Abstract
We present XEM, an eXplainable-by-design Ensemble method for Multivariate time series classification. XEM relies on a new hybrid ensemble method that combines an explicit boosting-bagging approach to handle the bias-variance trade-off faced by machine learning models and an implicit divide-and-conquer approach to individualize classifier errors on different parts of the training data. Our evaluation shows that XEM outperforms the state-of-the-art MTS classifiers on the public UEA datasets. Furthermore, XEM provides faithful explainability-by-design and manifests robust performance when faced with challenges arising from continuous data collection (different MTS length, missing data and noise).
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
sklearn.ensemble.BaggingClassifier.
sklearn.tree.DecisionTreeClassifier.
sklearn.ensemble.AdaBoostClassifier.
sklearn.linear_model.SGDClassifier.
sklearn.naive_bayes.GaussianNB.
sklearn.ensemble.RandomForestClassifier.
sklearn.svm.SVC.
References
Bagnall A, Lines J, Keogh E (2018) The UEA UCR time series classification archive
Baydogan M, Runger G (2014) Learning a symbolic representation for multivariate time series classification. Data Min Knowl Disc 29(2):400–422
Baydogan M, Runger G (2016) Time series representation and similarity based on local autopatterns. Data Min Knowl Disc 30(2):476–509
Bergstra J, Bardenet R, Bengio Y, Kégl B (2011) Algorithms for hyper-parameter optimization. In: Proceedings of the 25th international conference on neural information processing systems
Breiman L (1996) Bagging predictors. Mach Learn, pp 123–140
Breiman L (2001) Random forests. Mach Learn, pp 5–32
Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone C, Olshen R (1984) Classification and regression trees. The Wadsworth and Brooks-Cole statistics-probability series. Taylor & Francis
Chen T, Guestrin C (2016) XGBoost: a scalable tree boosting system. In: Proceedings of the 22nd ACM SIGKDD international conference on knowledge discovery and data mining
Cussins Newman J (2019) Toward AI security: global aspirations for a more resilient future. In: Center for long-term cybersecurity
Demšar J (2006) Statistical comparisons of classifiers over multiple data sets. J Mach Learn Res 7:1–30
Dietterich T (2000) Ensemble methods in machine learning. Multiple Classifier Syst, pp 1–15
Du M, Liu N, Hu X (2020) Techniques for interpretable machine learning. Commun ACM
Dua D, Graff C (2017) UCI machine learning repository
Ebrahimpour R, Sadeghnejad N, Arani S, Mohammadi N (2012) Boost-wise pre-loaded mixture of experts for classification tasks. Neural Comput Appl 22(1):365–377
Esteva A, Robicquet A, Ramsundar B, Kuleshov V, DePristo M, Chou K, Cui C, Corrado G, Thrun S, Dean J (2019) A guide to deep learning in healthcare. Nat Med 25:24–29
Fauvel K, Masson V, Fromont É, Faverdin P, Termier A (2019) Towards sustainable dairy management - a machine learning enhanced method for estrus detection. In: Proceedings of the 25th ACM SIGKDD international conference on knowledge discovery and data mining
Fauvel K, Balouek-Thomert D, Melgar D, Silva P, Simonet A, Antoniu G, Costan A, Masson V, Parashar M, Rodero I, Termier A (2020a) A distributed multi-sensor machine learning approach to earthquake early warning. In: Proceedings of the 34th AAAI conference on artificial intelligence
Fauvel K, Masson V, Fromont É (2020b) A performance-explainability framework to benchmark machine learning methods: application to multivariate time series classifiers. In: Proceedings of the IJCAI-PRICAI workshop on explainable artificial intelligence
Freund Y, Schapire R (1996) Experiments with a new boosting algorithm. In: Proceedings of the 13th international conference on machine learning
Gama J, Brazdil P (2000) Cascade generalization. Mach Learn 41(3):315–343
Guidotti R, Monreale A, Giannotti F, Pedreschi D, Ruggieri S, Turini F (2019) Factual and counterfactual explanations for black box decision making. IEEE Intell Syst 34(6):14–23
He K, Zhang X, Ren S, Sun J (2016) Deep residual learning for image recognition. In: Proceedings of the 2016 IEEE conference on computer vision and pattern recognition
Jacobs R, Jordan M, Nowlan S, Hinton G (1991) Adaptive mixtures of local experts. Neural Comput 3(1):79–87
Jiang R, Song X, Huang D, Song X, Xia T, Cai Z, Wang Z, Kim K, Shibasaki R (2019) DeepUrbanEvent: a system for predicting citywide crowd dynamics at big events. In: Proceedings of the 25th ACM SIGKDD international conference on knowledge discovery and data mining
Karim F, Majumdar S, Darabi H, Harford S (2019) Multivariate LSTM-FCNs for time series classification. Neural Netw 116:237–245
Karlsson I, Papapetrou P, Boström H (2016) Generalized random shapelet forests. Data Min Knowl Disc 30(5):1053–1085
Karlsson I, Rebane J, Papapetrou P, Gionis A (2020) Locally and globally explainable time series tweaking. Knowl Inf Syst 62:1671–1700
