Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

The link between smallholders’ perception of climatic changes and adaptation in Tanzania

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Farmers’ subjective perceptions of climatic changes are not always in line with historic climate observations. Adaptation decisions based on these perceptions thus remain controversial. The paper therefore relates to the following questions: First, what are farmers’ perceptions of climatic changes? Second, do they correlate with observations from climatic data? Third, how do farmers respond and what are the factors determining adaptation? The analysis is based on household survey data from a sample of 900 farmers in rural Tanzania and secondary data from local meteorological stations. We find that farmers’ perception of a rising average temperature over time is generally confirmed. This is not the case for rainfall: farmers perceive that annual rainfall amount decreased, while climate data rather shows no change in the amount, but indicates a change in the rainfall pattern. However, we do find only a weak link between farmers’ perception and their behavior. Although farmers perceive climatic changes to happen and to affect them, some choose to not adapt at all and many only react in an evasive way, i.e., by coping measures that will not protect their household from future damage. Only a small share of farmers chose investment-intensive long-term strategies such as irrigation systems. Results confirm that a limited adaptive capacity plays a role, but also reveal the intention to adapt as a relevant factor. This is represented by the farmers’ loss experience due to climatic shocks and personality traits. This approach gives a more complete picture of the farmers’ adaptation decision.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. The sample in the follow-up survey was reduced to 820 households mainly due to migration.

  2. The use of a wealth proxy is indicated, as the generation of asset value through surveys of farm households in developing countries is susceptible to measurement errors, which may lead to biased results (Morris et al. 2000).

  3. Figures 3b and 4b show distributions of precipitation amounts per day for the two historical periods. If the blue line had been in line with the dark gray–dashed line, low precipitation events would have been as likely as heavy precipitation. As the blue lines follow a concave curve, lower precipitation amounts (0–40 mm per day) are more often than daily precipitation amounts above 40 mm. For Dodoma (Fig. 3b), the curve for 1991–2010 (light blue) indicates that heavy precipitation events have grown more frequent relative to 1970–1990 (dark blue curve).

References

  • AFDB (African Development Bank) 2015. Transitioning from INDCs to NDCs in Africa. CIF Knowledge Series, AFDB, November 2015. https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/-Documents/Publications/AfDB-CIF-Transitioning_fromINDCs_to_NDC-report-November2016.pdf

  • Below TB, Mutabazi KD, Kirschke D, Franke C, Sieber S, Siebert R, Tscherning K (2012) Can farmers’ adaptation to climate change be explained by socio-economic household-level variables? Glob Environ Chang 22:223–235. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.11.012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cameron AC, Trivedi PK (2009) Microeconometrics using Stata, vol 2. Stata Press, College Station

    Google Scholar 

  • D’Souza GE, Cyphers D, Phipps TT (1993) Factors affecting the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 22(2):159–165

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Daily News (2018). Legislators okay Paris climate agreement ratification. Daily News, The National Newspaper on 4th of April 2018, available online: http://dailynews.co.tz/index.php/home-news/56998-legislators-okay-paris-climate-agreement-ratification. Accessed on 09.05.2018

  • Deressa TT, Hassan RM, Ringler C, Alemu T, Yesuf M (2009) Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Glob Environ Chang, Traditional Peoples and Climate Change 19:248–255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.01.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Di Falco S, Veronesi M, Yesuf M (2011) Does Adaptation to Climate Change Provide Food Security? A Micro-Perspective from Ethiopia. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 93(3):829–846

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elum ZA, Modise DM, Marr A (2017) Farmer’s perception of climate change and responsive strategies in three selected provinces of South Africa. Clim Risk Manag 16:246–257. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.11.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gocic M, Trajkovic S (2013) Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Glob Planet Chang 100:172–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.10.014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Graef F, Sieber S, Mutabazi K, Asch F, Biesalski H, Bitegeko J, Bokelmann WM, Bruentrup W (2014) Framework for participatory food security research in rural food value chains. Global Food Security 3(3):8–15

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grothmann T, Patt A (2005) Adaptive capacity and human cognition: the process of individual adaptation to climate change. Glob Environ Chang 15:199–2013

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hooker K, Frazier LD, Monahan DJ (1994) Personality and coping among caregivers of spouses with dementia. Gerontologist 34:386–392. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/34.3.386

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.

