Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Vulnerability of grazing and confined livestock in the Northern Great Plains to projected mid- and late-twenty-first century climate

Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The Northern Great Plains (NGP) region of the USA—which comprises Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska—is a largely rural area that provides numerous ecosystem services, including livestock products, cultural services, and conservation of biological diversity. The region contains 25% of the Nation’s beef cattle and approximately one-third of the confined beef cattle, as well as the largest remaining native prairie in the US—the Northern Mixedgrass Prairie. With rising atmospheric CO2, the NGP is projected to experience warmer and longer growing seasons, greater climatic variability, and more extreme events (e.g., increased occurrence of large precipitation events). These climatic changes may affect livestock production both directly via physiological impacts on animals and indirectly via modifications to forage, invasion of undesirable plants, and increased exposure to parasites. This raises concerns about the vulnerability of grazing livestock operations and confined livestock operations to projected changes in mid- (2050) and late- (2085) twenty-first century climate. Our objectives are to (1) describe the NGP’s exposure to temperature and precipitation trends, inter-annual variability, and extreme events; (2) evaluate the sensitivity of beef cattle production to direct and indirect effects imposed by these projected climatic changes; and (3) provide a typology of adaptation strategies to minimize adverse consequences of projected changes and maximize beneficial consequences. Agricultural managers have developed considerable adaptive capacity to contend with environmental and economic variability. However, projected climatic changes, especially the increased frequency and magnitude of weather extremes, will require even greater adaptive capacity to maintain viable production systems. Consequently, regional vulnerability to projected climatic changes will be determined not only by ecological responses but also by the adaptive capacity of individual managers. Adaptive capacity in the NGP will differ from other regions, in part because projections suggest some opportunities for increased livestock production. Adaptations in both grazing and confined beef cattle systems will require enhanced decision-making skills capable of integrating biophysical, social, and economic considerations. Social learning networks that support integration of experimental and experiential knowledge—such as lessons learned from early adopters and involvement with science-based organizations—can help enhance decision-making and climate adaptation planning. Many adaptations have already been implemented by a subset of producers in this region, providing opportunities for assessment, further development, and greater adoption. Context-specific decision-making can also be enhanced through science-management partnerships, which aim to build adaptive capacity that recognizes multiple production and conservation/environmental goals.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adger WN (2006) Vulnerability. Glob Environ Chang 15:268–281

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Badeck FW, Bondeau A, Bottcher K, Doktor D, Lucht W, Schaber J, Sitch S (2004) Responses of spring phenology to climate change. New Phytol 162:295–309

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bailey DW, Lunt S, Lipka A, Thomas MG, Medrano JF, Cánovas A, Rincon G, Stephenson MB, Jensen D (2015) Genetic influences on cattle grazing distribution: association of genetic markers with terrain use in cattle. Rangel Ecolog Manag 68:142–149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bear DA, Russell JR, Tufekcioglu M, Isenhart TM, Morrical DG, Kovar JL (2012) Stocking rate and riparian vegetation effects on physical characteristics of riparian zones of Midwestern pastures. Rangel Ecol Manag 65(2):119–128

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blumenthal DM, Resco V, Morgan JA, Williams DG, LeCain DR, Hardy EM, Pendall E, Bladyka E (2013) Invasive forb benefits from water savings by native plants and carbon fertilization under elevated CO2 and warming. New Phytol. doi:10.1111/nph.12459

  • Blumenthal DM, Kray JA, Ortmans W, Ziska LH, Pendall E (2016) Cheatgrass is favored by warming but not CO2 enrichment in a semi-arid grassland. Glob Chang Biol 22:3026–3038

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bradley BA, Oppenheimber M, Wilcove DS (2009) Climate change and plant invasions: restoration opportunities ahead? Glob Chang Biol 15:1511–1521

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Briske DD, Zhao M, Han G, Xiu C, Kemp DR (2015) Strategies to alleviate poverty and grassland degradation in Inner Mongolia: intensification vs production efficiency of livestock systems. J Environ Manag 152:177–182

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown-Brandl TM, Eigenberg A, Nienaber JA (2010) Water spray cooling during handling of feedlot cattle. Intl J Biometeor 54:609–616

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown-Brandl TM, Eigenberg RA, Nienaber JA (2013) Benefits of providing shade to feedlot cattle of different breeds. Trans Agric Biol Eng 56:1563–1570

    Google Scholar 

  • Busby D, Loy D (1996) Heat stress in feedlot cattle: producer survey results. Pages 108–110 in Iowa State University beef research report AS-632. Iowa State University, Ames, IA