Kotsiantis S, Pintelas P (2005) Combining bagging and boosting. Int J Comput Intell 1(8):372–381
Li J, Rong Y, Meng H, Lu Z, Kwok T, Cheng H (2018) TATC: Predicting Alzheimer’s disease with actigraphy data. In: Proceedings of the 24th ACM SIGKDD international conference on knowledge discovery and data mining
Lipton Z (2016) The mythos of model interpretability. In: Proceedings of the ICML workshop on human interpretability in machine learning
Liu Y, Yao X (1999) Ensemble learning via negative correlation. Neural Netw 12(10):1399–1404
Lundberg S, Lee S (2017) A unified approach to interpreting model predictions. In: Proceedings of the 31st international conference on neural information processing systems
Masoudnia S, Ebrahimpour R (2014) Mixture of experts: a literature survey. Artif Intell Rev 42(2):275–293
Miller T (2019) Explanation in artificial intelligence: insights from the social sciences. Artif Intell 267:1–38
Pedregosa F, Varoquaux G, Gramfort A, Michel V, Thirion B, Grisel O, Blondel M, Prettenhofer P, Weiss R, Dubourg V, Vanderplas J, Passos A, Cournapeau D, Brucher M, Perrot M, Duchesnay E (2011) Scikit-learn: machine learning in python. J Mach Learn Res
Ransbotham S, Khodabandeh S, Fehling R, LaFountain B, Kiron D (2019) Winning with AI. In: MIT sloan management review and boston consulting group
Ribeiro M, Singh S, Guestrin C (2016) “Why should i trust you?”: Explaining the predictions of any classifier. In: Proceedings of the 22nd ACM SIGKDD international conference on knowledge discovery and data mining
Ribeiro M, Singh S, Guestrin C (2018) Anchors: high-precision model-agnostic explanations. In: Proceedings of the 32nd AAAI conference on artificial intelligence
Rudin C (2019) Stop explaining black box machine learning models for high stakes decisions and use interpretable models instead. Nat Mach Intell 1:206–215
Schäfer P, Högqvist M (2012) SFA: a symbolic fourier approximation and index for similarity search in high dimensional datasets. In: Proceedings of the 15th international conference on extending database technology, pp 516–527
Schäfer P, Leser U (2017) Multivariate time series classification with WEASEL+MUSE
Schapire R (1990) The strength of weak learnability. Mach Learn 5:197–227
Selvaraju R, Das A, Vedantam R, Cogswell M, Parikh D, Batra D (2019) Grad-CAM: visual explanations from deep networks via gradient-based localization. Int J Comput Vision 128:336–359
Sesmero M, Ledezma A, Sanchis A (2015) Generating ensembles of heterogeneous classifiers using stacked generalization. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Data Min Knowl Discov 5(1):21–34
Seto S, Zhang W, Zhou Y (2015) Multivariate time series classification using dynamic time warping template selection for human activity recognition. In: Proceedings of the 2015 IEEE symposium series on computational intelligence
Sharkey A, Sharkey N (1997) Combining diverse neural nets. Knowl Eng Rev 12(3):231–247
Shokoohi-Yekta M, Hu B, Jin H, Wang J, Keogh E (2017) Generalizing DTW to the multi-dimensional case requires an adaptive approach. Data Min Knowl Disc 31:1–31
Tuncel K, Baydogan M (2018) Autoregressive forests for multivariate time series modeling. Pattern Recogn 73:202–215
Wang Z, Yan W, Oates T (2017) Time series classification from scratch with deep neural networks: a strong baseline. In: Proceedings of the 2017 international joint conference on neural networks
Wistuba M, Grabocka J, Schmidt-Thieme L (2015) Ultra-fast shapelets for time series classification
Wolpert D (1996) The lack of a priori distinctions between learning algorithms. Neural Comput 8(7):1341–1390
Zerveas G, Jayaraman S, Patel D, Bhamidipaty A, Eickhoff C (2021) A transformer-based framework for multivariate time series representation learning. In: Proceedings of the 27th ACM SIGKDD conference on knowledge discovery and data mining
Zhang H (2004) The optimality of Naïve Bayes. In: Proceedings of the 17th Florida artificial intelligence research society conference
Zhang X, Gao Y, Lin J, Lu C (2020) TapNet: multivariate time series classification with attentional prototypical network. In: Proceedings of the 34th AAAI conference on artificial intelligence
Zou H, Hastie T (2005) Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J R Stat Soc Ser B (Stat Methodol) 67(2):301–320
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the French National Research Agency under the Investments for the Future Program (ANR-16-CONV-0004) and the Inria Project Lab Hybrid Approaches for Interpretable AI (HyAIAI).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Responsible editor: Panagiotis Papapetrou.
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Fauvel, K., Fromont, É., Masson, V. et al. XEM: An explainable-by-design ensemble method for multivariate time series classification. Data Min Knowl Disc 36, 917–957 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10618-022-00823-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10618-022-00823-6