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Stock Price Formation: Precepts from a Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Model

Abstract

In the past, the bottom-up study of financial stock markets relied on first-generation multi-agent systems (MAS) , which employed zero-intelligence agents and often required the additional implementation of so-called noise traders to emulate price formation processes. Nowadays, thanks to the tools developed in cognitive science and machine learning, MAS can quantitatively gauge agent learning, a pivotal element for information and stock price estimation in finance. In our previous work, we therefore devised a new generation MAS stock market simulator , which implements two key features: firstly, each agent autonomously learns to perform price forecasting and stock trading via model-free reinforcement learning ; secondly, all agents ’ trading decisions feed a centralised double-auction limit order book, emulating price and volume microstructures. Here, we study which trading strategies (represented as reinforcement learning policies) the agents learn and the time-dependency of their heterogeneity. Our central result is that there are more ways to succeed in trading than to fail. More specifically, we find that : i- better-performing agents learn in time more diverse trading strategies than worse-performing ones, ii- they tend to employ a fundamentalist, rather than chartist, approach to asset price valuation, and iii- their transaction orders are less stringent (i.e. larger bids or lower asks).

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Acknowledgements

We graciously acknowledge this work was supported by the HSE Basic Research Program and the Russian Academic Excellence Project “5-100” and CNRS PRC nr. 151199, and received support from FrontCog ANR-17-EURE-0017. Also, S.P. is supported by an ATIP-Avenir grant (R16069JS), the Programme Emergence(s) de la Ville de Paris, the Fondation Fyssen, the Fondation Schlumberger pour l’Education et la Recherche and the IRESP (project EPELNOR).

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Lussange, J., Vrizzi, S., Bourgeois-Gironde, S. et al. Stock Price Formation: Precepts from a Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Model. Comput Econ (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-022-10249-3

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Keywords

  • Agent-based
  • Reinforcement learning
  • Multi-agent system
  • Stock markets