Adger WN, Arnell NW, Tompkins EL (2005) Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Glob Environ Chang 15(2):77–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.005
Anderson J, Chung F, Anderson M, Brekke L, Easton D, Ejeta M, Peterson R, Snyder R (2008) Progress on incorporating climate change into management of California’s water resources. Clim Chang 87(1 SUPPL). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9353-1.
Barnett TP, Pierce DW, Hidalgo HG, Bonfils C, Santer BD, Das T, Bala G, Wood AW, Nozawa T, Mirin A a, Cayan DR, Dettinger MD (2008) Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the Western United States. Science 319:1080–1083. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1152538
Borgomeo E, Farmer CL, Hall JW (2015) Numerical rivers: a synthetic streamflow generator for water resrouces vulnerability assessments. Water Resour Res 51:5382–5405. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016827.Received
Brekke L, Wood A, Pruitt T (2014) Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 hydrology climate projections: release of hydrology projections, comparison with preceding information, and summary of user needs, US Bureau of Reclamation. Available at: https://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip_projections/techmemo/BCSD5HydrologyMemo.pdf
Brown C, Ghile Y, Laverty M, Li K (2012) Decision scaling: linking bottom-up vulnerability analysis with climate projections in the water sector. Water Resour Res 48(9):1–12. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011212
Bryant BP, Lempert RJ (2010) Thinking inside the box: a participatory, computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 77(1):34–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2009.08.002
Buurman J, Babovic V (2016) Adaptation pathways and real options analysis: an approach to deep uncertainty in climate change adaptation policies. Policy Soc 35(2):137–150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polsoc.2016.05.002
Cayan DR, Kammerdiener SA, Dettinger MD, Caprio JM, Peterson DH (2001) Changes in the onset of spring in the Western United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 82(3):399–416
Dessai S, Hulme M (2004) Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities? Clim Pol 4(2):107–128. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2004.9685515
DiFrancesco KN, Tullos DD (2014) Flexibility in water resources management: review of concepts and development of assessment measures for flood management systems. J Am Water Resour Assoc 50(6):1527–1539. https://doi.org/10.1111/jawr.12214
Donat MG et al (2013) Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: the HadEX2 dataset. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(5):2098–2118. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50150
Dottori F, Szewczyk W, Ciscar J-C, Zhao F, Alfieri L, Hirabayashi Y, Bianchi A, Mongelli I, Frieler K, Betts R, Feyen L (2018) Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming. Nat Clim Chang. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0257-z.
Fletcher SM, Miotti M, Swaminathan J, Klemun MM, Strzepek K, Siddiqi A (2017) Water supply infrastructure planning: decision-making framework to classify multiple uncertainties and evaluate flexible design. J Water Resour Plan Manag 143(10):4017061. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000823.
Frigg R, Smith LA, Stainforth DA (2013) The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models : The Case of UKCP09, 80(December):886–897
Giuliani M, Castelletti A (2016) Is robustness really robust? How different definitions of robustness impact decision-making under climate change. Clim Chang 135(3–4):409–424. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1586-9.
Haasnoot M, Kwakkel JH, Walker WE, ter Maat J (2013) Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world. Glob Environ Chang 23(2):485–498. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.006
Hallegatte S (2009) Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change. Glob Environ Chang 19(2):240–247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.12.003
Hallegatte S, Shah A, Lempert R, Brown C, Gill S (2012) Investment decision making under deep uncertainty: application to climate change, Policy Research Working Paper, (6193), p 41. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6193
Herman JD, Giuliani M (2018) Policy tree optimization for threshold-based water resources management over multiple timescales. Environ Model Softw 99:39–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.09.016
Herman JD, Reed PM, Zeff HB, Characklis GW (2015) How should robustness be defined for water systems planning under change? J Water Resour Plan Manag 141(10):4015012. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000509.
Herman JD, Zeff HB, Lamontagne JR, Reed PM, Characklis GW (2016) Synthetic drought scenario generation to support bottom-up water supply vulnerability assessments. J Water Resour Plan Manag 142(11):4016050. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000701.
Hirabayashi Y, Mahendran R, Koirala S, Konoshima L, Yamazaki D, Watanabe S, Kim H, Kanae S (2013) Global flood risk under climate change. Nat Clim Chang 3(9):816–821. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1911.
Hui R, Herman J, Lund J, Madani K (2018) Adaptive water infrastructure planning for nonstationary hydrology. Adv Water Resour 118(May):83–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2018.05.009
Jeuland M, Whittington D (2014) Water resources planning under climate change: assessing the robustness of real options for the Blue Nile. Water Resour Res:2086–2107. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR013705.Received.
