Skip to main content

Will heat stress take its toll on milk production in China?

Climatic Change volume 161, pages 637–652 (2020)Cite this article

Abstract

There are clear signs that milk production growth is leveling off, and recently even declining, in China. Heat stress is one of the main reasons for the recent reduction in milk production. In this study, we computed the change in milk production as a result of heat stress in major milk production areas in China. We constructed a temperature–humidity index (THI) spatial layer to understand the monthly distribution of heat and moisture. We documented specific areas in northern China where cattle were at high risk to heat stress in specific months. THI values exceeded the threshold above which milk production declines during months of June, July, and August. Especially during July, the THI value was higher than the production threshold in recent years (2008 to 2016) and in projected future scenarios (2050 and 2070). THI-based milk yield losses were up from 0.7 to about 4 kg per cow per day in July 2016. These losses are projected to increase from 1.5 to 6.5 kg in 2050 and 2 to 7.2 kg in 2070 (representing production losses between 15 and 50%). These results suggest that climate change will have significant consequences for the dairy sector in major milk-producing areas in China. Our results are useful in identifying areas susceptible to heat stress where adaptive livestock management practices are needed to prevent significant production decreases.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Price includes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

References

  1. Abdela N (2016) Sub-acute ruminal acidosis (SARA) and its consequence in dairy cattle: a review of past and recent research at global prospective. Achiev Life Sci 10(2):87–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.als.2016.11.006

  2. Aggarwal A, Upadhyay R (2013) Heat stress and milk production. In: Aggarwal A, Upadhyay R (eds) Heat stress and animal productivity. Springer, India, pp 53–77

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  3. Alexandratos N, Bruinsma J (2012) World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision

  4. Allore HG, Oltenacu PA, Erb HN (1997) Effects of season, herd size , and geographic region on the composition and quality of milk in the northeast 1. J Dairy Sci 80:3040–3049. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.S0022-0302(97)76271-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Bai Z, Lee MR, Ma L et al (2018a) Global environmental costs of China’s thirst for milk. Clobal Chang Biol 24:2198–2211. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14047

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Bai Z, Ma W, Ma L et al (2018b) China’s livestock transition: driving forces, impacts, and consequences. Sci Adv 4:eaar8534. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aar8534

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Barbosa AM, Real R (2012) Applying fuzzy logic to comparative distribution modelling: a case study with two sympatric amphibians. Sci World J 2012:ID 428206. doi: https://doi.org/10.1100/2012/428206

  8. Baumgard L, Rhoads R (2012) Effects of heat stress on postabsorptive metabolism and energetics. Annu Rev Anim Biosci 1:311–337

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Berhanu B, Seleshi Y, Demisse S, Melesse A (2016) Bias correction and characterization of climate forecast system re-analysis daily precipitation in Ethiopia using fuzzy overlay. Meteorol Appl 23:230–243

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Bernabucci U, Biffani S, Buggiotti L et al (2014) The effects of heat stress in Italian Holstein dairy cattle. J Dairy Sci 97:471–486

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Bertocchi L, Vitali A, Lacetera N et al (2014) Seasonal variations in the composition of Holstein cow’s milk and temperature-humidity index relationship. Animal 8:667–674. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1751731114000032

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Bohmanova J, Misztal I, Cole J (2007) Temperature-humidity indices as indicators of milk production losses due to heat stress. J Dairy Sci 90:1947–1956

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Bouraoui R, Lahmar M, Majdoub A et al (2002) The relationship of temperature-humidity index with milk production of dairy cows in a Mediterranean climate. Anim Res 51:479–491

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Broxton PD, Zeng X, Sulla-Menashe D, Troch PA (2014) A global land cover climatology using MODIS data. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 53:1593–1605. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0270.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Bruegemann K, Gernand E, von Borstel U, Koenig S (2012) Defining and evaluating heat stress thresholds in different dairy cow production systems. Arch fur Tierzucht 55:13–24

