Environmental and Ecological Statistics

, Volume 18, Issue 4, pp 601–617 | Cite as

Hierarchical space-time models for fire ignition and percentage of land burned by wildfires

  • M. A. Amaral-Turkman
  • K. F. Turkman
  • Y. Le Page
  • J. M. C. Pereira
Article

Abstract

Policy responses for local and global fire management as well as international green-gas inventories depend heavily on the proper understanding of the annual fire extend as well as its spatial variation across any given study area. Proper statistical models are important tools in quantifying these fire risks. We propose Bayesian methods to model jointly the probability of ignition and fire sizes in Australia and New Zeland. The data set on which we base our model and results consists of annual observations of several meteorological and topographical explanatory variables, together with the percentage of land burned over a grid with resolution of 1° across Austalia and New Zealand. Our model and conclusions bring improvements on the results reported by Russell-Smith et al. in Int J Wildland Fire, 16:361–377 (2007) based on a similar data set.

Keywords

Wildfires Bayesian hierarchical models Spatial statistics 

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • M. A. Amaral-Turkman
    • 1
  • K. F. Turkman
    • 1
  • Y. Le Page
    • 2
  • J. M. C. Pereira
    • 2
  1. 1.DEIO and CEAUL-University of LisbonLisboaPortugal
  2. 2.Center for Forest Studies, School of AgricultureTechnical University of LisbonLisboaPortugal

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