Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

MRV framework and prospective scenarios to monitor and ratchet up Brazilian transport mitigation targets

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Transitioning from a carbon-intensive development path to a low-carbon economy requires understanding of emission sources and its drivers. To achieve Nationally Determined Contribution targets discussed under the Paris Agreement, countries must project emission baselines considering different levels of ambition and sectoral performances and monitor government policies and mitigation actions. This study develops a Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) framework based on energy use and carbon emission scenarios for Brazil up to 2030, focusing on transport. Three scenarios are developed based on different political commitments. All scenarios and mitigation actions are discussed under the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change, which is recognized as one of the most important institutional instruments of the National Policy on Climate Change. Results reveal a 41% abatement in CO2e emissions when comparing the most ambitious scenario to the conservative one. MRV framework indicates that Brazil is on track to a low carbon economic transition, although joint action is needed. This is mainly due to the increasing penetration of bioenergy into the transport energy matrix, while electromobility does not expand in Brazil at the pace of major international players such as Europe and China. Special contribution of this paper is on the role of bioenergy in prospective carbon emission scenarios, which is a lack in the literature.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
EUR 32.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or Ebook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Government policy that seeks promotes the expansion of biofuels in the Brazilian energy matrix.

  2. This program was implemented in 2007 and consists of investments in infrastructure and institutional measures, encouraging credit and financing.

  3. Equivalent to PAC, it was implemented in 2017 to invest in logistics, energy, defense, social, and urban infrastructure.

  4. National privatization program.

  5. From private initiative, this program seeks to improve logistics efficiency in Brazil, reducing carbon emissions.

  6. Encourages energy efficiency in various sectors, with emphasis on residences, industries, and transport.

  7. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions.

References

  • Barros S, Berk C (2018). Brazil biofuels annual, Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report number. BR18017, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Washington, DC

  • Bongardt et al. (2016). Reference document on measurement, reporting and verification in the transport sector. GIZ

  • BP. (2018). Energy outlook 2018. Available at: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2018.pdf. Accessed on 20 April 2019

  • Brazil, MCT - Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (2016). Third National Communication of Brazil to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. MCT, Brasília, DF, Brazil, v. 2

  • Brazil, MCT- Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (2017). Annual estimates of greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil. 4th Edition, Brasilia

  • Brazil, MMA - Ministry of the Environment (2014) National inventory of atmospheric emissions from road motor vehicles 2013 Base year 2012 - final report, Brasília

  • Bueno L, Bartrina A (2017) Accounting rules for the achievement of mitigation objectives in non-annex I countries. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH

  • Bunsen T, Cazzola P, Gorner M, Paoli L, Scheffer S, Schuitmaker R, ... & Teter J (2018). Global EV outlook 2018: towards cross-modal electrification

  • Cazzola P, Gorner M, Schuitmaker R, Maroney E (2016). Global EV outlook 2016. International Energy Agency, France

  • CDKN Global (Climate and Development Knowledge Network Global). 2016. News: CDKN and Ricardo energy and environment team up on NDC guidance. Webpage. Available at: http://cdkn.org/2016/06/news-cdknricardo-energy-environment-team-ndc-guidance/?loclang=en_gb.

  • Denton F, Wilbanks TJ, Abeysinghe AC, Burton I, Gao Q, Lemos MC, ... & Warner K (2014). Climate-resilient pathways: adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development. Climate Change, 1101–1131

  • Dimovski, S. (2014) Conceptual framework for monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) of climate change mitigation actions in Macedonia. Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning

  • Doluweera G, Hosseini H, Sow Alpha. (2017) Greenhouse gas emissions reductions in Canada – through electrification of energy services. Canadian Energy Research Institute

  • Eichhorst U, Bongardt D, (GIZ), 2015. Draft MRV blueprint for urban passenger transport NAMAs. Available at: < http://transferproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/TRANSfer_MRV-Blueprint_Urban-Transport_China_draft.pdf>. Accessed on 01 August 2019

  • Eichhorst U, Bongardt D, Fouchard B, Verry D (2017). Mobilise your city-monitoring & reporting approach for GHG emissions

  • Ellis, J., & Moarif, S. (2015). Identifying and addressing gaps in the UNFCCC reporting framework

  • EPE - Energy Research Company (2017). Decennial energy expansion plan (PDE) 2026 – energy efficiency and distributed generation, Brasília

  • EPE - Energy Research Company (2018). Ethanol supply scenarios and Otto cycle demand 2018–2030

  • EPL - Planning and Logistics Company (2018). National Logistics Plan – PNL. Ministry of Infrastructure. Available at: https://www.epl.gov.br/plano-nacional-de-logistica-pnl. Accessed on 01 August 2019

  • Fridel E, Sköld S, Bäckström S (2018) Transport work and emissions in MRV; methods and potential use of data. Lighthouse

  • Füssler J. et al. (2016) Reference document on measurement, Reporting and Verification in the Transport Sector. Final Report. Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit

