Abstract
Over the past 120 years, major temporal variations in river flows, lake levels, flood occurrence, wildlife abundance, and vegetation communities, coupled with spatial heterogeneity, have provided fertile ground for narratives of change within the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD). In this paper, I show that simple cause-effect explanations and reliance on short-term datasets have misled through over-generalization and have failed to account for the ecosystem’s natural range of variation. Spring break-up discharge correctly predicts 71 to 90% of the binary outcomes (floods, no floods), but break-up discharge is weakly-related to flood magnitude. River regulation has not reduced Peace River spring flood frequency or magnitude. Contrary to popular belief, spring break-up discharge to the PAD from the Peace River’s point of regulation at Hudson Hope has increased, not decreased, since regulation. Conversely, suppression of early May to late August discharge is the most noteworthy effect of Peace River regulation, but its ecological impacts remain poorly documented. Flows of the Peace and Athabasca Rivers are strongly correlated and exhibit similar daily, annual, and decadal patterns. An 8-year highstand of Lake Athabasca occurred just prior to river regulation. Lake Athabasca levels prior to the 1960s and after reservoir-filling did not differ significantly but were 60–80 cm lower than during the 1960–1967 highstand. Climatic changes have been complex. The clearest trends are winter warming and a PDSI regime shift from wet and variable to drier and less variable conditions since 1980. Spring flooding is preceded by greater winter precipitation upstream of the PAD and colder winters at the PAD. Spring ice-run floods without ice jams can recharge portions of the PAD including perched basins. I describe two water management approaches that would recharge large areas. Ecosystem complexity and cognitive biases hamper greater understanding of the dynamics of this globally significant ecosystem.
Similar content being viewed by others
Availability of data and material
Data are provided in the Supplementary Information.
Code availability
Not applicable.
References
Beltaos S (2008) Hydro-climatic impacts on the ice cover of the lower Peace River. Hydrol Proc 22. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6911
Beltaos S (2014) Comparing the impacts of regulation and climate on ice-jam flooding of the Peace-Athabasca Delta. Cold Reg Sci Tech. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2014.08.006
Beltaos S (2018) Frequency of ice-jam flooding of Peace-Athabasca Delta. Can J Civ Engin. https://doi.org/10.1139/cjce-2017-0434
Beltaos S et al (2006) Ice regime of the lower Peace River and ice-jam flooding of the Peace-Athabasca Delta. Hydrol Proc 20:4009–4029
Brock BE et al (2010) Flood frequency variability during the past 80 years in the Slave River Delta, NWT, as determined by multi-proxy paleolimnological analysis. Can Wat Res J 35(3):281–300
Hall RI et al (2018) Discussion of “Frequency of ice-jam flooding of Peace-Athabasca Delta.” Can J Civ Engin. https://doi.org/10.1139/cjce-2018-0407
Hugenholtz CH et al (2009) Application of floodplain stratigraphy to determine the recurrence of ice-jam flooding along the lower Peace and Athabasca Rivers. Can Water Res J 34(1):1–16
Jasek M (2003) Ice jam release surges, ice runs, and breaking fronts: field measurements, physical descriptions, and research needs. Can J Civ Engin. https://doi.org/10.1139/L02-072
Jasek M (2017) The importance of break-up front celerity in the genesis of a spring flood: the 2014 Peace River ice jam flood of the Peace-Athabasca Delta. CGU HS Committee on River Ice Processes and the Environment, 19th Workshop on the Hydraulics of Ice Covered Rivers, Whitehorse, Yukon, 9–12 July 2017
Jasek M (2019) An emerging picture of Peace River break-up types that influence ice jam flooding of the Peace-Athabasca Delta, Part 1: The 2018 Peace River break-up. CGU HS Committee on River Ice Processes and the Environment, 20th Workshop on the Hydraulics of Ice Covered Rivers, Ottawa, ON, 14–16 May 2019
Jasek M et al (2005) Numerical modeling of storage release during dynamic river ice break-up. CGU HS Committee on River Ice Processes and the Environment, 13th Workshop on the Hydraulics of Ice Covered Rivers, Hanover, NH, 15–16 September 2005
