Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Spatiotemporal evolution and trend prediction of regional water–energy–food–ecology system vulnerability: a case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Environmental Geochemistry and Health Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The vulnerability study of the water–energy–food–ecosystem (WEFE) system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) is of great significance for ensuring water, energy, food, and ecological security. In this study, the concept of vulnerability of WEFE systems is explained, and then its mechanism is analyzed. Based on the vulnerability concept of the WEFE system and combined with the pressure–state–response (PSR) framework and the exposure–sensitivity–adaptability (ESA) capacity model, this study constructs an evaluation index system for the vulnerability of the WEFE system. The cross-efficiency data envelopment analysis (CE-DEA) method, which considers both self-evaluation and peer evaluation efficiency, is used to calculate the vulnerability from 2005 to 2020. The spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics are explored using the hot spot analysis and spatial autocorrelation model. The results show that the overall vulnerability of the WEFE system in the YREB has fluctuated and increased during the study period, with a spatial pattern characterized by "high in the middle and low on both sides." Over time, the spatial evolution tends to be centralized and non-equilibrium, forming a relatively independent spatial pattern.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

No data was used for the research described in the article.

References

  • AbdelHady, R. S., Fahmy, H. S., & Pacini, N. (2017). Valuing of Wadi El-Rayan ecosystem through water-food-energy nexus approach. Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology, 17(4), 247–253.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bazilian, M., Rogner, H., Howells, M., Hermann, S., Arent, D., Gielen, D., et al. (2011). Considering the energy, water and food nexus: Towards an integrated modelling approach. Energy Policy, 39(12), 7896–7906.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bieber, N., Ker, J. H., Wang, X., Triantafyllidis, C., van Dam, K. H., Koppelaar, R. H., & Shah, N. (2018). Sustainable planning of the energy-water-food nexus using decision making tools. Energy Policy, 113, 584–607.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bleischwitz, R., Spataru, C., VanDeveer, S. D., Obersteiner, M., van der Voet, E., Johnson, C., et al. (2018). Resource nexus perspectives towards the United Nations sustainable development goals. Nature Sustainability, 1(12), 737–743.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cai, Z., Ding, X., Lin, H., Zhou, Z., Yang, X., & Jiang, P. (2023). Does urban scale borrowing aggravate carbon and air pollution emissions? Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 102, 107223.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cansino-Loeza, B., Munguia-Lopez, A. D., & Ponce-Ortega, J. M. (2022). A water-energy-food security nexus framework based on optimal resource allocation. Environmental Science & Policy, 133, 1–16.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Central People's Government of the People's Republic of China. (2016), September. The Yangtze River Economic Belt Development Plan Outline. Retrieved December 8, 2021, from http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2016-09/12/content_5107501.htm.

  • Chamas, Z., Abou Najm, M., Al-Hindi, M., Yassine, A., & Khattar, R. (2021). Sustainable resource optimization under water-energy-food-carbon nexus. Journal of Cleaner Production, 278, 123894.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Charnes, A., Cooper, W. W., & Rhodes, E. (1978). Measuring the efficiency of decision making units. European Journal of Operational Research, 2(6), 429–444.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen, W. Z., & Chen, Y. (2021). Two-step measurement of water-energy-food symbiotic coordination and identification of key influencing factors in the Yangtze River Basin. Entropy, 23(7), 798.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen, Y., & Xu, L. (2021). Evaluation and scenario prediction of the water-energy-food system security in the Yangtze River economic belt based on the RF-Haken model. Water, 13(5), 695.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dai, J. Y., Wu, S. Q., Han, G. Y., Weinberg, J., Xie, X. H., Wu, X. F., et al. (2018). Water-energy nexus: A review of methods and tools for macro-assessment. Applied Energy, 210, 393–408.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ding, T., & Chen, J. C. (2021). Evaluation and obstacle factors of coordination development of regional water-energy-food-ecology system under green development: A case study of Yangtze River Economic Belt, China. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 36(9), 2477–2493.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ding, X. H., Gao, S. H., & Wu, F. P. (2019). Study on the spatial spillover effect of environmental regulation, FDI agglomeration and water utilization efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. China Population, Resources and Environment, 29(8), 148–155.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ding, X., Cai, Z., & Fu, Z. (2021). Does the new-type urbanization construction improve the efficiency of agricultural green water utilization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt? Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 64103–64112.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fitton, N., Alexander, P., Arnell, N., Bajzelj, B., Calvin, K., Doelman, J., Gerber, J. S., Havlik, P., Hasegawa, T., Herrero, M., Krisztin, T., van Meijl, H., Powell, T., Sands, R., Stehfest, E., West, P. C. and Smith, P., & Smith, P. (2019). The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity. Global Environmental Change, 58, 101944.

