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The impact of climate change on drought and its adaptation strategies: findings from general circulation models and households in Tien Giang Province, Vietnam

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Abstract

Drought is one of the most frequent and widespread natural hazards in Tien Giang province of Vietnam, which is aggravating under the influence of climate change. As agriculture is the primary economy of the province, it is crucial to understand the influence of climate change on drought severity and how the local farmers perceive and adapt to climate change. Therefore, to examine the impacts of climate change on drought in the Tien Giang province in the Mekong Delta, the present study used three General Circulation Models (GCMs)—ACCESS 1.3, CNRM-CM5, and MRI-CGCM3 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In addition, the study evaluated household-level adaptation strategies based on structured questionnaire-based household survey data and focus group discussion. This study finds that the drought will be getting more severe in the future in the province based on using three GCMs and two climate change scenarios. The estimated results of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) show that there would be many potential extreme drought years between 2020 and 2050. The results from the questionnaire survey depicted that the household perception of drought is moderate in the Mekong Delta. The current adaptation measures are sufficient to adapt to moderate drought and can be improved to adapt to more potential extreme drought conditions in the future. This study provides important insights for decision-makers to manage future drought situations in the Mekong region.

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Data Availability

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Disaster Preparedness, Mitigation and Management, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani, Thailand

    Bui Phan Quoc Nghia & Indrajit Pal

  2. Urban Innovation and Sustainability, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani, Thailand

    Malay Pramanik

  3. School of Public Policy, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, India

    Rajarshi Dasgupta

  4. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama, Japan

    Rajarshi Dasgupta

Authors
  1. Bui Phan Quoc Nghia
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  2. Indrajit Pal
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  3. Malay Pramanik
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  4. Rajarshi Dasgupta
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Contributions

• Bui Phan Quoc Nghia: conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis, investigation, writing—original draft.

• Indrajit Pal: conceptualization, methodology, writing—review and editing.

• Malay Pramanik: writing—review and editing, visualization.

• Rajarshi Dasgupta: writing—review and editing.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Bui Phan Quoc Nghia.

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This article is from a thesis of Mr. Bui Phan Quoc Nghia at the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT). All procedures were monitored by the thesis committee and followed AIT rules. For more details on ethical approval, please contact Dr. Indrajit Pal, chair of the thesis committee and the author of this manuscript.

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Nghia, B.P.Q., Pal, I., Pramanik, M. et al. The impact of climate change on drought and its adaptation strategies: findings from general circulation models and households in Tien Giang Province, Vietnam. Climatic Change 175, 18 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03473-1

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