  • IPIP (International Personality Item Pool) (2019) A scientific collaboratory for the development of advanced measures of personality traits and other individual differences (http://ipip.ori.org/). Internet Web Site, Accessed on 15.06.2019

  • Kangalawe RYM, Mung’ong’o CG, Mwakaje AG, Kalumanga E, Yanda PZ (2017) Climate change and variability impacts on agricultural production and livelihood systems in Western Tanzania. Clim Dev 9:202–216. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2016.1146119

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods, 4th edn. Charles Griffin, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Lema MA, Majule AE (2009) Impacts of climate change, variability and adaptation strategies on agriculture in semi-arid areas of Tanzania: the case of Manyoni District in Singida Region, Tanzania. Afr J Environ Sci Technol 3:206–218

    Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB (1945) Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:163–171

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB, Whitney DR (1947) On a test of whether one of two random variables is stochastically larger than the other. Ann Math Stat 18:50–60

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCrae RR, Costa PT (1987) Validation of the five-factor model of personality across instruments and observers. J Pers Soc Psychol 52:81–90

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meze-Hausken E (2004) Contrasting climate variability and meteorological drought with perceived drought and climate change in northern Ethiopia. Clim Res 27:19–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mnenwa R, Maliti E (2010) A comparative analysis of poverty incidence in farming systems of Tanzania. Special Paper 10/4, Research on Poverty Alleviation (REPOA), Dar es Salaam. http://www.repoa.or.tz/documents_storage/publications/10-4%20web.pdf. Accessed 04.05.2017

  • Morris SS, Carletto C, Hoddinott J, Christiaensen LJM (2000) Validity of rapid estimates of household wealth and income for health surveys in rural Africa. J Epidemiol Community Health 54:381–387. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.54.5.381

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Osbahr H, Dorward P, Stern R, Cooper S (2011) Supporting agricultural innovation in Uganda to respond to climate risk: linking climate change and variability with farmer perceptions. Exp Agric 47:293–316. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0014479710000785

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paavola J (2008) Livelihoods, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Morogoro, Tanzania. Environ Sci Pol 11:642–654. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2008.06.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rao KPC, Ndegwa WG, Kizito K, Oyoo A (2011) Climate variability and change: farmer perceptions and understanding of intra-seasonal variability in rainfall and associated risk in semi-arid Kenya. Exp Agric 47:267–291

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ray DK, Gerber JS, MacDonald GK, West PC (2015) Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability. Nat Commun 6. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6989

  • Roberts BW, Jackson JJ, Fayard JV, Edmonds G, Meints J (2009) Conscientiousness. In: Hoyle MLR (ed) Handbook of individual differences in social behavior, 369–381. Guilford Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Rogers RW (1995) Diffusion of innovations, 4th edn. The Free Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Slegers MFW (2008) “If only it would rain”: farmers’ perceptions of rainfall and drought in semi-arid central Tanzania. J Arid Environ 72:2106–2123

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sutcliffe C, Dougill AJ, Quinn CH (2016) Evidence and perceptions of rainfall change in Malawi: do maize cultivar choices enhance climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa? Reg Environ Chang 16:1215–1224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tadross M, Suarez P, Lotsch A, Hachigonta S, Mdoka M, Unganai L, Lucio F, Kamdonyo D, Muchinda M (2009) Growing-season rainfall and scenarios of future change in southeast Africa: implications for cultivating maize. Clim Res 40:147–161. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00821

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas DSG, Twyman C, Osbahr H, Hewitson B (2007) Adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa. Clim Chang 83:301–322

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Touch V, Martin RJ, Scott JF, Cowie A, Liu DL (2016) Climate change adaptation options in rainfed upland cropping systems in the wet tropics: a case study of smallholder farms in North-West Cambodia. J Environ Manag 182:238–246

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE (2011) Changes in precipitation with climate change. Clim Res 47:123–138. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00953

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) (2015) Intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) of the United Republic of Tanzania. Published 29(09):2015 http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.a

    Google Scholar 

  • URT (United Republic of Tanzania) (2007) National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA). Vice President’s Office, Division of Environment, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. http://unfccc.int/ resource/docs/napa/tza01.pdf. Accessed 15.05.2018

  • URT (United Republic of Tanzania) (2012) Guidelines for integrating climate change adaptation into national sectoral polices, plans and programmes. Office of the Vice President. September 2012

  • URT (United Republic of Tanzania) (2015) Government Portal. http://www.tanzania.go.tz/home/pages/225. Accessed 15.05.2018

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Environmental Economics and World Trade, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Königsworther Platz 1, 30167, Hannover, Germany

    Kathleen Brüssow & Ulrike Grote

  2. Leibniz Association, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 60 12 03, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany

    Christoph Gornott

  3. Environmental and Development Economics, Technical University Munich, Campus Straubing for Biotechnology and Sustainability, Am Essigberg 3, 94315, Straubing, Germany

    Anja Faße

Authors
  1. Kathleen Brüssow
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Christoph Gornott
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Anja Faße
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Ulrike Grote
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kathleen Brüssow.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Electronic supplementary material

ESM 1

(DOCX 32 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Brüssow, K., Gornott, C., Faße, A. et al. The link between smallholders’ perception of climatic changes and adaptation in Tanzania. Climatic Change 157, 545–563 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02581-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02581-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation