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Simulation and estimation of future precipitation changes in arid regions: a case study of Xinjiang, Northwest China

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A Correction to this article was published on 01 November 2021

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Abstract

Precipitation is critical for maintaining the stability of an ecosystem, especially in arid regions. This study primarily focuses on climatic changes during present (from 1985 to 2005) and future (from 2040 to 2059) periods in Xinjiang, Northwest China. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting model is implemented in Xinjiang to efficiently predict the future climate. Moreover, the National Climate Research Center Community Climate System Model version 4 is employed for the mid-21st century under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). Our results indicate that the amount of annual precipitation will increase in the future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in Xinjiang, especially in mountainous areas. The increase in precipitation is predicted to be much smaller under RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5, except in Southern Xinjiang. Moreover, the increasing precipitation predicted in Xinjiang implies that the current humid and warm conditions will persist, thereby further indicating that Xinjiang is still currently suffering from a dry climate. The largest increase in seasonal precipitation is predicted to occur in spring and summer in Tianshan and Northern Xinjiang, whereas this phenomenon is predicted to occur in spring and winter in Southern Xinjiang. In addition, it is predicted that daily heavy precipitation events will occur more frequently in various subregions of Xinjiang, although light rain events will remain dominant. Finally, the relative humidity is closely related to the changes in annual and seasonal precipitation.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41901318).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China

    Haoyang Du, Chen Zhou, Haoqing Tang, Xiaolong Jin, Dengshuai Chen, Penghui Jiang & Manchun Li

  2. Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China

    Haoyang Du, Chen Zhou, Haoqing Tang, Xiaolong Jin, Dengshuai Chen, Penghui Jiang & Manchun Li

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  1. Haoyang Du
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  2. Chen Zhou
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  3. Haoqing Tang
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Du, H., Zhou, C., Tang, H. et al. Simulation and estimation of future precipitation changes in arid regions: a case study of Xinjiang, Northwest China. Climatic Change 167, 43 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03192-z

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