  • Han, D. N., Yu, D. Y., & Cao, Q. (2020). Assessment on the features of coupling interaction of the food-energy-water nexus in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 249, 119379.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanes, R. J., Gopalakrishnan, V., & Bakshi, B. R. (2018). Including nature in the food-energy-water nexus can improve sustainability across multiple ecosystem services. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 137, 214–228.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Iqbal, W., Fatima, A., Yumei, H., Abbas, Q., & Iram, R. (2020). Oil supply risk and affecting parameters associated with oil supplementation and disruption. Journal of Cleaner Production, 255, 120187.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jamion, N.A., Lee, K.E., Mokhtar, M., Goh, T.L., Simon, N., Goh, C.T., & Bhat, I.U.H. (2022). The integration of nature values and services in the nature-based solution assessment framework of constructed wetlands for carbon–water nexus in carbon sequestration and water security. Environmental Geochemistry and Health, pp 1–30.

  • Karabulut, A., Egoh, B. N., Lanzanova, D., Grizzetti, B., Bidoglio, G., Pagliero, L., et al. (2016). Mapping water provisioning services to support the ecosystem–water–food–energy nexus in the Danube river basin. Ecosystem Services, 17, 278–292.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khacheba, R., Cherfaoui, M., Hartani, T., & Drouiche, N. (2018). The nexus approach to water-energy-food security: An option for adaptation to climate change in Algeria. Desalination and Water Treatment, 131, 30–33.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kurian, M. (2017). The water-energy-food nexus: Trade-offs, thresholds and transdisciplinary approaches to sustainable development. Environmental Science & Policy, 68, 97–106.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li, M., Fu, Q., Singh, V. P., Ji, Y., Liu, D., Zhang, C., & Li, T. (2019). An optimal modelling approach for managing agricultural water-energy-food nexus under uncertainty. Science of the Total Environment, 651, 1416–1434.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Maass, M. (2017). Integrating food-water-energy research through a socio-ecosystem approach. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 5, 48.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martinez-Hernandez, E., Leach, M., & Yang, A. D. (2017). Understanding water-energy-food and ecosystem interactions using the nexus simulation tool NexSym. Applied Energy, 206, 1009–1021.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nunez-Lopez, J. M., Cansino-Loeza, B., Sanchez-Zarco, X. G., & Ponce-Ortega, J. M. (2022). Involving resilience in assessment of the water-energy-food nexus for arid and semiarid regions. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, pp 1–13.

  • Pan, Y., & Chen, Y. (2022). Spatio-Temporal Evolution Measurement and Obstacle Factors of the Vulnerability of Water-Energy-Food-Ecology Nexus in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 31(5).

