Advertisement

An evolutionary game-theoretic model for ethno-religious conflicts between two groups

  • Lingzhi LuoEmail author
  • Nilanjan Chakraborty
  • Katia Sycara
Article

Abstract

Ethno-religious conflict in multi-cultural societies has been one of the major causes of loss of life and property in recent history. In this paper, we present and analyze a multi-agent game theoretic model for computational study of ethno-religious conflicts in multi-cultural societies. Empirical fact-based research in sociology and conflict resolution literature have identified (a) ethno-religious identity of the population, (b) spatial structure (distribution) of the population, (c) existing history of animosity, and (d) influence of leaders as some of the salient factors causing ethno-religious violence. It has also been experimentally shown by Lumsden that multi-cultural conflict can be viewed as a Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD) game. Using the above observations, we model the multi-cultural conflict problem as a variant of the repeated PD game in graphs. The graph consists of labeled nodes corresponding to the different ethno-religious types and the topology of the graph encodes the spatial distribution and interaction of the population. We assume the structure of the graph to have the statistical properties of a social network with the high degree nodes representing the leaders of the society. The agents play the game with neighbors of their opponent type and they update their strategies based on neighbors of their same type. This strategy update dynamics, where the update neighborhood is different from the game playing neighborhood, distinguishes our model from conventional models of PD games in graphs. We present simulation results showing the effect of various parameters of our model to the propensity of conflict in a population consisting of two ethno-religious groups. We also compare our simulation results to real data of occurrence of ethno-religious violence in Yugoslavia.

Keywords

Conflict behavior Game theory Multi-cultural society Multi-agent systems Oscillation Prisoner’s dilemma Social network Social simulation Steady state 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Ackelson J (2006) Mapping ethnic violence. Int Stud Rev 8(3):492–494 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Axelrod R (1984) The evolution of cooperation. Basic Books, New York Google Scholar
  3. Ball P, Betts W, Scheuren F, Dudukovich J, Asher J (2002) Killings and refugee flow in Kosovo, March–June 1999. Report to the Intl Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia Google Scholar
  4. Barabasi LA, Albert R (1999) Emergence of scaling in random networks. Science 286(5439):509–512 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Bhavnani R, Miodownik D, Nart J (2008) REsCape: an agent-based framework for modeling resources, ethnicity, and conflict. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 11(2) Google Scholar
  6. Ebel H, Bornholdt S (2002) Coevolutionary games on networks. Phys Rev E 66(5):056–118 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Epstein J (2002) Modeling civil violence: an agent-based computational approach. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 99(Suppl. 3):7243–7250 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Goh CK, Quek HY, Tan KC, Abbass HA (2006) Modeling civil violence: an evolutionary multi-agent, game theoretic approach. In: IEEE congress on evolutionary computation, pp 1624–1631 Google Scholar
  9. Gurr RT (2000) Peoples versus states: minorities at risk in the new century. United States Institute of Peace Press, Washington Google Scholar
  10. Horowitz DL (2005) Ethnic groups in conflict. University of California Press, Berkeley Google Scholar
  11. Lim M, Metzler R, Bar-Yam Y (2007) Global pattern formation and ethnic/cultural violence. Science 317(5844):1540–1544 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Lumsden M (1973) The Cyprus conflict as a prisoner’s dilemma game. J Confl Resolut 17(1):7–32 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Luo L, Chakraborty N, Sycara K (2009) Ethno-religious conflicts as prisoner’s dilemma game in graphs. In: Proceedings of international symposium on social intelligence and networking (SIN’09), Vancouver, Canada, Aug 2009 Google Scholar
  14. Luo L, Chakraborty N, Sycara K (2010) Modeling effect of leaders in ethno-religious conflicts. In: Proceedings of intl conf on social computing, behavioral modeling, and prediction (SBP’10), Bethesda, MD, USA, 2010 Google Scholar
  15. Nowak M, Sigmund K (1989) Game-dynamical aspects of the prisoner’s dilemma. Appl Math Comput 30(3):191–213 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Petrovic R (1992) The national composition of Yugoslavia’s population. Yugoslavia Surv 33(1) Google Scholar
  17. Prunier G (2005) Darfur: the ambiguous genocide. Cornell University Press, Ithaca Google Scholar
  18. Santos FC, Pacheco JM, Lenaerts T (2006) Evolutionary dynamics of social dilemmas in structured heterogeneous populations. Proc Natl Acad Sci 103(9):3490–3494 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Schelling TC (1971) Dynamic models of segregation. J Math Sociol 1:143–186 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Srbljinovic A, Penzar D, Rodik P, Kardov K (2003) An agent based model of ethnic mobilisation. J Artif Soc Soc Simul 6(1) Google Scholar
  21. Szabó G, Fáth G (2007) Evolutionary games on graphs. Phys Rep 446(4–6):97–216 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Toft MD (2006) The geography of ethnic violence: identity, interests, and the indivisibility of territory. Princeton University Press, Princeton Google Scholar
  23. UTexasLib (1992) Former Yugoslavia—ethnic majorities from former Yugoslavia: a map folio. URL http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/europe/yugoslav.jpg, courtesy of the University of Texas Libraries
  24. Zimmermann MG, Eguíluz VM (2005) Cooperation, social networks, and the emergence of leadership in a prisoner’s dilemma with adaptive local interactions. Phys Rev E 72(5):056–118 CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Lingzhi Luo
    • 1
    Email author
  • Nilanjan Chakraborty
    • 1
  • Katia Sycara
    • 1
  1. 1.Robotics InstituteCarnegie Mellon UniversityPittsburghUSA

Personalised recommendations