  • Füssler J. et al. (2018) Reference document on transparency in the transport sector. Measurement, reporting and verification of greenhouse gas emissions. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit

  • Gonçalves DNS, Goes GV, Márcio de Almeida DA, de Mello Bandeira RA (2019) Energy use and emissions scenarios for transport to gauge progress toward national commitments. Energy Policy 135:110997

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grassi G, House J, Dentener F, Federici S, den Elzen M, Penman J (2017) The key role of forests in meeting climate targets requires science for credible mitigation. Nat Clim Chang 7(3):220–226

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gu A, Teng F, Wang Y (2011) Sector mitigation policies and methods in China: measurable, reportable, and verifiable mechanisms. Adv Clim Chang Res 2(3):115–123. https://doi.org/10.3724/sp.j.1248.2011.00115

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2006). IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme. Kanagawa: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

  • La Rovere et al. (2019). Indicators for progress monitoring in the achievement of NDC targets in Brazil. CBC – Centro Brasil no Clima

  • Niizawa H, Hayashi D, Liu X (2020). Features and prospect of China’s national carbon emissions trading scheme. Carbon Management, 1–13

  • Nogueira EM, Yanai AM, de Vasconcelos SS, de Alencastro Graça PML, Fearnside PM (2018) Carbon stocks and losses to deforestation in protected areas in Brazilian Amazonia. Reg Environ Chang 18(1):261–270

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nong D, Siriwardana M (2018) Effects on the US economy of its proposed withdrawal from the Paris Agreement: a quantitative assessment. Energy 159:621–629

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pauw WP, Klein RJT, Mbeva K et al (2018) Clim Chang 147:23. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2122-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • PPMC - The Paris process on mobility and climate. (2015) Transport Day 2015. Available at: < http://www.slocat.net/content-stream/1843>.

  • Robertson K, Jägerbrand A, Eriksson J (2015) Regional transport indicators used in Sweden for measurement, reporting and verification of CO2 emissions. Challenges 6(1):55–70

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sarr B (2018) Nine success factors, for an efficient and transparent MRV system, within the framework of the Paris Agreement (2015 Climate Conference). Carbon Management 9(4):361–366

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schipper L, Marie-Lilliu C, Gorham R (2000) Flexing the link between carbon emissions and transport. World Bank Environment Division

  • Sharma S, Desgain DD (2013). Understanding the concept of nationally appropriate mitigation action. UNEP Risø Centre on Energy, Climate and Sustainable Development. Department of Management Engineering. Technical University of Denmark (DTU)

  • Silva Junior C, Aragão L, Fonseca M, Almeida C, Vedovato L, Anderson L (2018) Deforestation-induced fragmentation increases forest fire occurrence in central Brazilian Amazonia. Forests 9(6):305

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sim S, Oh J, Jeong B (2015) Measuring greenhouse gas emissions for the transportation sector in Korea. Ann Oper Res 230(1):129–151

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Singh N, Finnegan J, Levin K (2016) MRV 101: understanding measurement, reporting, and verification of climate change mitigation. Understanding Measurement 101(August):1–28

    Google Scholar 

  • SLoCAT- Partnership on sustainable low carbon transport. (2017) SLoCAT database on climate methodologies and tools in transport. Version – April 2017

  • Sousa-Neto ER, Gomes L, Nascimento N, Pacheco F, Ometto JP (2018). Land use and land cover transition in Brazil and their effects on greenhouse gas emissions. In Soil management and climate change (pp. 309-321)

  • Urpelainen J, Van de Graaf T (2018) United States non-cooperation and the Paris Agreement. Clim Pol 18(7):839–851

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vieweg M (2017). Bottom-up carbon inventory and MRV of measures. Available at: http://transferproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Transport-carbon-Inventory-and-MRV-of-measures_Paper_Vieweg_2017.pdf. Accessed on 01 August 2019

  • Wills W (2018). Implicações Econômicas e Sociais de Cenários de Emissão de Gases de Efeito Estufa no Brasil até 2050. In Rovere, E. L.L.; Wills, W.; Dubeux, C. B. S; Pereira Jr, A. O.; D’Agosto, M. A; Walter, M. K. C; Grottera, C.; Castro, G.; Schmitz, D.; Hebeda, O.; Loureiro, S. M.; Oberling, D; Gesteira, C.; Goes, G.V.; Zicarelli, I.F.; e Oliveira, T.J.P (2018). Implicações Econômicas e Sociais dos Cenários de Mitigação de GEE no Brasil até 2050: Projeto IES-Brasil, Cenário1.5 ° C. COPPE / UFRJ, Rio de Janeiro, 2018

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to George Vasconcelos Goes.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Goes, G.V., Gonçalves, D.N.S., de Almeida D’Agosto, M. et al. MRV framework and prospective scenarios to monitor and ratchet up Brazilian transport mitigation targets. Climatic Change 162, 2197–2217 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02767-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02767-6

Keywords

Navigation