Skip to main content
Log in

Preference Anomalies, Preference Elicitation and the Discovered Preference Hypothesis

  • Published:
Environmental and Resource Economics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

There is wide-ranging evidence, much of it deriving from economics experiments, of ‘anomalies’ in behaviour that challenge standard preference theories. This paper explores the implications of these anomalies for preference elicitation methods. Because methods that are used to inform public policy, such as contingent valuation, are based on standard preference theories, their validity may be called into question by the anomaly data. However, on a new interpretation, these anomalies do not contradict standard theory but are errors in stated preference that can be expected to disappear as people become more experienced in relevant decision environments. We explore the evidence for this interpretation and what implications follow for preference elicitation methodology.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • M. Allais (1953) ArticleTitleLe Comportement de l’Homme Rationel devant le Risque, Critique des Postulats et Axiomes de l’Ecole Américaine Econometrica 21 503–546 Occurrence Handle10.2307/1907921

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • G. Barron I. Erev (2003) ArticleTitleSmall Feedback-based Decisions and Their Limited Correspondence to Description-based Decisions Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 16 215–233 Occurrence Handle10.1002/bdm.443

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • I. Bateman A. Munro B. Rhodes C. Starmer R. Sugden (1997) ArticleTitleA Test of the Theory of Reference Dependent Preferences Quarterly Journal of Economics 112 479–505 Occurrence Handle10.1162/003355397555262

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bateman, I., D. Kahneman, A. Munro, C. Starmer and R. Sugden (2005), ‘Testing Alternative Models of Loss Aversion: An Adversarial Collaboration’, Journal of Public Economics.

  • Binmore, K. (1994), Playing Fair, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

  • H. Bleichrodt J. L. Pinto P. P. Wakker (2001) ArticleTitleMaking Descriptive Use of Prospect Theory to Improve the Prescriptive Use of Expected Utility Management Science 47 1498–1514 Occurrence Handle10.1287/mnsc.47.11.1498.10248

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. Braga C. Starmer (2003) Does Market Experience Eliminate Preference Reversal? University of Nottingham Mimeo

    Google Scholar 

  • J. Bone J. Hey J. Suckling (1999) ArticleTitleAre Groups More or Less Consistent than Individuals? Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 8 63–81 Occurrence Handle10.1023/A:1007764411446

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Camerer, C. F. (1995), ‘Individual Decision Making’, in J. Kagel and A. E. Roth, eds., Handbook of Experimental Economics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

  • C. F. Camerer R. Hogarth (1999) ArticleTitleThe Effects of Financial Incentives in Economics Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 19 7–42 Occurrence Handle10.1023/A:1007850605129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen, Y. (2005), ‘Incentive-Compatible Mechanisms for Pure Public Goods: A Survey of Experimental Literature’, in C. Plott and V. Smith, eds., The Handbook of Experimental Economics Results, Amsterdam: North-Holland.

  • E. Clarke (1971) ArticleTitleMultipart Pricing of Public Goods Public Choice 11 17–33 Occurrence Handle10.1007/BF01726210

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • V. M. Coppinger V. L. Smith J. A. Titus (1980) ArticleTitleIncentives and Behavior in English, Dutch and Sealed-Bid Auctions Economic Inquiry 18 IssueID1 1–22

    Google Scholar 

  • J. C. Cox D. M.. Grether (1996) ArticleTitleThe Preference Reversal Phenomenon: Response Mode, Markets and Incentives Economic Theory 7 381–405

    Google Scholar 

  • Cox J., B. Roberson and V. Smith (1982), ‘Theory and Behavior of Single Object Auctions’, in V.L. Smith, ed., Research in Experimental Economics, Vol. 2, Greenwich, CT: JAI Press.

  • D. Coursey J. Hovis W. Schultz (1987) ArticleTitleThe Disparity Between Willingness To Accept and Willingness To Pay measures of Value Quarterly Journal of Economics 102 679–690 Occurrence Handle10.2307/1884223

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • R. P. Cubitt C. Starmer R. Sugden (2001) ArticleTitleDiscovered Preferences and the Experimental Evidence of Violations of Expected Utility Theory Journal of Economic Methodology 8 385–414 Occurrence Handle10.1080/13501780110103748

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cubitt, R. P., C. Starmer and R. Sugden, (2004), ‘Dynamic Decisions: Some Recent Evidence from Economics and Psychology’, in I. Brocas and J. D. Carrillo, eds., The Psychology of Economic Decisions, Vol. 2: Reasons and Choices, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

  • R. Cubitt R. Sugden (2001) ArticleTitleDynamic Decision Making Under Uncertainty: An Experimental Investigation of Choices Among Accumulator Gambles Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 22 103–28 Occurrence Handle10.1023/A:1011105524935

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. Falkinger (1996) ArticleTitleEfficient Private Provision of Public Goods by Rewarding Deviations from Average Journal of Public Economics 62 413–422 Occurrence Handle10.1016/0047-2727(95)01549-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • G. Fischer Z. Carmon D. Ariely G. Zauberman (1999) ArticleTitleGoal-based Construction of Preferences: Task Goals and the Prominence Effect Management Science 45 1057–1075 Occurrence Handle10.1287/mnsc.45.8.1057

