Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Estimating Air Quality in a Traffic Tunnel Using a Forecasting Combination Model

  • Published:
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study compared three forecasting methods based on their accuracy or absolute errors in forecasting air pollution in a traffic tunnel: the Grey model (GM), the Crank-Nicholson implicit scheme model, and the forecasting combination model (FCM). Three criteria, root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), were applied to the models and the FCM model displayed all of the characteristics of a good forecasting model. The correlation coefficient (r) for the FCM model equaled 0.94 (Upwind), 0.98 (Middle) and 0.98 (Downwind). This study indicated that FCM can be used to accurately forecast CO pollution in the Kaohsiung Cross Harbor Tunnel.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bunn, D. W.: 1989, ‘Forecasting with more than one model’, J. Forecasting 8, 161–166.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bunn, D. W.: 1996, ‘Non-traditional methods of forecasting’, Eur. J. Operat. Research 92, 528–536.

    Google Scholar 

  • Buckland, A. T. and Middleton, D. R.: 1999, ‘Nomograms for calculating pollution within street canyons’, Atmos. Environ. 33, 1017–1036.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Chen, J. Y. and Lin, Y. H.: 1996, ‘Design of fuzzy sliding mode controller with grey predictor’, J. Grey System 8, 147–164.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chatfield, C.: 1996, ‘Model uncertainty and forecast accuracy’, J. Forecasting 15, 495–508.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chiang, H. K. and Tseng, C. H.: 2004, ‘Design and implementation of a grey sliding mode controller for synchronous reluctance motor drive’, Control Eng. Practice 12, 155–163.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deng, J. L.: 1986, ‘Grey Forecasting and Decision, Huazhong University of Science and Technology Press’, Wuhan, 97–134.

  • Deng, J. L.: 1989, ‘Introduction to Grey system theory’, J. Grey System 1, 1–24.

    Google Scholar 

  • Donaldson, R. G. and Kamstra, M.: 1996, ‘Forecast combining with neural networks’, J. Forecasting 15, 49–61.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hsu, C. I. and Wen, Y. H.: 2000, ‘Application of Grey theory and multi-objective programming towards airline network design’, Eur. J. Operat. Research 127, 44–68.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lin, M. D. and Lin, Y. C.: 2002, ‘The application of GIS to air quality analysis in Taichung City, Taiwan, ROC’, Environ. Model. Software 17, 11–19.

    Google Scholar 

  • Manning, A. J., Nicholson, K. J., Middleton, D. R. and Rafferty, S. C.: 2000, ‘Field study of wind and traffic to test a street canyon pollution model’, Environ. Monit. Assess. 60, 283–313.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Makridakis, S., Andersen, A., Carbone, R., Fildes, R., Hibon, M., Lewandowski, R., Newton, J., Parzen, E. and Winkler, R.: 1982, ‘The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition’, J. Forecasting 1, 111–153.

    Google Scholar 

  • Oettl, D., Sturm, P. J., Bacher, M., Pretterhofer, G. and Almbauer, R. A.: 2002, ‘A simple model for the dispersion of pollutants from a road tunnel portal’, Atmos. Environ. 36, 2943–2953.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Sharma, P. and Khare, M.: 2001, ‘Modeling of vehicular exhausts–a review’, Transport. Research D6, 179–198.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tseng, F. M., Yu, H. C. and Tzeng, G. H.: 2001, ‘Applied hybrid Grey model to forecast seasonal time series’, Technol. Forecasting Social Change 67, 291–302.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, M. H. and Hung, C. P.: 2003, ‘Novel grey model for the prediction of trend of dissolved gases in oil-filled power apparatus’, Electric Power Systems Research 67, 53–58.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yokum, J. T. and Armstrong, J. S.: 1995, ‘Beyond Accuracy: Comparison of criteria used to select forecasting methods’, Inter. J. Forecasting 11, 591–597.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yuan, C. S. and Hung, C. H.: 1998, ‘On-Site Investigation of Toxic Air Pollutants in the Subway Tunnels in Kaohsiung City. (Taiwan) Environ’, Protection Bureau, Kaohsiung.

  • Zhang, G.: 2003, ‘Time series forecasting using a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model’, Neurocomputing 50, 159–175.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Graduate School of Engineering Science and Technology, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, Taiwan

    Cheng-Chung Lee

  2. Institute of Safety Health and Environmental Engineering, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, Taiwan

    Terng-Jou Wan & Chao-Yin Kuo

  3. Department of Environmental Engineering and Science, Tajen Institute of Technology, 20, Weishin Road, Yanpu Shiang, Pingtung 907, Taiwan

    Cheng-Chung Lee & Chung-Yi Chung

Authors
  1. Cheng-Chung Lee
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Terng-Jou Wan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Chao-Yin Kuo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Chung-Yi Chung
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Chao-Yin Kuo.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Lee, CC., Wan, TJ., Kuo, CY. et al. Estimating Air Quality in a Traffic Tunnel Using a Forecasting Combination Model. Environ Monit Assess 112, 327–345 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-006-1073-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-006-1073-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation