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Crop-climate model in support of adjusting local ecological calendar in the Taxkorgan, eastern Pamir Plateau

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Abstract

Climate variability and changes threaten agriculture. In response, farmers have been forced to adjust farming practices according to locally available options. Ethnoecological knowledge of surrounding environmental events inform such adjustments. This study aims to explore observed changes in the crop calendar and changes in crop yield as response to climatic variability to support adjusting the local crop calendar. Interviews with local leaders and group discussions with farmers were organized. Climatic indices such as growing degree days (GDD) and crop evapotranspiration (ETc) were calculated and regressed with crop production data (1988–2017) from Taxkorgan County of Xinjiang, China, using the partial least square regression (PLS) technique. Survey data revealed that the sowing dates of important crops began earlier than previous decades. Spatial data showed that the growing season advanced 3.2 days per decade. PLS results suggest that GDD and ETc significantly affect crop yield. GDD during the growth period had a significant positive impact, indicating that recent warming is beneficial for crop yields in these regions. ETc during the growth period mostly had a negative impact, suggesting the need for ample water to improve crop yields in the context of further warming. The current shift in sowing is corroborated by early heat accumulation, and crop calendar adjustments can reasonably increase yields. Our results are applicable to agricultural decisions at the farm level following site-specific fieldwork. Optimal planting dates can be determined by combining results from our study and other suitable farming practices to strengthen the resilience of local ecological calendars to climate change.

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Acknowledgements

We are thankful to the participants of the field survey for their cooperation and time. Contributions from other co-researchers—Austin Smith, and the participants of field surveys—Milu Mamat—are also acknowledged with much gratitude.

Availability of data and materials

The datasets generated and analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Code availability

Codes can be made available upon request.

Funding

This study was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC), grant number 41661144001, the Bureau of International Cooperation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, grant number 151853KYSB20160032.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 132# Lanhei Road, Heilongtan, Kunming, 650201, Yunnan, China

    Huizhao Yang, Jianbo Yang, Liqing Wu & Jianchu Xu

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Huizhao Yang, Lei Han, Jianbo Yang & Liqing Wu

  3. Honghe Center for Mountain Futures, Kunming Institute of Botany, Honghe County, 654400, Yunnan, China

    Sailesh Ranjitkar & Jianchu Xu

  4. N.Gene Solution of Natural Innovation, Kathmandu-23, GPO 44614, Nepal

    Sailesh Ranjitkar

  5. Mid-Western University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Science, Lalitpur, Nepal

    Sailesh Ranjitkar

  6. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China

    Wenxuan Xu & Lei Han

  7. East and Central Asia Regional Office, World Agroforestry (ICRAF), 132# Lanhei Road, Heilongtan, Kunming, 650201, Yunnan, China

    Jianchu Xu

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  1. Huizhao Yang
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  2. Sailesh Ranjitkar
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  3. Wenxuan Xu
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  5. Jianbo Yang
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  7. Jianchu Xu
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Contributions

Conceptualization: Jianchu Xu and Sailesh Ranjitkar. Methodology: Sailesh Ranjitkar and Huizhao Yang. Formal analysis and investigation: Huizhao Yang, Wenxuan Xu, Lei Han, and Liqing Wu. Writing—original draft preparation: Huizhao Yang and Jianbo Yang. Writing—review and editing: Sailesh Ranjitkar and Jianchu Xu. Funding acquisition: Jianchu Xu. Resources: Jianchu Xu. Supervision: Jianchu Xu.

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Correspondence to Sailesh Ranjitkar or Jianchu Xu.

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Yang, H., Ranjitkar, S., Xu, W. et al. Crop-climate model in support of adjusting local ecological calendar in the Taxkorgan, eastern Pamir Plateau. Climatic Change 167, 56 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03204-y

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