Abstract
Climate change and indebtedness have been repeatedly highlighted as major causes of distress for rural households in India. However, despite the close connection between climate conditions and rural livelihoods, there has been little attempt to systematically examine the association between the two. To address this gap, we combine national-level longitudinal data from IHDS, MERRA-2, and the Indian Ministry of Agriculture to study the impact of climate anomalies on household indebtedness across rural India. Using a multilevel longitudinal approach that accounts for potential confounders at household, village, and district levels, we find pervasive effects of season-specific, 5-year climate anomalies on multiple dimensions of household debt, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas. Most notably, temperature anomalies in the winter cropping season in arid and semi-arid areas are associated with increasing household indebtedness. We further find that climate change interacts with existing socioeconomic differences—caste and landholding in particular—to deepen both the size and the depth of indebtedness for rural households.
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Acknowledgements
We would like to express our gratitude to Philip McDaniel, GIS Librarian at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, for his help with the preparation of the maps presented in this paper. We would further like to thank Doug Hopping, Doctoral Candidate, UNC, Chapel Hill, for his inputs on the MERRA-2 data used here. We would also like to acknowledge the Indian Human Development Survey, NASA GMAO, and the Ministry of Agriculture-Government of India, for respectively making the IHDS, MERRA-2, and district agriculture data publicly available. We would also like to express our appreciation or the three anonymous reviewers, whose comments helped us in significantly improving our paper.
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Kandikuppa, S., Gray, C. Climate change and household debt in rural India. Climatic Change 173, 20 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03407-x
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Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03407-x