Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

The impact of extreme weather events on livestock populations: the case of the 2011 drought in Mexico

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Extreme weather events represent a large risk to food production systems. In this study, we evaluated the impacts of the 2011–2012 drought in Mexico, the worst in the last 70 years, on free-ranged livestock populations to link extreme weather events and production. We also considered the potential prevalence of recurring droughts under two contrasting future climate scenarios to examine what could happen over this century. Our results showed that cattle and goat stocks decreased about 3% in response to the drought countrywide. Regionally, the changes in cattle and goat populations generally mimicked the precipitation anomaly, with the strongest reductions across the driest areas in central and northern Mexico. Our work showed that the biophysical and management components of livestock production interact depending on the regions and the type of livestock, leading to a mosaic of spatial responses. It seems that the management of large herds limits the economic viability of drought crisis management options such as the importation of fodder and water, or by moving the animals to other pastures. Sheep herds were much less affected since more than 50% of the total sheep stock is raised in wetter states, which showed a relatively small (~ − 10%) precipitation anomaly during the drought. Under the severe climate change scenario, a greater frequency of extremely dry years (once every 3 years) would have negative impacts on livestock production regionally. Climate change together with already existing trends in overgrazing and soil erosion could further increase the sensitivity of livestock production across the country.

Graphical abstract

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Avendaño-Reyes L, Hernández-Rivera JA, Álvarez-Valenzuela FD, Macías-Cruz U, Díaz-Molina R, Correa-Calderón A, Robinson PH, Fadel JG (2012) Physiological and productive responses of multiparous lactating Holstein cows exposed to short-term cooling during severe summer conditions in an arid region of Mexico. Int J Biometeorol 56:993–999. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0510-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barbier B, Yacouba H, Karambiri H, Zoromé M, Somé B (2009) Human vulnerability to climate variability in the Sahel: farmers’ adaptation strategies in northern Burkina Faso. Environ Manag 43:790–803. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-008-9237-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown-Brandl TM, Eigenberg RA, Hahn GL, Nienaber JA, Mader TL, Spiers DE, Parkhurst AM (2005) Analyses of thermoregulatory responses of feeder cattle exposed to simulated heat waves. Int J Biometeorol 49:285–296. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-004-0250-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buechler S (2009) Gender, water, and climate change in Sonora, Mexico: implications for policies and programmes on agricultural income-generation. Gend Dev 17:51–66. https://doi.org/10.1080/13552070802696912

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buller RE, X., E.H, Gonzalez MH (1960) Grassland and livestock regions of Mexico. J Range Manag 13:1–6. https://doi.org/10.2307/3894888

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Campbell DJ (1984) Response to drought among farmers and herders in southern Kajiado District, Kenya. Hum Ecol 12:35–64. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01531283

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coppock D, Ellis J, Swift D (1986) Seasonal nutritional characteristics of livestock diets in a nomadic pastoral ecosystem. J Appl Ecol 23:585–596

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dieguez Cameroni F, Fort H (2017) Towards scientifically based management of extensive livestock farming in terms of ecological predator-prey modeling. Agric Syst 153:127–137

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Easterling W, Apps M (2005) Assessing the consequences of climate change for food and forest resources: a view from the IPCC. In: Increasing climate variability and change. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 165–189. https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-4166-7_8

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Easterling WE (2007) Climate change and the adequacy of food and timber in the 21st century. Proc Natl Acad Sci 104:19679–19679. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0710388104

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ellis JE, Swift DM (1988) Stability of African pastoral ecosystems: alternate paradigms and implications for development. J Range Manag 41:450–459

  • Field CB, Barros VR, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Abdrabo, Adger WN, Anokhin YA, Anisimov OA, Arent DJ, Barnett J, Burkett VR, Cai R, Chatterjee M, Cohen SJ, Cramer, Dasgupta, P, Davidson DJ, Denton F, Doll P, Dow K, Hijioka Y, Hoegh-Guldberg O (2014) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part a: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press

