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Increasing impacts of summer extreme precipitation and heatwaves in eastern China

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Abstract

Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) and heatwaves (HWs) can trigger floods, droughts, and other natural disasters, resulting in severe socioeconomic losses in eastern China. However, the accurate links between EPEs and HWs and future changes in these extremes are not fully resolved, which potentially impedes disaster warning and preparedness efforts. This study examines historical and future changes in summer EPEs and HWs in eastern China based on observations and model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. The results show that EPEs and HWs in eastern China have increased in the past four decades and are projected to rise in the future. According to multi-model projections, the Yangtze River Basin, along with areas to its south, are expected to experience an increase in compound disasters due to HWs and EPEs. High values of the multi-year mean total population exposure to EPEs and HWs are observed in the North China Plain, Yangtze River Delta, Sichuan Basin, and southeast coast. The total population exposure to EPEs shows a decreasing trend under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 245 and SSP585 scenarios during 2021–2100, consistent with future population decline. However, the annual total population exposure to HWs will increase, reaching nearly 3.0 billion and 5.0 billion by the end of the century under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Within the context of global warming, the relationship between the mean-state of precipitation and maximum temperature as well as the relationship between extreme precipitation and heatwaves shift from negative correlation in the historical period to positive correlation in future projections for eastern China.

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Data availability

The daily 2-m maximum surface air temperature and precipitation are available at http://data.cma.cn/en. The daily climate model outputs are obtained from http://nex-gddp-cmip6.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/index.html#NEX-GDDP-CMIP6. The provincial and gridded population projection for China under SSPs from 2010 to 2100 is downloaded from https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4605713.v1.

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Funding

This research is supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2019YFA0606701), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42192562, 41731173, and 42106202), the Independent Research Project Program of State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (LTOZZ2201), and the Development Fund of SCS Institute of Oceanology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (SCSIO202208).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China

    Yulong Yao

  2. Global Ocean and Climate Research Center, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China

    Yulong Yao

  3. Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08540-6654, USA

    Wei Zhang

  4. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO, 80305, USA

    Wei Zhang

  5. Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA

    Ben Kirtman

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  1. Yulong Yao
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  2. Wei Zhang
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Contributions

Conceptualization: Y. Yao; methodology: Y. Yao; formal analysis and investigation: W. Zhang; writing—original draft preparation: Y. Yao; writing—review and editing: W. Zhang and B. Kirtman.

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Correspondence to Wei Zhang.

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Yao, Y., Zhang, W. & Kirtman, B. Increasing impacts of summer extreme precipitation and heatwaves in eastern China. Climatic Change 176, 131 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03610-4

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