| |
Dependent variable—vote for the incumbent
|
|---|
|
NIA
|
IA
|
All
|
|---|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
(4)
|
(5)
|
(6)
|
(7)
|
(8)
|
|---|
|
Belief = pivotal
|
0.0176
|
0.0121
|
0.0188
|
0.00954
|
0.0168
|
0.0110
|
0.0212
|
0.0181
|
|
(0.0253)
|
(0.0248)
|
(0.0351)
|
(0.0330)
|
(0.0211)
|
(0.0207)
|
(0.0259)
|
(0.0261)
|
|
IA
| | | | |
0.116***
|
0.114***
|
0.120***
|
0.120***
|
| | | | |
(0.0246)
|
(0.0238)
|
(0.0276)
|
(0.0267)
|
|
IA * belief = pivotal
| | | | | | |
− 0.00921
|
− 0.0147
|
| | | | | | |
(0.0388)
|
(0.0379)
|
|
Controls
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
|
Constant
|
0.0353**
|
− 0.0129
|
0.156***
|
− 0.0350
|
0.0378**
|
− 0.0797
|
0.0357**
|
− 0.0835
|
|
(0.0137)
|
(0.0729)
|
(0.0342)
|
(0.118)
|
(0.0160)
|
(0.0693)
|
(0.0164)
|
(0.0685)
|
|
No. of obs.
|
5880
|
5880
|
5712
|
5712
|
11592
|
11592
|
11592
|
11592
|
|
R-squared
|
0.437
|
0.441
|
0.394
|
0.405
|
0.422
|
0.428
|
0.422
|
0.428
|
- Dependent variable takes value 1 if the vote is for the incumbent and 0 if the vote is for the challenger. belief \(=\) pivotal is a dummy variable that takes value 1 if the voter believes that he is pivotal in the election outcome and 0 otherwise. IA is a dummy variable that equals 1 if there is an incumbency advantage \((\theta > 0)\) and 0 if there isn’t \((\theta = 0)\). The controls include experimental rounds, gender, participation in a past election and social preferences. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Standard errors are clustered at the individual level. Robust standard errors in parentheses
- *\(p<0.10\); **\(p<0.05\); ***\(p<0.01\)