  • Guerrero Cruz MM (2010) La caprinocultura en México, una estrategia de desarrollo. Revista Universitaria Digital de Ciencias Sociales 1, http://www.cuautitlan.unam.mx/rudics/ejemplares/0101/art06.html. Accessed 1 March 2018

  • Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Lister DH (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations—the CRU TS3.10 dataset. Int J Climatol 34:623–642. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heisler-White JL, Blair JM, Kelly EF, Harmoney K, Knapp AK (2009) Contingent productivity responses to more extreme rainfall regimes across a grassland biome. Glob Change Biol 15:2894–2904. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01961.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huber-Sannwald E, Maestre FT, Herrick JE, Reynolds JF (2006) Ecohydrological feedbacks and linkages associated with land degradation: a case study from Mexico. Hydrol Process 20:3395–3411. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6337

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • INEGI (2015) Producción de ganado bovino. Encuesta Nacional Agropecuaria 2014. http://www.inegi.org.mx/est/contenidos/proyectos/encuestas/agropecuarias/ena/ena2014/doc/minimonografia/prodbovena14.pdf. Accessed 1 March 2018

  • Katz RW, Brown BG (1992) Extreme events in a changing climate: variability is more important than averages. Clim Chang 21:289–302. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139728

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li Y, Ji J (2004) Assessment of the productivity and livestock carrying capacity of Inner Mongolia grassland by regional scale modeling. J Nat Resour 19:610–616

    Google Scholar 

  • Lobell DB, Bänziger M, Magorokosho C, Vivek B (2011) Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials. Nat Clim Chang 1:42–45. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1043

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maass M, Burgos A (2011) Water dynamics at the ecosystem level in seasonally dry tropical forests, in: Dirzo, R., Young, H.S., Mooney, H.A., Ceballos, G. (Eds.), Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests. Island Press/Center for Resource Economics, pp. 141–156. https://doi.org/10.5822/978-1-61091-021-7_9

  • Manzano MG, Návar J (2000) Processes of desertification by goats overgrazing in the Tamaulipan thornscrub (matorral) in north-eastern Mexico. J Arid Environ 44:1–17. https://doi.org/10.1006/jare.1999.0577

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKeon GM, Stone GS, Syktus JI, Carter JO, Flood NR, Ahrens DG, Bruget DN, Chilcott CR, Cobon DH, Cowley RA, Crimp SJ, Fraser GW, Howden SM, Johnston PW, Ryan JG, Stokes CJ, Day KA (2009) Climate change impacts on northern Australian rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues. Rangel J 31:1–29. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ08068

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mellado M, Romero P, García JE, Véliz FG, Arévalo JR (2010) The effects of ambient temperature and humidity on pregnancy rate in Beefmaster cows in a subtropical environment of Mexico. Livest Sci 131:149–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.livsci.2010.03.009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murray-Tortarolo G, Friedlingstein P, Sitch S, Jaramillo VJ, Murguía-Flores F, Anav A, Liu Y, Arneth A, Arvanitis A, Harper A, Jain A, Kato E, Koven C, Poulter B, Stocker BD, Wiltshire A, Zaehle S, Zeng N (2016) The carbon cycle in Mexico: past, present and future of C stocks and fluxes. Biogeosciences 13:223–238. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murray-Tortarolo GN, Jaramillo VJ, Larsen J (2018) Food security and climate change: the case of rainfed maize production in Mexico. Agric For Meteorol 253–254:124–131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.02.011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Partida de la Peña JA, Braña Varela D, Jiménez Saveriano H, Ríos Rincón FG & Buendía Rodríguez G (2013) Producción de carne ovina. Libro Técnico No.5, Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias, Querétaro, México ISBN: 978-607-37-0036-8

