Environmental and Resource Economics

, Volume 69, Issue 4, pp 787–810 | Cite as

Climate Change and Adaptation: The Case of Nigerian Agriculture

  • Francesco Bosello
  • Lorenza CampagnoloEmail author
  • Raffaello Cervigni
  • Fabio Eboli


The present research offers an economic assessment of climate change impacts on the four major crop families characterizing Nigerian agriculture. The evaluation is performed by shocking land productivity in a computable general equilibrium model tailored to replicate Nigerian economic development up to 2050. The detail of land uses in the model has been increased by differentiating land types per agro-ecological zones. Uncertainty about future climate is captured, using, as inputs, yield changes computed by a crop model under ten general circulation models runs. Climate change turns out to be negative for Nigeria in the medium term, with production losses and increase in crop prices, higher food dependency on foreign imports, and GDP losses in all the simulations after 2025. In a second part of the paper, a cost effectiveness analysis of adaptation in Nigerian agriculture is conducted. The adaptation practices considered are a mix of cheaper “soft measures” and more costly “hard” irrigation expansion. The main result is that the cost effectiveness of the whole package depends crucially on the possibility of implementing adaptation by exploiting low-cost opportunities which show a benefit-cost ratio larger than one in all the climate regimes.


Adaptation Agriculture CGE modelling Climate change Impact assessment 

JEL Classification

C68 Q51 Q54 Q15 



This work is an elaboration of the economic assessment part of the “Nigerian Climate Risk Analysis consulting report” prepared for the World Bank, whose financial support is gratefully acknowledged. The content of the present paper, however, does not necessarily represent the World Bank’s view. The authors would also like to thank Prof. Donatella Spano and Dr. Valentina Mereu (Sassari University and CMCC) for providing the DSSAT-CSM crop model results, and Prof. Riccardo Valentini and Dr. Monia Santini (Tuscia University and CMCC) for providing the data on the direct cost of soft and hard adaptation measures in Nigerian agriculture. The authors accept sole responsibility for any errors and omissions.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)LecceItaly
  2. 2.FEEM (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)VeniceItaly
  3. 3.Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative MethodsUniversity of MilanMilanItaly
  4. 4.World BankWashingtonUSA

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