    Google Scholar 

  16. Bryant JR, López-Villalobos N, Pryce JE et al (2007) Quantifying the effect of thermal environment on production traits in three breeds of dairy cattle in New Zealand. New Zeal J Agric Res 50:327–338. https://doi.org/10.1080/00288230709510301

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. DAH and NAHS (2018) Development situation of animal husbandry in 2017 and prospect report in 2018 (in Chinese). Department of Animal Husbandry and National Livestock Station. China Agricultural Science and Technology Press, Beijing

  18. Dash S, Chakravarty AK, Singh A et al (2016) Effect of heat stress on reproductive performances of dairy cattle and buffaloes: a review. Vet World 9:235–244. https://doi.org/10.14202/vetworld.2016.235-244

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. De Rensis F, Garcia-ispierto I, López-gatius F (2015) Theriogenology seasonal heat stress: clinical implications and hormone treatments for the fertility of dairy cows. Theriogenology 84:659–666. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.theriogenology.2015.04.021

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Dikmen S, Hansen P (2009) Is the temperature-humidity index the best indicator of heat stress in lactating dairy cows in a subtropical environment? J Dairy Sci 92:109–116. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2008-1370

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Dunn RJH, Mead NE, Willett KM, Parker DE (2014) Analysis of heat stress in UK dairy cattle and impact on milk yields. Environ Res Lett 9. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064006

  22. FAO (2018) Livestock primary. FAOSTAT Stat. Database. URL http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL. Accessed 27 Jul 2019

  23. Fick SE, Hijmans RJ (2017) Worldclim 2: new 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 37:4302–4315

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Gao S, Guo J, Quan S et al (2017) The effects of heat stress on protein metabolism in lactating Holstein cows. J Dairy Sci 100:5040–5049

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Gao S, Ma L, Zhou Z et al (2019) Heat stress negatively affects the transcriptome related to overall metabolism and milk protein synthesis in mammary tissue of midlactating dairy cows. Physiol Genomics 51:400–409

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Hall G, Wang F, Subaryono J (1992) Comparison of Boolean and fuzzy classification methods in land suitability analysis by using geographical information systems. Environ Plan A 24:497–516

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Hansen P (2007) Exploitation of genetic and physiological determinants of embryonic resistance to elevated temperature to improve embryonic survival in dairy cattle during heat stress. Theriogenology 68:242–249

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Hattab T, Ben R, Albouy C et al (2013) The use of a predictive habitat model and a fuzzy logic approach for marine management and planning. PLoS One 8:e76430

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Herrero M, Thornton PK, Sones K et al (2013) Livestock and global change: emerging issues for sustainable food systems. Proc Natl Acad Sci 110:20878–20881. https://doi.org/10.1073/PNAS.1321844111

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Kadzere CT, Murphy MR, Silanikove N, Maltz E (2002) Heat stress in lactating dairy cows: a review. Livest Prod Sci 77:59–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-6226(01)00330-X

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Kearney J (2010) Food consumption trends and drivers. Philos Trans R Soc B Biol Sci 365:2793–2807. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Li Q, Yang S, Xu W et al (2015) China experiencing the recent warming hiatus. Geophys Res Lett 42:889–898. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl062773

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Mader T, Davis M, Brown-Brandl T (2006) Environmental factors influencing heat-stress in feedlot cattle. J Anim Sci 84:712–719

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Mauger G, Bauman Y, Nennich T, Salathé E (2015) Impacts of climate change on milk production in the United States. Prof Geogr 67:121–131. https://doi.org/10.1080/00330124.2014.921017

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Mesgari M, Pirmoradi A, Fallahi G (2008) Implementation of overlay function based on fuzzy logic in spatial decision support system. World Appl Sci J 3:60–65

    Google Scholar 

  36. NARCC (2011) Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change (In Chinese). National Assessment Report on Climate Change. Sciences Press, Beijing

    Google Scholar 

  37. Nardone A, Ronchi B, Lacetera N et al (2010) Effects of climate changes on animal production and sustainability of livestock systems. Livest Sci 130:57–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.livsci.2010.02.011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Nokels L, Fahmy T, Crochemore S (2010) Interpretation of the preferences of automotive customers applied to air conditioning supports by combining GPA and PLS regression. In: Esposito Vinzi V, Chin W, Henseler J, Wang H (eds) Handbook of partial least squares: concepts, methods and application. pp 775–789

