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Determinants of farmers’ adaptation decisions under changing climate: the case of Fars province in Iran

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Abstract

Climate change is a serious concern for the agricultural sector given that this sector is highly dependent on climate conditions. Moreover, farmersʼ adaptation process under changing climate can be explained by the psychological factors and the incorporation of socio-environmental background. Therefore, the current study aimed at socio-cognitive perceptions and extended protection motivation theory (PMT) as the basis. This paper estimated the influence of cognitive factors on individualsʼ views and decisions regarding climate change adaptation. Data from this study came from a survey with 245 rural farmers in temperate mount areas of Fars province, Iran. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to estimate the different factors. Results showed that three core elements of the theory, namely, risk evaluation, adaptation evaluation, and maladaptation, were the statistically significant factors that could directly explain farmersʼ adaptation decisions to adopt appropriate coping strategies under changing climate. Findings also suggested that another structural factor, adaptation incentives, had a statistically significant influence on adaptation decision-making among farmers. The study proposed valuable insights on social discourse to promote adaptation. Findings strongly offered that social discourse should focus more strongly on confirming the truth and timeliness of information that individuals gained. Eventually, further investigations are necessary to conduct the measurement model in other cultures and geographical areas and see how socio-environmental components can influence risk evaluation and adaptation evaluation.

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Acknowledgment

This research paper was partly funded by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA20060303) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences President’s International Fellowship Initiative (PIFI grant no. 2021VCA0004).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

    Samane Ghazali

  2. Department of Geography, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium

    Hossein Azadi & Frank Witlox

  3. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 818 South Beijing Road, Urumqi, 830011, Xinjiang, China

    Hossein Azadi & Alishir Kurban

  4. Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague, Czech Republic

    Hossein Azadi

  5. Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 818 South Beijing Road, Urumqi, 830011, Xinjiang, China

    Alishir Kurban

  6. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Alishir Kurban

  7. Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory for Geo-Information, Urumqi, 830011, China

    Alishir Kurban

  8. Faculty of Environmental Science and Engineering, Babeş-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania

    Nicolae Ajtai

  9. Department of Forest Ecology and Silviculture, University of Agriculture in Krakow, Krakow, Poland

    Marcin Pietrzykowski

  10. Department of Geography, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia

    Frank Witlox

  11. College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, China

    Frank Witlox

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  1. Samane Ghazali
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  2. Hossein Azadi
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Correspondence to Hossein Azadi.

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Ghazali, S., Azadi, H., Kurban, A. et al. Determinants of farmers’ adaptation decisions under changing climate: the case of Fars province in Iran. Climatic Change 166, 6 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03088-y

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