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Nonlinear autoregressive neural networks with external inputs for forecasting of typhoon inundation level

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Abstract

Accurate inundation level forecasting during typhoon invasion is crucial for organizing response actions such as the evacuation of people from areas that could potentially flood. This paper explores the ability of nonlinear autoregressive neural networks with exogenous inputs (NARX) to predict inundation levels induced by typhoons. Two types of NARX architecture were employed: series-parallel (NARX-S) and parallel (NARX-P). Based on cross-correlation analysis of rainfall and water-level data from historical typhoon records, 10 NARX models (five of each architecture type) were constructed. The forecasting ability of each model was assessed by considering coefficient of efficiency (CE), relative time shift error (RTS), and peak water-level error (PE). The results revealed that high CE performance could be achieved by employing more model input variables. Comparisons of the two types of model demonstrated that the NARX-S models outperformed the NARX-P models in terms of CE and RTS, whereas both performed exceptionally in terms of PE and without significant difference. The NARX-S and NARX-P models with the highest overall performance were identified and their predictions were compared with those of traditional ARX-based models. The NARX-S model outperformed the ARX-based models in all three indexes, whereas the NARX-P model exhibited comparable CE performance and superior RTS and PE performance.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology in Taiwan under Grant No. MOST 105-2625-M-197-001. Support from the Water Resources Agency in Taiwan is also acknowledged.

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  1. National Ilan University, No. 1, Sec. 1, Shennong Rd., Yilan County 260, Yilan City, Taiwan

    Huei-Tau Ouyang

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Ouyang, HT. Nonlinear autoregressive neural networks with external inputs for forecasting of typhoon inundation level. Environ Monit Assess 189, 376 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-017-6100-6

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