  • Orlowsky B, Seneviratne SI (2012) Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension. Clim Chang 110:669–696. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0122-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Porter JR, Xie L, Challinor AJ, Cochrane K, Howden SM, Iqbal MM, Lobell DB, Travasso MI, Netra Chhetri NC, Garrett K, Ingram J, Lipper L, McCarthy N, McGrath J, Smith D, Thornton P, Watson J, Ziska L (2014) Food security and food production systems. Cambridge University Press

  • Romero-Lankao P, et al. (2014) North America. In: Barros, V.R., Field, C.B., Dokken, D.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Mach, K.J., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L. and Estrada, R.C.G.Y.O., Girma, B., Kissel, E.S., Levy, A.N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P.R. and White, L.L., Eds., Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: regional aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

  • Rötter R, van de Geijn S (1999) Clim Chang 43:651. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005541132734

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rubio Lozano M. de la S, Braña Varela D, Méndez Medina RD & Delgado Suárez E (2013) Sistemas de producción y calidad de carne bovina. Folleto Técnico 28, Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias, Querétaro, México. ISBN: 978–607–37-0095-5

  • Sautier M, Martin-Clouaire R, Faivre R et al (2013) Clim Chang 120:341. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0808-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saville DG (1981) Management and feeding of grazing animals during drought. In: Morley FHW (ed) Grazing Animals. Elsevier Scientific Publishing Co., Amsterdam, pp 335–348

    Google Scholar 

  • Seager R, Goddard L, Nakamura J, Henderson N, Lee DE (2013) Dynamical causes of the 2010/11 Texas–northern Mexico drought. J Hydrometeorol 15:39–68. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-024.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • SEMARNAT (2017) Secretaria de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales. http://apps1.semarnat.gob.mx/dgeia/informe_resumen/03_suelos/cap3.html. Accessed 1 March 2018

  • SIAP (2017) Servicio de Informacion Agroalimentaria y Pesquera. https://www.gob.mx/siap. Accessed 13 Nov 2018

  • Spain JN, Spiers DE (1996) Effects of supplemental shade on thermoregulatory response of calves to heat challenge in a hutch environment. J Dairy Sci 79:639–646. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.S0022-0302(96)76409-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2011) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vitali A, Felici A, Esposito S, Bernabucci U, Bertocchi L, Maresca C, Nardone A, Lacetera N (2015) The effect of heat waves on dairy cow mortality. J Dairy Sci 98:4572–4579. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2015-9331

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang J, Zhang L, Liu W, Qi Y, Wo X (2014) Livestock-carrying capacity and overgrazing status of alpine grassland in the Three-River Headwaters region, China. J Geogr Sci 24:303–312. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-014-1089-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank the Servicio de Información Agroalimentaria y Pesquera, SAGARPA, México, for data on national and state-level livestock populations, as well as the Climate Research Centre, UK, and the CMIP5 modeling groups for the climatic data. GNMT thanks the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México for postdoctoral funding, during which part of this research was conducted.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Cátedra CONACyT comisionado al Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, Mexico

    Guillermo N. Murray-Tortarolo

  2. Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, Mexico

    Guillermo N. Murray-Tortarolo & Víctor J. Jaramillo

Authors
  1. Guillermo N. Murray-Tortarolo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Víctor J. Jaramillo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Guillermo N. Murray-Tortarolo.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Highlights

• The impacts of the 2011 drought on Mexican free-range livestock were studied.

• The biophysical and management components interact to create a mosaic of risk.

• Livestock in arid regions with large herds suffered the sharpest population decline.

• It took 2 years for cattle populations to recover after the extreme event.

• To date, goat populations have not reached the previous stock size.

• Sheep were least affected by the drought.

Electronic supplementary material

ESM 1

(DOCX 1304 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Murray-Tortarolo, G.N., Jaramillo, V.J. The impact of extreme weather events on livestock populations: the case of the 2011 drought in Mexico. Climatic Change 153, 79–89 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02373-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02373-1

Search

Navigation