Katz RW (2002) Techniques for estimating uncertainty in climate change scenarios and impact studies. Clim Res 20:167–185
Knowles N, Dettinger MD, Cayan DR (2006) Trends in snowfall versus rainfall in the Western United States. J Clim 19(18):4545–4559. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3850.1
Kundzewicz ZW, Krysanova V, Benestad RE, Hov O, Piniewski M, Otto IM (2018) Uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources. Environ Sci Policy 79:1–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.10.008
Kwadijk JCJ, Haasnoot M, Mulder JPM, Hoogvliet MMC, Jeuken ABM, van der Krogt RAA, van Oostrom NGC, Schelfhout HA, van Velzen EH, van Waveren H, de Wit MJM (2010) Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang 1(5):729–740. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.64
Kwakkel JH, Pruyt E (2013) Exploratory modeling and analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 80(3):419–431. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.005
Kwakkel JH, Haasnoot M, Walker WE (2015) Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world. Clim Chang 132(3):373–386. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1210-4
Lempert RJ (2002) A new decision sciences for complex systems. Proc Natl Acad Sci 99(Supplement 3):7309–7313. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.082081699
Lempert RJ, Collins MT (2007) Managing the risk of uncertain threshold responses: comparison of robust, optimum, and precautionary approaches. Risk Anal 27(4):1009–1026. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00940.x
Leung LR, Qian Y, Bian X, Washington WM, Han J, Roads JO (2004) Mid-century ensemble regional climate change scenarios for the western United States. Clim Chang 62(1–3):75–113. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013692.50640.55.
Liang X, Lettenmaier DP, Wood EF, Burges SJ (1994) A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models. J Geophys Res Atmos 99(D7):14415–14428. https://doi.org/10.1029/94JD00483
Luckman BH (1998) Landscape and climate change in the Central Canadian Rockies during the 20th century. Can Geogr 42(4):319–336. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-0064.1998.tb01349.x
Mote PW, Hamlet AF, Clark MP, Lettenmaier DP (2005) Declining mountain snowpack in Western North America, (January), pp. 39–49. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-86-1-39
Pederson GT, Gray ST, Woodhouse CA, Betancourt JL, Fagre DB, Littell JS, Watson E, Luckman BH, Graumlich LJ (2011) The unusual nature of recent snowpack declines in the North American Cordillera 543(July): 332–336
Ranger N, Reeder T, Lowe J (2013) Addressing “deep” uncertainty over long-term climate in major infrastructure projects: four innovations of the Thames estuary 2100 project. EURO J Decis Process 1(3–4):233–262. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40070-013-0014-5
Ray PA, Bonzanigo L, Wi S, Yang YCE, Karki P, García LE, Rodriguez DJ, Brown CM (2018) Multidimensional stress test for hydropower investments facing climate, geophysical and financial uncertainty. Glob Environ Chang 48(January 2017):168–181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.013
Seaber PR, Kapinos FP, Knapp GL (1987) Hydrologic unit maps: US Geological Survey Water Supply Paper 2294.
Stainforth DA, Allen MR, Tredger ER, Smith LA (2007) Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Philos Trans R Soc A Math Phys Eng Sci 365(1857):2145–2161. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2074
Steinschneider S, McCrary R, Mearns LO, Brown C (2015) The effects of climate model similarity on probabilistic climate projections and the implications for local, risk-based adaptation planning. Geophys Res Lett 42(12):5014–5022. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064529
Stewart IT, Cayan DR, Dettinger MD (2005) Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across Western North America. J Clim 18(8):1136–1155. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3321.1
Taner MÜ, Ray P, Brown C (2017) Robustness-based evaluation of hydropower infrastructure design under climate change. Climat Risk Manag 18(July):34–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2017.08.002
US Global Change Research Program (2009) Global climate change impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press
Walker WE, Haasnoot M, Kwakkel JH (2013) Adapt or perish: a review of planning approaches for adaptation under deep uncertainty. Sustainability (Switzerland) 5(3):955–979. https://doi.org/10.3390/su5030955
Wilby RL, Dessai S (2010) Robust adaptation to climate change. Weather 65(7):180–185. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.504.
Zeff HB, Kasprzyk JR, Herman JD, Reed PM, Characklis GW (2014) Navigating financial and supply reliability tradeoffs in regional drought management portfolios. Water Resour Res:4906–4923. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR015126.Received.
Zeff HB, Herman JD, Reed PM, Characklis GW (2016) Cooperative drought adaptation: integrating infrastructure development, conservation, and water transfers into adaptive policy pathways. Water Resour Res 52:7327–7346. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR018771