Temperature effects induced by climate change on the growth and consumption by salmonines in Lakes Michigan and Huron
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We used bioenergetics models to investigate temperature effects induced by climate change on the growth and consumption by Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, lake trout Salvelinus namaycush, and steelhead O. mykiss in Lakes Michigan and Huron. We updated biological inputs to account for recent changes in the food webs and used temperature inputs in response to regional climate observed in the baseline period (1964–1993) and projected in the future period (2043–2070). Bioenergetics simulations were run across multiple age-classes and across all four seasons in different scenarios of prey availability. Due to the increased capacity of prey consumption, future growth and consumption by these salmonines were projected to increase substantially when prey availability was not limited. When prey consumption remained constant, future growth of these salmonines was projected to decrease in most cases but increase in some cases where the increase in metabolic cost can be compensated by the decrease in waste (egestion and excretion) loss. Consumption by these salmonines was projected to increase the most during spring and fall when prey energy densities are relatively high. Such seasonality benefits their future growth through increasing annual gross energy intake. Our results indicated that lake trout and steelhead would be better adapted to the warming climate than Chinook salmon. To maintain baseline growth into the future, an increase of 10 % in baseline prey consumption was required for Chinook salmon but considerably smaller increases, or no increases, in prey consumption were needed by lake trout and steelhead.
KeywordsClimate change Bioenergetics models Salmonines Lake michigan Lake huron
We thank Michael Wiley and James Breck for providing valuable comments on an early draft of manuscript. We also thank Roger Bergstedt, Jixiang He, Gregory Jacobs, Amber Peters, and Jeffery Schaeffer for sharing unpublished data. Simon Hsu and Yo-Jin Shiau provided technical support. This research was funded by the U.S. Geological National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center. This article is Contribution 1864 of the U.S. Geological Survey Great Lakes Science Center.
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