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Table 5 Effects of pivotality beliefs on voting for the incumbent

From: Sanctioning, selection, and pivotality in voting: theory and experimental results

  Dependent variable—vote for the incumbent
NIA IA All
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Belief = pivotal 0.0176 0.0121 0.0188 0.00954 0.0168 0.0110 0.0212 0.0181
(0.0253) (0.0248) (0.0351) (0.0330) (0.0211) (0.0207) (0.0259) (0.0261)
IA      0.116*** 0.114*** 0.120*** 0.120***
     (0.0246) (0.0238) (0.0276) (0.0267)
IA * belief = pivotal        − 0.00921 − 0.0147
       (0.0388) (0.0379)
Controls No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes
Constant 0.0353** − 0.0129 0.156*** − 0.0350 0.0378** − 0.0797 0.0357** − 0.0835
(0.0137) (0.0729) (0.0342) (0.118) (0.0160) (0.0693) (0.0164) (0.0685)
No. of obs. 5880 5880 5712 5712 11592 11592 11592 11592
R-squared 0.437 0.441 0.394 0.405 0.422 0.428 0.422 0.428
  1. Dependent variable takes value 1 if the vote is for the incumbent and 0 if the vote is for the challenger. belief \(=\) pivotal is a dummy variable that takes value 1 if the voter believes that he is pivotal in the election outcome and 0 otherwise. IA is a dummy variable that equals 1 if there is an incumbency advantage \((\theta > 0)\) and 0 if there isn’t \((\theta = 0)\). The controls include experimental rounds, gender, participation in a past election and social preferences. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Standard errors are clustered at the individual level. Robust standard errors in parentheses
  2. *\(p<0.10\); **\(p<0.05\); ***\(p<0.01\)