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Projecting the impact of human activities and climate change on water resources in the transboundary Sre Pok River Basin

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Abstract

This study aims to project the compound impacts of climate change and human activities, including agriculture expansion and hydropower generation, on the future water availability in the Sre Pok River Basin. The five regional climate models (RCMs): ACESS, REMO2009, MPI, NorESM, CNRM were selected for the future climate projection under two scenarios, i.e., RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Our results reveal that the future annual rainfall is expected to decrease by 200 mm, whereas the average temperature is expected to increase by 0.69 to 4.16 °C under future scenarios. The future water availability of Sre Pok River Basin was projected using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Next, the CROPWAT model was used to examine the irrigation water requirement and the HEC-ResSim model to simulate the hydropower generation of Buon Tuar Sarh reservoir. The future simulation indicates the decrease in future water availability, increasing demand for irrigation water and decreases in hydropower generation for the future periods. The irrigated areas are increased from 700 to 1500 ha as per the provincial development plan. This study also examines the present and future drought conditions of Sre Pok River via streamflow drought index (SDI). Our results expect to contribute toward supporting the planning and management of water resources for agriculture and to efficiently cope with drought conditions in the studied basin and beyond.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to express their sincere gratitude to the USAID-funded PEER project “Connecting climate change, hydrology, and fisheries for energy and food security in Lower Mekong Basin” (Thailand and Cambodia — Project 6-436) carried out in co-operation with the Asian Institute of Technology, Stockholm Environmental Institute, Inland Fisheries Research and Development Institute, and Arizona State University. The authors would also like to express sincere thanks to National Hydro-Meteorological Service of Vietnam, Mekong River Commission (MRC), Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (DARD) for providing necessary data and information to conduct this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Engineering and Management, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathum Thani, 12120, Thailand

    Pragya Pradhan, Trang Thi Huyen Pham, Sangam Shrestha & Ho Huu Loc

  2. National Institute of Education, Earth Observatory of Singapore, The Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore

    Edward Park

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  1. Pragya Pradhan
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  2. Trang Thi Huyen Pham
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  4. Ho Huu Loc
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  5. Edward Park
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Correspondence to Ho Huu Loc.

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Pradhan, P., Pham, T.T.H., Shrestha, S. et al. Projecting the impact of human activities and climate change on water resources in the transboundary Sre Pok River Basin. Climatic Change 172, 26 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03367-2

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