Abstract
Transition models explain long-term and large-scale processes fundamentally changing the structure of a societal system. Our concern is that most transition models are too static. Although they capture a move of focus from static equilibria to transitions between dynamic equilibria, they are still rooted in an “equilibriumist” approach. Improvement is possible with agent-based models that give attention to endogenous system processes called “transformation processes”. These models can render far more dynamic pictures of societal systems in transition, and are no longer remote from descriptions in the emerging transition literature.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Explore related subjects
Discover the latest articles, news and stories from top researchers in related subjects.Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Axelrod R (1997) The evolution of strategies in the iterated prisoner’s dilemma. In: Axelrod R (ed) The complexity of cooperation: agent-based models of competition and collaboration. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Bergman N, Haxeltine A, Whitmarsh L et al. (2008) Modelling socio-technical transition patterns and pathways. J Artif Soc Soc Simul 11(3):7
de Haan J (2007) Pillars of change: a theoretical framework for transition models. Paper presented at the symposium ‘modelling transitions to sustainability’ at the ESEE 2007 conference ‘integrating natural and social sciences for sustainability’
Fowler JH, Laver M (2008) A tournament of party decision rules. J Confl Resolut 52(1):68–92
Frenken K (2006) Innovation, evolution and complexity theory. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham and Northampton
Geels FW (2002) Understanding the dynamics of technological transitions: a co-evolutionary and socio-technical analysis. Centre for studies of Science, Technology and Society, Twente University, Enschede, p 426
Geels FW, Schot JW (2007) Typology of socio-technical transition pathways. Res Policy 36(3):399–417
Greene DL, Leiby P, Tworek E et al (2006) Systems analysis of hydrogen transition with HytTrans. In: Transportation research board annual meeting 2006, Paper #06-2538
Haxeltine A, Whitmarsh L, Bergman N et al. (2008) Conceptual framework for transition modelling. Int J Innov Sustain Dev 3(1–2):93–114
Holling CS, Gunderson LH (2002) Resilience and adaptive cycles. In: Gunderson LH, Holling CS (eds) Panarchy: understanding transformations in human and ecological systems. Island Press, Washington, pp 25–62
Kauffman S (1989) Adaptation on rugged fitness landscapes. In: Stein E (ed) Lectures in the science of complexity. Addison-Wesley, Reading
Kollman K, Miller J, Page S (1992) Adaptive parties in spatial elections. Am Polit Sci Rev 86:929–937
Kollman K, Miller J, Page S (1998) Political parties and electoral landscapes. Br J Polit Sci 28:139–158
Laver M (2005) Policy and the dynamics of political competition. Am Polit Sci Rev 99(2):263–281
Laver M, Schilperoord M (2007) Spatial models of political competition with endogenous political parties. Philos Trans R Soc B 362(1485):1711–1721
Nelson RR, Winter SG (1982) An evolutionary theory of economic change. Belknap—Harvard University Press, Cambridge
Rip A, Kemp R (1998) Technological change. In: Rayner S, Malone EL (eds) Human choice and climate change, vol 2. Battelle Press, Columbus, pp 327–399
Rotmans J (2005) Societal innovation: between dream and reality lies complexity. ERIM, Erasmus Research Institute of Management, Rotterdam
Rotmans J (2006) Tools for integrated sustainability assessment: a two-track approach. The Integr Assess J 6(4):35–57
Rotmans J, Loorbach D (2008) Transition management: reflexive governance of societal complexity through searching, learning and experimenting. In: Van den Bergh JCJM, Bruinsma FR (eds) The transition to renewable energy: theory and practice. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham
Rotmans J, Kemp R, van Asselt MBA (2001) More evolution than revolution: transition management in public policy. Foresight 3(1):15–32
Schelling T (1971) Dynamic models of segregation. J Math Sociol 1:143–186
Schwoon M, Alkemade F, Frenken K et al (2006) Flexible transition strategies towards future well-to-wheel chains: an evolutionary modelling approach. FNU working paper
Struben JR (2006) Identifying challenges for sustained adoption of alternative fuel vehicles and infrastructure. MIT sloan research paper no. 4625-06. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=927012
Struben JR, Sterman J (2006) Transition challenges for alternative fuel vehicle and transportation systems. MIT sloan research paper no. 4587-06. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=881800
van Asselt MBA, Rotmans J (2002) Uncertainty in integrated assessment modellig: from positivism to pluralism. Clim Chang 54:75–105
Watts DI, Strogatz SH (1998) Collective dynamics off ‘small-world’. Networks 393(6684):440–442
Weaver PM, Rotmans J, Turnpenny J et al. (2007) Methods and tools for integrated sustainability assessment (MATISSE): A new European project. In: George C, Kirkpatrick C (eds) Impact assessment and sustainable development: European practice and experience, chapter 9. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Open Access This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0), which permits any noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are credited.
About this article
Cite this article
Schilperoord, M., Rotmans, J. & Bergman, N. Modelling societal transitions with agent transformation. Comput Math Organiz Theor 14, 283–301 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10588-008-9036-0
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10588-008-9036-0