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How warming and other stressors affect zooplankton abundance, biomass and community composition in shallow eutrophic lakes

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Abstract

We aimed to investigate the influence of environmental factors and predict zooplankton biomass and abundance in shallow eutrophic lakes. We employed time series of zooplankton and environmental parameters that were measured monthly during 38 years in a large, shallow eutrophic lake in Estonia to build estimates of zooplankton community metrics (cladocerans, copepods, rotifers, ciliates). The analysis of historical time series revealed that air temperature was by far the most important variable for explaining zooplankton biomass and abundance, followed, in decreasing order of importance, by pH, phytoplankton biomass and nitrate concentration. Models constructed with the best predicting variables explained up to 71% of zooplankton biomass variance. Most of the predictive variables had opposing or antagonistic interactions, often mitigating the effect of temperature. In the second part of the study, three future climate scenarios were developed following different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) temperature projections and entered into an empirical model. Simulation results showed that only a scenario in which air temperature stabilizes would curb total metazooplankton biomass and abundance. In other scenarios, metazooplankton biomass and abundance would likely exceed historical ranges whereas ciliates would not expand. Within the metazooplankton community, copepods would increase in biomass and abundance, whereas cladocerans would lose in biomass but not in abundance. These changes in the zooplankton community will have important consequences for lake trophic structure and ecosystem functioning.

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Acknowledgements

The authors want to thank the Estonian Environment Board for providing long-term air temperature data and supporting lake monitoring.

Funding

This research was supported by the Estonian Research Council Grants PSG32, PRG709 and institutional research funding IUT 21-2 of the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Chair of Hydrobiology and Fishery, Institute of Agricultural and Environmental Science, Estonian University of Life Sciences, Kreutzwaldi 5, 51006, Tartu, Estonia

    Fabien Cremona, Helen Agasild, Juta Haberman, Priit Zingel, Peeter Nõges, Tiina Nõges & Alo Laas

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  1. Fabien Cremona
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  2. Helen Agasild
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  3. Juta Haberman
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Correspondence to Fabien Cremona.

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Cremona, F., Agasild, H., Haberman, J. et al. How warming and other stressors affect zooplankton abundance, biomass and community composition in shallow eutrophic lakes. Climatic Change 159, 565–580 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02698-2

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