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Numerical Assessment of the Informational Influence of Election Campaigns on the Electorate

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A numerical scheme is developed for the assessment of the informational influence of election campaigns on the electorate. It relies on the determination of the probability density function of stochastic dynamic system states that requires a numerical solution of the Fokker–Planck–Kolmogorov equation reduced to a system of ordinary differential equations in the projection form of the Galerkin method. The approximation of the probability density function in state variables is specified on a triangulation in the system of Gaussian basis functions assuming time-dependent expansion coefficients. Convergence of the proposed numerical scheme is examined in the context of the convergence of the mean-square approximation of a function on a simplex. Some features of the algorithmic implementation of the solution are considered and comparative modeling results are reported for test problems.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    A. S. Il’inskii

  2. Academy of Russian Federal Defense Forces, Moscow, Russia

    I. S. Polyanskii

  3. Administration for Information and Telecommunication Support, Service for Special Communication and Information, Russian Federal Defense Forces, Moscow, Russia

    K. O. Loginov

  4. “Evrika” Stock Company, St. Petersburg, Russia

    N. S. Arkhipov

Authors
  1. A. S. Il’inskii
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  2. I. S. Polyanskii
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  3. K. O. Loginov
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  4. N. S. Arkhipov
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Correspondence to A. S. Il’inskii.

Additional information

Translated from Problemy Dinamicheskogo Upravleniya, Issue 68, 2021, pp. 15–28.

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Il’inskii, A.S., Polyanskii, I.S., Loginov, K.O. et al. Numerical Assessment of the Informational Influence of Election Campaigns on the Electorate. Comput Math Model 32, 399–412 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10598-022-09542-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10598-022-09542-5

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