  39. NRC (1981) A guide to environmental research on animals. National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  40. Polsky L, von Keyserlingk MAG (2017) Effects of heat stress on dairy cattle welfare. J Dairy Sci 100:8645–8657. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2017-12651

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Pragna P, Archana P, Aleena J et al (2016) Heat stress and dairy cow: impact on both milk yield and composition. Int J Dairy Sci 12:1–11

    Google Scholar 

  42. Qiu F, Chastain B, Zhou Y et al (2014) Modeling land suitability/capability using fuzzy evaluation. GeoJournal 79:167–182

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Ranjitkar S, Sujakhu NM, Lu Y et al (2016) Climate modelling for agroforestry species selection in Yunnan Province. China Environ Model Softw 75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.027

  44. Ravagnolo O, Misztal I, Hoogenboom G (2000) Genetic component of heat stress in cattle, development of heat index function. J Dairy Sci 83:2120–2125

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Rhoads M, Rhoads R, VanBaale M et al (2009) Effects of heat stress and plane of nutrition on lactating Holstein cows: I. Production, metabolism, and aspects of circulating somatotropin. J Dairy Sci 92:1986–1997

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. Robertson M, Villet M, Palmer A (2004) A fuzzy classification technique for predicting species’ distributions: applications using invasive alien plants and indigenous insects. Divers Distrib 10:461–474

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Silanikove N, Koluman N (2015) Impact of climate change on the dairy industry in temperate zones: predications on the overall negative impact and on the positive role of dairy goats in adaptation to earth warming. Small Rumin Res 123:27–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.smallrumres.2014.11.005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. St-Pierre N, Cobanov B, Schnitkey G (2003) Economic losses from heat stress by US livestock industries. J Dairy Sci 86:E52–E77. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.S0022-0302(03)74040-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Tenenhaus M, Pages J, Ambroisine L, Guinot C (2005) PLS methodology to study relationships between hedonic judgments and product characteristics. Food Qual Prefer 16:315–325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodqual.2004.05.013

    Article  Google Scholar 

  50. Thornton PK (2010) Livestock production: recent trends, future prospects. Philos Trans R Soc B Biol Sci 365:2853–2867. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0134

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. Tilman D, Clark M (2014) Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health. Nature 515:518

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. Upadhyay R, Singh S, Kumar A et al (2007) Impact of climate change on milk production of Murrah buffaloes. Ital J Anim Sci 6:1329–1332. https://doi.org/10.4081/ijas.2007.s2.1329

    Article  Google Scholar 

  53. Upadhyay R, Kumar A, Gupta S et al (2009) Inventory of methane emission from livestock in India. In: Aggarwal P (ed) Global climate change and Indian agriculture. Case studies from the ICAR Network project. The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), New Delhi, pp 117–122

    Google Scholar 

  54. Wang Y, Ren F, Zhang X (2014) Spatial and temporal variations of regional high temperature events in China. Int J Climatol 34:3054–3065. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3893

    Article  Google Scholar 

  55. West J (2003) Effects of heat-stress on production in dairy cattle. J Dairy Sci 86:2131–2144

    Article  Google Scholar 

  56. West J, Mullinix B, Bernard J (2003) Effects of hot, humid weather on milk temperature, dry matter intake, and milk yield of lactating dairy cows. J Dairy Sci 86:232–242

    Article  Google Scholar 

  57. Wheelock J, Rhoads R, VanBaale M et al (2010) Effects of heat stress on energetic metabolism in lactating Holstein cows. J Dairy Sci 93:644–655

    Article  Google Scholar 

  58. Wildridge AM, Thomson PC, Garcia SC et al (2018) Short communication: the effect of temperature-humidity index on milk yield and milking frequency of dairy cows in pasture-based automatic milking systems. J Dairy Sci 101:4479–4482. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2017-13867