Kay JL et al (2019) Bi-directional hydrological changes in perched basins of the Athabasca Delta (Canada) in recent decades caused by natural processes. Environ Res Comm. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab37e7
Livingston J (2004) Reconstructing the lower Athabasca River ice-jam flood frequency from ice-scarred trees and flood bed sediments. BC Hydro, Burnaby, BC
PADIC (Peace-Athabasca Delta Implementation Committee) (1987) Peace-Athabasca Delta water management works evaluation. Final report, Govts of Canada, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ottawa, ON
Prowse TD, Conly M (1998) Effects of climatic variability and flow regulation on ice jam flooding of a northern delta. Hydrol Proc 12:1589–1610
Remmer CR et al (2020a) Multi-year isoscapes of lake water balances across a dynamic northern freshwater delta. Environ Res Lett 15. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb267
Remmer CR et al (2020b) Delineating extent and magnitude of river flooding to lakes across a northern delta using water isotope tracers. Hydrol Proc 34. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13585
Romolo L et al (2006) The synoptic climate controls on hydrology in the upper reaches of the Peace River Basin. Part I: Snow Accumulation. Hydrol Proc 20:4097–4111
Smith DG (2003) 1100 years of ice-jam flooding in the Peace River Delta interpreted from flood bed sediments and ice-scarred trees. In: Hicks F (ed) The 12th workshop on the hydraulics of ice covered rivers. Committee on river ice processes and the environment. Canadian Geophysical Union, hydrology section, Edmonton, AB
Soper JD (1951) Waterfowl and related investigations in the Peace Athabasca Delta region of Alberta, 1949. Wildl Manage Bull, Series 2, No. 2. Ottawa, ON
Straka JR et al (2018) “We used to say rats fell from the sky after a flood”: Temporary recovery of muskrat following ice jams in the Peace-Athabasca Delta. Arctic 71(2). https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic4714
Thorpe W (1986) Review of the literature and miscellaneous other parameters relating to water levels in the Peace Athabasca Delta particularly with respect to the effect on muskrat numbers. Wood Buffalo National Park, Ft. Smith, NT
Timoney K (2002) A dying delta? A case study of a wetland paradigm. Wetlands 22:282–300
Timoney K (2006) Landscape cover change in the Peace-Athabasca Delta, 1927–2001. Wetlands 26:765–778
Timoney KP (2009) Three centuries of change in the Peace-Athabasca Delta, Canada. Clim Change 93(3–4):485–515
Timoney KP (2013) The Peace-Athabasca Delta: portrait of a dynamic ecosystem. Univ of Alberta Press, Edmonton, AB
Timoney KP (2020) Observations of recent flooding along the lower Peace and Athabasca Rivers and the Peace-Athabasca Delta. Report for BC Hydro, Burnaby, BC
Timoney KP et al (1997) Spring ice-jam flooding of the Peace-Athabasca Delta: evidence of a climatic oscillation. Clim Change 35(4):463–483
Timoney K, Lee P (2016) Changes in the areal extents of the Athabasca River, Birch River, and Cree Creek Deltas, 1950–2014, Peace-Athabasca Delta, Canada. Geomorph 258:95–107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.01.011
Timoney K et al (2018) Discussion of “Frequency of ice-jam flooding of Peace-Athabasca Delta.” Can J Civ Engin. https://doi.org/10.1139/cjce-2018-0409
Wells N, et al (2004) A self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index. J of Clim 17:2335–2351
Wolfe BB et al (2006) Reconstruction of multi-century flood histories from oxbow lake sediments, Peace-Athabasca Delta, Canada. Hydrol Proc 20:4131–4153
Wolfe BB et al (2020) Past variation in lower Peace River ice-jam flood frequency. Environ Rev. https://doi.org/10.1139/er-2019-0047
Funding
This study was conducted without funding. Over the decades, funding for work that has contributed to my knowledge of the PAD has come from Treeline Ecological Research, BC Hydro, Parks Canada/Wood Buffalo National Park, and 11 other agencies.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethics approval
Not applicable.
Consent to participate
Not applicable.
Consent for publication
Not applicable.
Conflict of interest/Competing interests
The author declares no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Timoney, K.P. Flooding in the Peace-Athabasca Delta: climatic and hydrologic change and variation over the past 120 years. Climatic Change 169, 34 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03257-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03257-z