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Contemporary climate change velocity for near-surface temperatures over India

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Abstract

Velocity of climate change (VoCC), also known as climate velocity, has been widely used as a climate change metric to inform the past and projected impacts of climate change on biodiversity globally. It is a generalized climate-landscape metric that does not involve any biological assumptions and is beneficial for regions with a lack of extensive species presence/absence data. In the current study, the contemporary (1951–2018) climate velocity for India at the annual and seasonal timescales has been assessed using observational and reanalysis datasets for mean near-surface temperature. The associated coverage uncertainty and influence of the resolutions of the datasets have been identified and an attempt has been made to address them. The central, north-western, and southern peninsular regions, along with some parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains, were identified as having experienced the highest annual climate velocities, in the range of 3–8 km/year in the last five decades. The velocities in the post-monsoon (October and November) were found to be the highest (> 4 km/year) as compared to the other seasons owing to the higher temporal, lower spatial gradients and regional dynamics. Finer resolution dataset presents a more realistic estimate of climate velocities owing to better representation of local topographical features and associated microclimate.

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Data availability

The CRU and ERA-5 datasets analyzed during the current study are available in the CRU: Data repository (link: https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/) and the Copernicus Climate Data Store repository (link: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home), respectively.

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Funding

Fellowship was given to D. S. by University Grants Commission (UGC), Government of India, JRF Fellowship no. 3724/(OBC) (NET-NOV.2017), during the initial stages of the study. Scholarship by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the financial support of the AXA Research Fund were provided to D. S. during the later stage of this study. The contents of this paper are solely the liability of the lead author and under no circumstances may be considered as a reflection of the position of the AXA Research Fund and/or the IPCC.

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  1. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Bhopal, Academic Building 2, Bhopal By-Pass Road, Bhauri, Bhopal, 462066, India

    Disha Sachan, Pankaj Kumar & Md. Saquib Saharwardi

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Sachan, D., Kumar, P. & Saharwardi, M.S. Contemporary climate change velocity for near-surface temperatures over India. Climatic Change 173, 24 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03418-8

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