Future projection of maximum potential storm surge height at three major bays in Japan using the maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone

A Correction to this article was published on 23 February 2021

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This study developed an integrated model for the long-term assessment of extreme storm surge heights based on the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of a tropical cyclone, which is used to conduct future climatological projections of maximum potential storm surge height (MPS). We apply the MPS method to three major bays in Japan, Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya, using two mega-ensemble climate change projections: CMIP5 and d4PDF. The sensitivity of MPS change relative to sea surface temperature (SST) change for three major bays in Japan is about 0.12 m/C during tropical cyclone season, which is about 1/10 of the change when considering SST rise only. Both the mean and variance of future MPS values will be much greater, especially in September and under higher representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios.

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We appreciate for three anonymous reviewers for valuable comments.


This work was conducted under the framework of the Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU Program, Grant Number JPMXD0717935498) supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT) and the JSPS Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (KAKENHI).

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Correspondence to Nobuhito Mori.

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The original online version of this article was revised: figure caption for figure 2 was published with figure 3 and viceversa

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Mori, N., Ariyoshi, N., Shimura, T. et al. Future projection of maximum potential storm surge height at three major bays in Japan using the maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone. Climatic Change 164, 25 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-02980-x

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  • Extreme storm surge
  • Maximum potential intensity
  • Tropical cyclone
  • Climate change
  • Future change