated effects of agricultural development on surface air temperature over central and eastern China in the late 20th century. Acta Geographica Sinica, 70(9), 1423–1433 (in Chinese).
Acknowledgements
This research is supported by Shandong Province Outstanding Young Scientists Award Fund (BS2014HZ022), National Natural Science Foundation of Shandong (ZR2015DL001), and Startup Fund Scientific Research Project of Qufu Normal University (BSQD20130102). We are grateful to Dr. Gregory J. White and anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on improving the manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Lian, L., Li, B., Chen, Y. et al. Quantifying the effects of LUCCs on local temperatures, precipitation, and wind using the WRF model. Environ Monit Assess 189, 501 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-017-6204-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-017-6204-z