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Global climate suitability of citrus huanglongbing and its vector, the Asian citrus psyllid, using two correlative species distribution modeling approaches, with emphasis on the USA

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Abstract

Two approaches to correlative species distribution models (MaxEnt and Multi-Model Framework) were used to predict global and local potential distribution of huanglongbing (HLB) caused by Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (CLas) and its vector the Asian citrus psyllid (ACP, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama). Long-term climate data were sourced from the Worldclim website. The global distribution of CLas and ACP was gathered from online databases, literature review and communication with specialists. Data on Clas and ACP distribution in the USA were not used in model calibration to allow model validation for independent locations. Both models successfully predicted Florida and coastal areas in the Gulf Coast states as highly suitable for Clas and ACP. The models also predicted that coastal areas in California were climatologically favorable for ACP and Clas, but less so than in Florida. When current USA presence data were included in the models, the suitable areas for ACP establishment expanded to the Central Valley, CA, while this area remained less conducive for CLas. Climate suitability was primarily related to rainfall and secondarily to temperature. Globally, both models predicted that climates in large areas of Africa, Latin America and North Australia were highly suitable for ACP and CLas, while the climate in the Mediterranean area was moderately suitable for ACP but less suitable for CLas, except for that in southern Portugal and Spain. Clas predictions from our models could be informative for countries like Australia, New Zealand, citrus-producing European countries and much of Africa, where CLas and D. citri have not been reported.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the Esther B. O’Keeffe Foundation, which funded the research. We also thank Dr. Janchi Chen, Dr. Weishou Shen, Dr. Helvecio D. Coletta Filho, Dr. Alberto M. Gochez, Dr. Jim A. Faulkner, David M. Johnson, Dr. Senait D. Senay and Dr. Xiaoan Sun who sent us occurrence localities of the target species and Hannah Fahsbender who helped exploring coordinates of many localities. We are grateful to Svetlana Folimonova, Erica Goss and Natasha Shelby for reviewing an earlier version of this manuscript. The authors would like to extend their gratitude to the two anonymous reviewers and the editor for their valuable and insightful comments that improved the quality of the paper. This is Entomology Contribution No. 1286, Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, Division of Plant Industry, Bureau of Entomology, Nematology, and Plant Pathology.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Plant Pathology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA

    Hossein A. Narouei-Khandan & Ariena H. C. van Bruggen

  2. Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, Division of Plant Industry, Gainesville, FL, USA

    Susan E. Halbert

  3. Bio-Protection Research Centre, Lincoln University, P O Box 85084, Lincoln, New Zealand

    Susan P. Worner

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  1. Hossein A. Narouei-Khandan
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  2. Susan E. Halbert
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  3. Susan P. Worner
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  4. Ariena H. C. van Bruggen
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Correspondence to Hossein A. Narouei-Khandan or Ariena H. C. van Bruggen.

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Fig. S1

Relative contributions of each of 11 environmental variables, selected in the random forest procedure, to the training gain for predictions of citrus huanglongbing (HLB) distribution by the MaxEnt model using the Jackknife test. (JPEG 92 kb)

Fig. S2

Response curves of Asian Citrus psyllid (ACP) and citrus huanglongbing (HLB) to variable Bio-12, annual precipitation (mm), as provided by the Worldclim website, based on predictions made by the MaxEnt model for ACP and HLB. (JPEG 864 kb)

Fig. S3

Enlarged maps of potential habitat suitability of citrus huanglongbing, HLB, in the USA predicted by the MaxEnt (a) and SVM (b) models. (JPEG 977 kb)

Fig. S4

Relative contributions of each of 10 environmental variables, selected in the random forest procedure, to the training gain for predictions of Asian Citrus Psyllid (ACP) distribution by the MaxEnt model using the Jackknife test. (JPEG 84 kb)

Fig. S5

Enlarged maps of potential habitat suitability of the Asian Citrus Psyllid, ACP, in the USA predicted by the MaxEnt (a) and SVM (b) models. (JPEG 873 kb)

Fig. S6

Global potential distribution of the Asian Citrus Psyllid, ACP, by MaxEnt (a) and the Support Vector Machine, SVM (b) models when USA presence data were included in the model calibrations. (JPEG 2535 kb)

Fig. S7

Enlarged maps of potential habitat suitability of the Asian citrus psyllid, ACP, in the USA predicted by the MaxEnt (a) and SVM (b) models when USA presence data were included in the model calibrations. (JPEG 949 kb)

Fig. S8

Enlarged maps of the consensus model of either one or both models (MaxEnt and SVM) showing hot spots of potential citrus huanglongbing, HLB, and the Asian Citrus Psyllid, ACP, establishment in the USA. (JPEG 393 kb)

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Narouei-Khandan, H.A., Halbert, S.E., Worner, S.P. et al. Global climate suitability of citrus huanglongbing and its vector, the Asian citrus psyllid, using two correlative species distribution modeling approaches, with emphasis on the USA. Eur J Plant Pathol 144, 655–670 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10658-015-0804-7

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