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Evaluation of the Cumulative Evidence for Freedom from BSE in Birth Cohorts

  • Neurological Diseases
  • Published:
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Abstract

Substantial resources are used for surveillance of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) despite an extremely low detection rate, especially in healthy slaughtered cattle. We have developed a method based on the geometric waiting time distribution to establish and update the statistical evidence for BSE-freedom for defined birth cohorts using continued surveillance data. The results suggest that currently (data included till September 2004) a birth cohort of Danish cattle born after March 1999 is free from BSE with probability (power) of 0.8746 or 0.8509, depending on the choice of a model for the diagnostic sensitivity. These results apply to an assumed design prevalence of 1 in 10,000 and account for prevalence heterogeneity. The age-dependent, diagnostic sensitivity for the detection of BSE has been identified as major determinant of the power. The incorporation of heterogeneity was deemed adequate on scientific grounds and led to improved power values. We propose our model as a decision tool for possible future modification of the BSE surveillance and discuss public health and international trade implications.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Working Group in Biostatistical Modelling and International Epidemiology, Section of Applied Statistics, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Reading, Earley Gate Whiteknights Road, Reading, RG6 6FN, UK

    Dankmar Böhning

  2. International EpiLab, Danish Institute for Food and Veterinary Research, Mørkhøj Bygade 19, DK-2860, Søborg, Denmark

    Matthias Greiner

  3. OIE Collaborating Centre for Research and Training in Population Animal Health Diagnosis and Surveillance Systems, Denmark

    Matthias Greiner

Authors
  1. Dankmar Böhning
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  2. Matthias Greiner
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Correspondence to Dankmar Böhning.

Additional information

DB conducted this research at the International EpiLab in Copenhagen, Denmark.

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Böhning, D., Greiner, M. Evaluation of the Cumulative Evidence for Freedom from BSE in Birth Cohorts. Eur J Epidemiol 21, 47–54 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-005-4638-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-005-4638-z

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