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Climate change–induced immigration to the United States has mixed influences on public support for climate change and migrants

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Abstract

Global climate change has begun to cause widespread forced migration and drivers of this phenomenon are expected to intensify in the future, which is likely to result in increased immigration to countries in the Global North such as the USA. Here, two studies examine how belief in this phenomenon could influence Americans’ opinions on climate change and immigration. A correlational pilot study demonstrated that belief in climate-immigration was associated with greater climate change concerns and policy support. It was also associated with attributing more blame to immigrations for their predicament, especially among Republicans. This provides initial correlational evidence that that awareness of climate-induced migration is associated with pro-social responses. However, an experimental messaging study demonstrated that reading about climate-induced immigration (vs. immigration not linked to climate change) did not change participants’ climate concerns or climate policy support. Instead, reading about climate-induced immigration resulted in more negative attitudes toward immigrants. Our findings suggest that, as this issue becomes more salient in political discourse, policymakers, reporters, advocates, and other communicators should attend to the possibility of unintended negative consequences of their messages. Future research is needed to determine how to foster support on climate action while minimizing backlash against immigrants.

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Notes

  1. Climate change outcomes were assessed comparing the climate change–induced immigration condition to the climate change-only condition. Immigration outcomes were assessed comparing the climate change–induced immigration condition to the immigration-only condition, as these comparisons are most relevant for assessing the impacts of the climate-immigration link. Results comparing the climate-only condition to the immigration-only condition, which were not of specific interest to the study, are included in Table B.5 in Appendix B for reference.

  2. Results showing the effects of condition without political party are shown in Table B.4 in Appendix B.

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Funding

This work was funded by a grant from the University of Michigan’s Graham Institute of Sustainability Carbon Neutrality Acceleration Program (CNAP). Data and materials are available upon reasonable request.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Owen Graduate School of Management, Law School, Climate Change Research Network, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA

    Ash Gillis

  2. The Media School, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, USA

    Nathaniel Geiger & Melanie A. Sarge

  3. Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

    Kaitlin Raimi

  4. Stephen M. Ross School of Business, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

    Julia Lee Cunningham

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  1. Ash Gillis
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Contributions

AG and NG contributed equally in writing the manuscript; AG, NG, KT, and JLC designed the studies; AG and NG conducted analyses; KT, JLC, and MS edited the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Ash Gillis.

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Gillis, A., Geiger, N., Raimi, K. et al. Climate change–induced immigration to the United States has mixed influences on public support for climate change and migrants. Climatic Change 176, 48 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03519-y

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