    Article  Google Scholar 

  59. Wiley AS (2007) The globalization of cow’s milk production and consumption: biocultural perspective. Ecol Food Nutr 48:281–312. https://doi.org/10.1080/03670240701407657

    Article  Google Scholar 

  60. Xiao-ge X, Tong-wen W, Jiang-long L et al (2013) How well does BCC _ CSM1 .1 reproduce the 20th century climate change over China? Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 6:21–26. https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2013.11447053

    Article  Google Scholar 

  61. Xiao-Juan W, Zhi-Qiang G, Fu-Min R, Guo-Lin F (2013) Spatial-temporal characteristics of regional extreme low temperature events in China during 1960–2009. Adv Clim Chang Res 3:186–194. https://doi.org/10.3724/sp.j.1248.2012.00186

    Article  Google Scholar 

  62. Xin X, Zhang L, Zhang J et al (2013) Climate change projections over East Asia with BCC _ CSM1 . 1 climate model under RCP scenarios. J Meteorol Soc Japan 91:413–429. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2013-401

    Article  Google Scholar 

  63. Yano M, Shimadzu H, Endo T (2014) Modelling temperature effects on milk production: a study on Holstein cows at a Japanese farm. Springerplus 3:129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  64. Zhou Y, Ren G (2010) Variation of extreme temperature events on Mainland China, 1956–2008. Clim Environ Res 15:405–417

    Google Scholar 

  65. Zimbelman RB, Rhoads RP, Rhoads ML et al (2009) A re-evaluation of the impact of temperature humidity index (THI) and black globe humidity index (BGHI) on milk production in high producing dairy cows. Proc Southwest Nutr Conf:158–169

Download references

Acknowledgments

The research was financially supported by Dairy census program by the Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs, National Natural Science Foundation of China (31872383), National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFD0501600), and Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program (ASTIP-IAS07; CAAS-XTCX2016011-01), Beijing Dairy Industry Innovation Team (BAIC06-2020). We would like to acknowledge Dr. Eike Luedeling for providing comments on the early draft of the manuscript that help us to revise the analysis and sincere thanks to Austin G Smith for English editing.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Sailesh Ranjitkar and Dengpan Bu contributed equally to this work.

Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Animal Nutrition, Institute of Animal Science, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China

    Sailesh Ranjitkar, Dengpan Bu, Ying Ma, Lu Ma & Lianshen Zhao

  2. CAS Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, 650201, Yunnan, China

    Sailesh Ranjitkar & Jianchu Xu

  3. CAAS-ICRAF Joint Lab on Agroforestry and Sustainable Animal Husbandry, Beijing, China

    Sailesh Ranjitkar, Dengpan Bu, Lu Ma, Lianshen Zhao & Jianchu Xu

  4. East and Central Asia Regional Office, World Agroforestry, Kunming, China

    Sailesh Ranjitkar & Jianchu Xu

  5. Centre for Mountain Futures (CMF), Kunming Institute of Botany, Kunming, 650201, Yunnan, China

    Sailesh Ranjitkar & Jianchu Xu

  6. Hunan Co-Innovation Center of Animal Production Safety, Changsha, Hunan, China

    Dengpan Bu

  7. International Livestock Research Institute, ILRI, Nairobi, 30709, Kenya

    Mark Van Wijk

  8. National Animal Husbandry Services, Beijing, China

    Jianmin Shi & Chousheng Liu

Authors
  1. Sailesh Ranjitkar
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Dengpan Bu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Mark Van Wijk
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Ying Ma
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Lu Ma
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Lianshen Zhao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Jianmin Shi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Chousheng Liu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. Jianchu Xu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jianchu Xu.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Electronic supplementary material

ESM 1

(DOC 2395 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Ranjitkar, S., Bu, D., Van Wijk, M. et al. Will heat stress take its toll on milk production in China?. Climatic Change 161, 637–652 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02688-4

Download citation

Keywords

  • Cow
  • Milk production
  • Climate change
  • Temperature–humidity index
  • Heat stress