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Investigating the correlation between chemical parameters, risk assessment, and sensitivity analysis of fluoride and nitrate in regional groundwater sources using Monte Carlo

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Abstract

Groundwater is one of the most important sources of drinking and irrigation water in arid and semi-arid areas. This study aimed to investigate the chemical quality of groundwater for drinking and irrigation, assess the non-carcinogenic risk factors resulting from the concentration of fluoride and nitrate ions, and analyze the sensitivity among children, teenagers, and adults using Monte Carlo method. A total of 171 samples were obtained from confined groundwater in Arsanjan. Among other hydrological parameters of water, EC had the highest average (1135.97). TDS ranged from 67.90 to 1878.30 mg/L, with the lowest and highest total hardness values being 2.90 and 680.8, respectively. The water quality index (WQI) results indicated that 33% of the samples were at the poor water level and the irrigation (IWQI) was less than 25 in 96.36% of the samples, which were categorized as excellent. Thus, the majority of the samples were suitable for irrigation purposes. Additionally, the oral and dermal health risks of fluoride and nitrate were less than 1 in all age groups. Concentration factor was the main indicator in the assessment of the non-carcinogenic risk factors of nitrate and fluoride. The results of sensitivity analysis revealed a reverse relationship with body weight. Further, the results of principal component analysis (PCA) showed a negative relationship between fluoride concentration and pH. Hierarchical cluster analysis also showed that the study variables belonged to three main clusters. Some elements in C1 were also found in the first factor in PCA. The elements in C2 were among the dominant compounds of the groundwater resources of the study area, which may be caused by earth cations or human activities. C3 variables may also be one of the consequences of fertilizer use in areas around groundwater sources.

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Acknowledgements

The present article was adopted from the proposal number 23012 approved by Shiraz University of Medical Sciences. The authors would like to thank the research deputy of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences for financially supporting the present work and Vice-chancellor for Health of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences.

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  1. Environmental Health, Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Health, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran

    Roya morovati, Mitra Najafi & Abooalfazl Azhdarpoor

  2. Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Medical Sciences, Behbahan Faculty of Medical Sciences, Behbahan, Iran

    Ahmad Badeenezhad

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  1. Roya morovati
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Roya morovati & Abooalfazl Azhdarpoor contributed to conceptualization, methodology, validation, formal analysis, writing—original draft, and writing—review & editing. Ahmad Badeenezhad contributed to conceptualization, writing—review & editing. Mitra Najafi contributed to conceptualization, project administration, and writing—review& editing.

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Correspondence to Abooalfazl Azhdarpoor.

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morovati, R., Badeenezhad, A., Najafi, M. et al. Investigating the correlation between chemical parameters, risk assessment, and sensitivity analysis of fluoride and nitrate in regional groundwater sources using Monte Carlo. Environ Geochem Health 46, 5 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10653-023-01819-x

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