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Assessing spatio-temporal trend of vector breeding and dengue fever incidence in association with meteorological conditions

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Abstract

Th aim of this study is to investigate spatio-temporal trends of dengue vector breeding and epidemic (disease incidence) influenced by climatic factors. The spatio-temporal (low-, medium-, and high-intensity periods) evaluation of entomological and epidemiological investigations along with climatic factors like rainfall (RF), temperature (Tmax), relative humidity (RH), and larval indexing was conducted to develop correlations in the area of Lahore, Pakistan. The vector abundance and disease transmission trend was geo-tagged for spatial insight. The sufficient rainfall events and optimum temperature and relative humidity supported dengue vector breeding with high larval indices for water-related containers (27–37%). Among temporal analysis, the high-intensity period exponentially projected disease incidence followed by post-rainfall impacts. The high larval incidence that was observed in early high-intensity periods effected the dengue incidence. The disease incidence had a strong association with RF (r = 0.940, α = 0.01). The vector larva occurrence (r = 0.017, α = 0.05) influenced the disease incidence. Similarly, RH (r = 0.674, α = 0.05) and average Tmax (r = 0.307, α = 0.05) also induced impact on the disease incidence. In this study, the vulnerability to dengue fever highly correlates with meteorological factors during high-intensity period. It provides area-specific understanding of vector behavior, key containers, and seasonal patterns of dengue vector breeding and disease transmission which is essential for preparing an effective prevention plan against the vector.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the team of Dengue Vector Control and Prevention Unit Data Gunj Bukhsh Town Lahore for all of field assistance during this project. We also thank the Director Punjab Information Technology Board for providing the meteorological health data entries.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Sustainable Development Study Center, Government College University, Katchery Road, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan

    Afifa Malik, Abdullah Yasar, Amtul Bari Tabinda, Adeeba Batool & Yusra Mahfooz

  2. Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Government College University, Allama Iqbal Road, Faisalabad, 38000, Pakistan

    Ihsan Elahi Zaheer

  3. Department of Statistics, Government College University, Katchery Road, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan

    Khalida Malik

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  1. Afifa Malik
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  2. Abdullah Yasar
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  3. Amtul Bari Tabinda
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  4. Ihsan Elahi Zaheer
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  5. Khalida Malik
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  6. Adeeba Batool
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Correspondence to Afifa Malik.

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Malik, A., Yasar, A., Tabinda, A.B. et al. Assessing spatio-temporal trend of vector breeding and dengue fever incidence in association with meteorological conditions. Environ Monit Assess 189, 189 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-017-5902-x

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