Abstract
Catalysts for species decline are difficult to identify and are rarely single. The use of predictive models that incorporate multiple factors have proven useful in recognizing major drivers of species declines in multiple systems. In this study, a geographic information systems model was used to evaluate factors contributing to the decline of the Slackwater Darter throughout its distributional range. The species has suffered a precipitous decline, and it is essential to understand conservation threats and to prioritize habitat for restoration and protection. Variables incorporated into the habitat model included land use/land cover, soil and geographic descriptions, hydrologic variables, and others. Habitat where the species has become extirpated or undetectable by conventional sampling was compared to extant populations to identify factors contributing to population loss. Land cover and farm pond density were identified as potential drivers of extirpation. Finally, a model of suitable habitat was used to predict spawning areas in Limestone Creek, where the species was recently discovered. This model identified eight new spawning sites for Slackwater Darter in the system where breeding sites were unknown, and was 44% accurate in its predictive capabilities; however, positive detections were noticeably clustered and indicate the likely influence of some untested variable. With the information provided by this analysis, a framework for habitat protection can be created to assist with restoration of this species.
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Acknowledgements
We thank Jenna, Crovo, Warren Stiles, Davis Todd, Drew Jarrett, Jeffy Zeyl Eve Brantley and Brian Helms for their invaluable suggestions and assistance with the multiple components of this project Project funding was provided by the Alabama Department of Conservation and Natural Resources.
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Appendices
Appendix 1
Appendix 2 External ArcGIS data sources
*All downloaded datasets were transformed and projected into WGS 84/UTM Zone 16 N.
Roads data
Streams data
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Tennessee: http://www.tngis.org/water.htm
County outlines:
State outlines were downloaded from the USA State Boundaries Layer Package provided by esri on arggis.com
https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=540003aa59b047d7a1f465f7b1df1950
Soils data were downloaded from ArcGIS.com as a data download package derived from the 2014 NRCS SSURGO data: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=a23eb436f6ec4ad6982000dbaddea5ea
Land cover data was obtained from the 2011 National Land Cover Dataset: https://www.mrlc.gov/nlcd2011.php
Watershed boundaries were clipped from the National Hydrography Dataset: https://nhd.usgs.gov/wbd.html
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Roy, M.B., Johnston, C.E. & Janosik, A. A habitat risk assessment and breeding site projection for Slackwater darter (Etheostoma boschungi) (Percidae) in Alabama and Tennessee USA. Environ Biol Fish 102, 685–703 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10641-019-00862-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10641-019-00862-x