  • Rasul, G., & Sharma, B. (2016). The nexus approach to water–energy–food security: An option for adaptation to climate change. Climate Policy, 16(6), 682–702.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ringler, C., Bhaduri, A., & Lawford, R. (2013). The nexus across water, energy, land and food (WELF): Potential for improved resource use efficiency? Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 5(6), 617–624.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saini, D., Singh, O., Sharma, T., & Bhardwaj, P. (2022). Geoinformatics and analytic hierarchy process based drought vulnerability assessment over a dryland ecosystem of north-western India. Natural Hazards, 114(2), 1427–1454.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schlor, H., Venghaus, S., & Hake, J. F. (2018). The FEW-Nexus City index-measuring urban resilience. Applied Energy, 210, 382–392.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sexton, T. R., Silkman, R. H., & Hogan, A. J. (1986). Data envelopment analysis: Critique and extensions. New Directions for Program Evaluation, 1986(32), 73–105.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shi, H., Luo, G., Zheng, H., Chen, C., Bai, J., Liu, T., Ochege, F., & De Maeyer, P. (2020). Coupling the water-energy-food-ecology nexus into a Bayesian network for water resources analysis and management in the Syr Darya River basin. Journal of Hydrology, 581, 124387.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Skees, J. R. (1999). Agricultural risk management or income enhancement. Regulation, 22, 35–48.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smajgl, A., Ward, J., & Pluschke, L. (2016). The water-food-energy Nexus—Realising a new paradigm. Journal of Hydrology, 533, 533–540.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sullivan, C. A. (2011). Quantifying water vulnerability: A multi-dimensional approach. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 25(4), 627–640.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun, L., Lu, H., Zheng, J., et al. (2022). Temporal and spatial evolution of ecological vulnerability and driving force analysis in Xinjiang. Arid Zone Research, 39(01), 258–269.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tang, Z., Sun, G., Fu, M., Wen, C., & Plenković-Moraj, A. (2020). Research on the industrial energy eco-efficiency evolution characteristics of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in the temporal and spatial dimension, china. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(1), 268.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vanham, D. (2016). Does the water footprint concept provide relevant information to address the water–food–energy–ecosystem nexus? Ecosystem Services, 17, 298–307.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu, H., Croot, P., & Zhang, C. (2021). Discovering hidden spatial patterns and their associations with controlling factors for potentially toxic elements in topsoil using hot spot analysis and K-means clustering analysis. Environment International, 151, 106456.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Xu, G., Kang, M., Metzger, M., & Jiang, Y. (2014). Vulnerability of the Human-Environment System in Arid Regions: The Case of Xilingol Grassland in Northern China. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 23(5). :1773–1785.

  • Yan, B., Yuan, Z., Luo, Q., Li, J. Q., Zhai, X. J., Zhang, X., & Zhang, L. G. (2020). The matching degree of water resources and social economy-ecology-energy in the Yangtze River economic belt. Journal of Coastal Research, 104, 535–540.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yuan, M. H., & Lo, S. L. (2020). Ecosystem services and sustainable development: Perspectives from the food-energy-water Nexus. Ecosystem Services, 46, 101217.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yuan, X. C., Wang, Q., Wang, K., Wang, B., Jin, J. L., & Wei, Y. M. (2015). China’s regional vulnerability to drought and its mitigation strategies under climate change: Data envelopment analysis and analytic hierarchy process integrated approach. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 20, 341–359.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, C., Chen, X. X., Li, Y., Ding, W., & Fu, G. T. (2018). Water-energy-food nexus: Concepts, questions and methodologies. Journal of Cleaner Production, 195(10), 625–639.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, L. X., Bi, X., & Huang, Z. J. (2020). Urban industrial land use efficiency under the background of economic transformation in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Resource Science, 42(9), 1728–1738.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zou, L. L., & Wei, Y. M. (2009). Impact assessment using DEA of coastal hazards on social-economy in Southeast Asia. Natural Hazards, 48(2), 167–189.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42071278), the Key Projects of Jiangsu Social Science Foundation (Grant No. 21GLA006), the Major Project of National Social Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 19ZDA084) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (B230207002).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China

    Liming Liu, Junfei Chen & Chunbao Wang

  2. Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China

    Junfei Chen

  3. Jiangsu Research Base of Yangtze Institute for Conservation and High-Quality Development, Nanjing, 210098, Jiangsu, China

    Liming Liu & Junfei Chen

Authors
  1. Liming Liu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Junfei Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Chunbao Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

Liming Liu contributed to validation, formal analysis, investigation, data curation, writing - original draft, and writing - review and editing; Chunbao Wang contributed to conceptualization, data curation, investigation, and writing - review and editing; Junfei Chen contributed to conceptualization, funding acquisition, and investigation.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Junfei Chen.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Liu, L., Chen, J. & Wang, C. Spatiotemporal evolution and trend prediction of regional water–energy–food–ecology system vulnerability: a case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China. Environ Geochem Health 45, 9621–9638 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10653-023-01759-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10653-023-01759-6

Keywords

Search

Navigation