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • G. Gigerenzer P. M. Todd InstitutionalAuthorNameThe ABC Research Group (1999) Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart Oxford University Press New York

    Google Scholar 

  • T. Gilovich D. Griffin D. Kahneman (Eds) (2002) Heuristics & Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment Cambridge University Press New York

    Google Scholar 

  • D. Grether C. Plott (1979) ArticleTitleEconomic Theory of Choice and the Preference Reversal Phenomenon American Economic Review 69 623–638

    Google Scholar 

  • T. Groves J. Ledyard (1977) ArticleTitleOptimal Allocation of Public Goods: A Solution to the ‘Free-Rider’ Problem Econometrica 45 783–809 Occurrence Handle10.2307/1912672

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • W. M. Hanemann (1991) ArticleTitleWillingness to Pay and Willingness to Accept: How Much Can They Differ? American Economic Review 81 635–647

    Google Scholar 

  • G. W. Harrison R. M. Harstad E. E. Rutström (2004) ArticleTitleExperimental Methods and Elicitation of Values Experimental Economics 7 123–140 Occurrence Handle10.1023/B:EXEC.0000026975.48587.f0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • R. Hertwig A. Ortmann (2001) ArticleTitleExperimental Practices in Economics: A methodological Challenge for Psychologists? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 24 383–403

    Google Scholar 

  • J. R. Irwin G. H. McClelland M. McKee W. Schulze N. Norden (1998) ArticleTitlePayoff Dominance vs Cognitive Transparency in Decision Making Economic Inquiry 36 272–285 Occurrence Handle10.1111/j.1465-7295.1998.tb01713.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. Kagel R. Harstad D. Levin (1987) ArticleTitleInformation Impact and Allocation Rules in Auctions with Affiliated Private Values: A Laboratory Study Econometrica 55 1275–1304 Occurrence Handle10.2307/1913557

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. Kagel D. Levin (1993) ArticleTitleIndependent Private Value Auctions: Bidder Behaviour in First-, Second- and Third-Price Auctions with Varying Numbers of Bidders The Economic Journal 103 868–879 Occurrence Handle10.2307/2234706

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • D. Kahneman (1996) Comment on Plott’s Rational Individual Behavior in Markets and Social Choice Processes: The Discovered Preference Hypothesis K. Arrow E. Colombatto M. Perleman C. Schmidt (Eds) Rational Foundations of Economic Behavior Macmillan and St. Martin’s London 251–254

    Google Scholar 

  • D. Kahneman J. Knetsch R. Thaler (1990) ArticleTitleExperimental Tests of the Endowment Effect and the Coase Theorem Journal of Political Economy 98 1325–1348 Occurrence Handle10.1086/261737

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kahneman D. and Snell J. (1990), ‘Predicting Utility’, in R.M. Hogarth, eds., Insights in Decision Making, Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.

  • D. Kahneman A. Tversky (1979) ArticleTitleProspect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk Econometrica 47 263–291 Occurrence Handle10.2307/1914185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • G. Keren W. Wagenaar (1987) ArticleTitleViolations of Utility Theory in Unique and Repeated Games Journal of Experimental Psychology 13 387–391

    Google Scholar 

  • J. Knetsch (1989) ArticleTitleThe Endowment Effect and Evidence of Non-reversible Indifference Curves American Economic Review 79 1277–1284

    Google Scholar 

  • J. Knetsch J. A. Sinden (1984) ArticleTitleWillingness to Pay and Compensation Demanded: Experimental Evidence of an Unexpected Disparity in Measures of Values Quarterly Journal of Economics 99 507–521 Occurrence Handle10.2307/1885962

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. Knetsch F. -F. Tang R. Thaler (2001) ArticleTitleThe Endowment Effect and Repeated Market Trials: Is the Vickrey Auction Demand Revealing? Experimental Economics 4 257–269

    Google Scholar 

  • Kuilen, G. van de and P. P. Wakker (2004), ‘Learning in the Allais Paradox’, paper presented at FUR XI, Paris, June 2004, Mimeo, University of Amsterdam.

  • S. Lichtenstein P. Slovic (1971) ArticleTitleReversals of Preference Between Bids and Choices in Gambling Decisions Journal of Experimental Psychology 89 46–55 Occurrence Handle10.1037/h0031207

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • List, J. (2003), ‘Does Market Experience Eliminate Market Anomalies’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, 41–71.

