Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Distorted Time Preferences and Time-to-Build in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Energy Industry

  • Published:
Environmental and Resource Economics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

We study the welfare-theoretic consequences of diverging social and private time-preference rates and time-to-build for the transition to a low-carbon energy industry. We show that time-to-build, a prevalent characteristic of capital accumulation in the energy sector, amplifies the distortion induced by the split discount rates. Thus, these two characteristics create in a mutually reinforcing way less favorable circumstances for the introduction of new clean energy technologies as compared to the social optimum, even if welfare losses from emissions are internalized. We discuss resulting policy implications with particular emphasis on the energy sector.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Arrow KJ, Kurz M (1970) Public investment, the rate of return, and optimal fiscal policy. John Hopkins, Baltimore

    Google Scholar 

  • Arrow KJ, Lind RC (1970) Uncertainty and the evaluation of public investment decisions. Am Econ Rev 60(3): 364–378

    Google Scholar 

  • Asea PK, Zak PJ (1999) Time-to-build and cycles. J Econ Dyn Control 23(8): 1155–1175

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bambi M (2008) Endogenous growth and time-to-build: the AK case. J Econ Dyn Control 32(4): 1015–1040

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bellman R, Cooke KL (1963) Differential-difference equations. Academic Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Blanchard OJ (1985) Debt, deficits, and finite horizons. J Polit Econ 93(2): 223–247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boucekkine R, Licandro O, Puch LA, del Rio F (2005) Vintage capital and the dynamics of the AK model. J Econ Theory 120(1): 39–72

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bovenberg AL, Smulders S (1995) Environmental quality and pollution-augmenting technological change in a two-sector endogenous growth model. J Public Econ 57(3): 369–391

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Calvo GA, Obstfeld M (1988) Optimal time-consistent fiscal policy with finite lifetimes. Econometrica 56(2): 411–432

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DeMarzo P, Fishman M, He Z, Wang N (2009) Dynamic agency and the q theory of investment. Mimeo

  • Drèze J, Stern N (1990) Policy reform, shadow prices, and market prices. J Public Econ 42(1): 1–45

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • El-Hodiri MA, Loehman E, Whinston A (1972) An optimal growth model with time lags. Econometrica 40(6): 1137–1146

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fabbri G, Gozzi F (2008) Solving optimal growth models with vintage capital: the dynamic programming approach. J Econ Theory 143(1): 331–373

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frederick S, Loewenstein G, O’Donoghue T (2002) Time discounting and time preference: a critical review. J Econ Lit 40(2): 351–401

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gandolfo G (1996) Economic dynamics, third, completely revised and enlarged edition. Springer, Berlin

    Google Scholar 

  • Van der Gerlagh R, Zwaan B (2003) Gross world product and consumption in a global warming model with endogenous technological change. Resour Energy Econ 25(1): 35–57

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gollier C (2002) Discounting an uncertain future. J Public Econ 85(2): 149–166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gollier C (2010) Pricing the future: the economics of discounting and sustainable development. Unpublished manuscript, Princeton University Press, Princeton (to appear)

  • Goulder LH, Mathai K (2000) Optimal CO2 abatement in the presence of induced technological change. J Environ Econ Manage 39(1): 1–38

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goulder LH, Schneider SH (1999) Induced technological change and the attractiveness of CO2 abatement policies. Resour Energy Econ 21(3–4): 211–253

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Groom B, Hepburn C, Koundouri P, Pearce D (2005) Declining discount rates: the long and the short of it. Environ Resour Econ 32(1): 445–493

    Google Scholar 

  • Hale J (1977) Theory of functional differential equations. Springer, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Heinzel C (2008) Implications of diverging social and private discount rates for investments in new generation technology. A New Case for Nuclear Power? Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Verein für Socialpolitik in Graz, Austria

  • Jaffe AB, Newell RG, Stavins RN (2005) A tale of two market failures: technology and environmental policy. Ecol Econ 54(2–3): 164–174

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kamien MI, Schwartz NL (1992) Dynamic optimization. The calculus of variations and optimal control in economics and management. 2nd edn. Elsevier, Amsterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • Kolmanovskii VB, Myshkis AD (1999) Introduction to the theory and applications of functional differential equations. Kluwer, Dordrecht

    Google Scholar 

  • Mehra R, Prescott EC (2003) The equity premium in retrospect. In: Constantinides GM, Harris M, Stulz R (eds) Handbook of the economics of finance. Elsevier B.V, Amsterdam, pp 887–936

    Google Scholar 

  • Newell RG, Jaffe AB, Stavins RN (1999) The induced innovation hypothesis and energy-saving technological change. Q J Econ 114(3): 941–975

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus WD (2002) Modeling induced innovation in climate-change policy. In: Grübler A, Nakicenovic N, Nordhaus WD (eds) Technological change and the environment. Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, pp 182–209

    Google Scholar 

  • Portney, PR, Weyant, JP (eds) (1999) Discounting and intergenerational equity. Resources for the Future, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Stiglitz JE (1982) The Discount Rate for Benefit-Cost Analysis and the Theory of the Second Best. In: Lind RC, Arrow KJ, Corey GR, Dasgupta P, Sen AK, Stauffer T, Stiglitz JE, Stockfisch JA, Wilson R (eds) Discounting for time and risk in energy policy. John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, pp 151–204

    Google Scholar 

  • Tahvonen O, Salo S (2001) Economic growth and transition between renewable and nonrenewable energy resources. Eur Econ Rev 45(8): 1379–1398

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tirole J (1981) Taux d’Actualisation et optimum second (discount rate and second-best optimum). Rev Econ 32(5): 829–869

    Google Scholar 

  • Van der Zwaan BCC, Gerlagh R, Klaassen G, Schrattenholzer L (2002) Endogenous technological change in climate change modelling. Energy Econ 24(1): 1–19

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Winkler R (2005) Structural change with joint production of consumption and environmental pollution: a neo-Austrian approach. Struct Change Econ Dyn 16(1): 111–135

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Winkler R (2008) Optimal compliance with emission constraints: dynamic characteristics and the choice of technique. Environ Resour Econ 39(4): 411–432

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Winkler R, Brand-Pollmann U, Moslener U, Schlöder J (2005) On the transition from instantaneous to time-lagged capital accumulation. The case of Leontief-type production functions. Discussion-Paper No. 05-30. Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim

  • Yaari ME (1965) Uncertain lifetime, life insurance, and the theory of the consumer. Rev Econ Stud 32(2): 137–150

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ralph Winkler.

Additional information

We are grateful for valuable comments to Stefan Baumgärtner, Johannes Becker, Lucas Bretschger, Timothy Cogley, Hippolyte d’Albis, Marco Lehmann-Waffenschmidt, Normann Lorenz, Till Requate, Maik Schneider, Marcel Thum and Christian Traeger, to participants of the 2007 conferences of EAERE, EEA and Verein für Socialpolitik, of the AFSE Thematic Meeting (Toulouse) and the 3rd Atlantic Workshop on Energy and Environmental Economics (A Toxa), and of seminars in Dresden, Heidelberg and Zürich The usual disclaimer applies.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Heinzel, C., Winkler, R. Distorted Time Preferences and Time-to-Build in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Energy Industry. Environ Resource Econ 49, 217–241 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-010-9431-0

Download citation

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-010-9431-0

Keywords

JEL Classification

Navigation