This paper employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lags approach to investigate how a set of economic variables and a deterrence variable affect criminal activity. Furthermore, it highlights the extent to which crime is detrimental to economic activity. The case study is Italy for the time span 1970 up to 2004. A Granger causality test is implemented to establish temporal interrelationships. The empirical evidence shows that the lack of deterrence positively affects each type of crime and especially thefts. All crime typologies have a negative effect on legal economic activity, reducing the employment rate. Furthermore, homicides, robbery, extortion and kidnapping have a crowding-out effect on economic growth.
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Detotto, C., Pulina, M. Does more crime mean fewer jobs and less economic growth?. Eur J Law Econ 36, 183–207 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10657-012-9334-3
- Economic variables
- Crowding-out effect