    Google Scholar 

  • J. List J. Shogren (1999) ArticleTitlePrice Information and Bidding Behavior in Repeated Second-Price Auctions American Journal of Agricultural Economics 81 942–949 Occurrence Handle10.2307/1244336

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • G. Loewenstein D. Adler (1995) ArticleTitleA Bias in the Prediction of Tastes Economic Journal 105 929–937 Occurrence Handle10.2307/2235159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • G. Loewenstein T. O’Donoghue M. Rabin (2003) ArticleTitleProjection Bias in Predicting Future Utility Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 1209–1248 Occurrence Handle10.1162/003355303322552784

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • G. Loomes P. Moffatt R. Sugden (2002) ArticleTitleA Microeconometric Test of Alternative Stochastic Theories of Risky Choice Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 24 103–130 Occurrence Handle10.1023/A:1014094209265

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • G. Loomes C. Starmer R. Sugden (2003) ArticleTitleDo Anomalies Disappear in Repeated Markets? Economic Journal 113 C153–C166 Occurrence Handle10.1111/1468-0297.00108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • G. Loomes R. Sugden (1983) ArticleTitleA Rationale for Preference Reversal American Economic Review 73 428–432

    Google Scholar 

  • G. Loomes R. Sugden (1998) ArticleTitleTesting Different Stochastic Specifications of Risky Choice Economica 65 581–598 Occurrence Handle10.1111/1468-0335.00147

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCabe, K.A., S.J. Rassenti and V.L. Smith (1990), ‘Auction Institutional Design: Theory and Behaviour of Simultaneous Multiple-Unit Generalisations of the Dutch and English Auctions’, American Economic Review 80, 1276–1283.

  • Noussair, C., S. Robin and B. Ruffieux (2004), ‘Revealing Consumers’ Willingness-To-Pay: A Comparison of the BDM Mechanism and the Vickrey Auction’, Journal of Economic Psychology 25, 725–741.

    Google Scholar 

  • C. R. Plott (1996) ‘Rational Individual Behavior in Markets and Social Choice Processes: The Discovered Preference Hypothesis’ K. Arrow E. Colombatto M. Perleman C. Schmidt (Eds) Rational Foundations of Economic Behavior Macmillan and St. Martin’s London 225–50

    Google Scholar 

  • Plott, C. R. and K. Zeiler (2005), ‘The Willingness to Pay/Willingness to Accept Gap, the ‘‘Endowment Effect’’ and Experimental Procedures for Eliciting Valuations’, American Economic Review, forthcoming.

  • C. Seidl (2002) ArticleTitlePreference Reversal Journal of Economic Surveys 6 621–655 Occurrence Handle10.1111/1467-6419.00184

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. Shogren S. Cho C. Koo J. List C. Park P. Polo R. Wilhelmi (2001) ArticleTitleAuction Mechanisms and the Measurement of WTP and WTA Resource and Energy Economics 23 97–109 Occurrence Handle10.1016/S0928-7655(00)00038-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. Shogren S. Shin D. Hayes J. Kliebenstein (1994) ArticleTitleResolving Differences in Willingness To Pay and Willingness To Accept American Economic Review 84 255–270

    Google Scholar 

  • Shogren J. S. (2003), ‘The X-Chapter. Experimental Methods and Valuation’, in K. G Maler and J. Vincent, eds., Handbook of Environmental Economics, Vol. II, Amsterdam: North-Holland.

  • Schmidt, U., C. Starmer and R. Sugden (2004), ‘Explaining Preference Reversal’, paper presented at FUR XI, Paris June 2004, Mimeo.

  • P. Slovic (1995) ArticleTitleThe Construction of Preferences American Psychologist 50 364–371 Occurrence Handle10.1037/0003-066X.50.5.364

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • P. Slovic B. Fischhoff S. Lichtenstein (1982) Response Mode, Framing and Information-processing Effects in Risk Assessment R. M. Hogarth (Eds) New Directions for Methodology of Social and Behavioral Science: The Framing of Questions and the Consistency of Responses Jossey-Bass San Francisco 21–36

    Google Scholar 

  • P. Slovic A. Tversky (1974) ArticleTitleWho Accepts Savage’s Axiom? Behavioral Science 19 368–373

    Google Scholar 

  • C. Starmer (2000) ArticleTitleDevelopments in Non-expected Utility Theory: The Hunt for A Descriptive Theory of Choice under Risk Journal of Economic Literature 38 332–382

    Google Scholar 

  • R. Sugden (2003) ArticleTitleReference-dependent Subjective Expected Utility Theory Journal of Economic Theory 111 172–191 Occurrence Handle10.1016/S0022-0531(03)00082-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • T. Tideman (1983) ArticleTitleAn Experiment in the Demand Revealing Process Public Choice 41 387–401 Occurrence Handle10.1007/BF00141071

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • A. Tversky D. Kahneman (1991) ArticleTitleLoss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-dependent Model Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 1039–1061 Occurrence Handle10.2307/2937956

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • A. Tversky S. Sattath P. Slovic (1988) ArticleTitleContingent Weighting in Judgement and Choice Psychological Review 95 371–384 Occurrence Handle10.1037/0033-295X.95.3.371

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Huyck, J.B., R.C. Battalio and R.O. Beil (1993), ‘Coordination Failure, Game Form Auctions, and Tacit Communication’, Games and Economic Behaviour 5, 485–504.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Chris Starmer.

Additional information

JEL classifications: C91, D01, D60, D81, D83, H40

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Braga, J., Starmer, C. Preference Anomalies, Preference Elicitation and the Discovered Preference Hypothesis. Environ Resource Econ 32, 55–89 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-005-6028-0

Download citation

  • Accepted:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-005-6028-0

Key words

Navigation