  • Chambers PA, Culp JM, Roberts ES, Bowerman M (2012) Development of environmental thresholds for streams in agricultural watersheds. J Environ Qual 41:1–6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dantas-Torres F (2015) Climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases: the butterfly effect. Intl J Parasitolog: Parasit Wildl 4(3):452–461

    Google Scholar 

  • Derner JD, Augustine DJ (2016) Adaptive management for drought on rangelands. Rangel 38:211–215

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Derner JD, Lauenroth WK, Stapp P, Augustine DJ (2009) Livestock as ecosystem engineers for grassland bird habitat in the western Great Plains of North America. Rangel Ecolog Manag 62:111–118

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Derner JD, Augustine DJ, Ascough JC II, Ahuja LR (2012) Opportunities for increasing utility of models for rangeland management. Rangel Ecolog Manag 65:623–631

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Didier EA, Brunson MW (2004) Adoption of range management innovations by Utah ranchers. Range Ecol Manag 57:330–336

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dumont B, Andueza D, Niderkorn V, Lüscher A, Porqueddu C, Picon-Cochard C (2015) A meta-analysis of climate change effects on forage quality in grasslands: specificities of mountain and Mediterranean areas. Grass Forage Sci 70:239–254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Evans SG, Pelster AJ, Leininger WC, Trlica MJ (2004) Diet selection of cattle grazing a montane riparian community. J Range Manag 57:539–545

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frost R, Walker J, Madsen C, Holes R, Lehfeldt J, Cunningham J, Voth K, Welling B, Davis TZ, Bradford D, Malot J, Sullivan J (2012) Targeted grazing: applying the research to the land. Rangel 34:2–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gaughan JB, Mader TL, Holt SM, Sullivan ML, Hahn GL (2010) Assessing the heat tolerance of 17 beef cattle genotypes. Intl J Biometeor 54:617–627

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goulson D, Derwent LC, Hanley ME, Dunn DW, Abolins SR (2005) Predicting calyptrate fly populations from the weather, and probable consequences of climate change. J. Appl Ecol 42:795–804

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gregory SV, Swanson FJ, McKee WA, Cummins KW (1991) An ecosystem perspective of riparian zones. BioSci 41:540–551

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grudzinski BP, Daniels MD, Anibas K, Spencer D (2016) Bison and cattle grazing management, bare ground coverage, and links to suspended sediment concentrations in grassland streams. J Amer Water Res Assoc 52(1):16–30

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hallegatte S (2009) Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change. Glob Environ Chang 19(2):240–247. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.12.003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton TW, Ritten JP, Bastian CT, Derner JD, Tanaka JA (2016) Economic impacts of increasing seasonal precipitation variation on southeast Wyoming cow-calf enterprises. Rangel Ecol Manag 69(6):465–473

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hammond AC, Chase CC, Bowers EJ, Olson TA, Randel RD (1998) Heat tolerance in Tuli-, Senepol-, and Brahman-sired F1 Angus heifers in Florida. J Ani Sci 76:1568–1577

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heisler-White JL, Blair JM, Kelly EF, Harmoney K, Knapp AK (2009) Contingent productivity responses to more extreme rainfall regimes across a grassland biome. Glob Chang Biol 15:2894–2904

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoberg EP, Polley L, Jenkins EJ, Kutz SJ (2008) Pathogens of domestic and free-ranging ungulates: global climate change in temperate to boreal latitudes across North America. Rev Sci Tech Off Int Epiz 27(2):511–528

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Howden SM, Soussana JF, Tubeillo FN, Chhetri N, Dunlop M, Meinke H (2007) Adapting agriculture to climate change. PNAS 104:19691–19696

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Izaurralde RC, Thomson AM, Morgan JA, Fay PA, Polley HW, Hatfield JL (2011) Climate impacts on agriculture: implications for forage and rangeland production. Agron J 103:371–380

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joyce LA, Briske DD, Brown JR, Polley HW, McCarl BA, Bailey DW (2013) Climate change and North American rangelands: assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Rangel Ecol Manag 66(5):512–528. doi:10.2111/REM-D-12-00142.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kachergis E, Derner JD, Cutts BB, Roche LM, Eviner VT, Lubell MN, Tate KW (2014) Increasing flexibility in rangeland management during drought. Ecosphere 5:1–14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kates RW, Travis WR, Wilbanks TJ (2012) Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient. PNAS 109:7156–7161

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khaleel R, Reddy KR, Overcash MR (1981) Changes in soil physical properties due to organic waste applications: a review. J Environ Qual 10:133–141

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krafsur ES, Moon RD (1997) Bionomics of the face fly, Musca autumnalis. Annual Review of Entomol 42:503–523

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lark TJ, Salmon JM, Gibbs HK (2015) Cropland expansion outpaces agricultural and biofuel policies in the United States. Environ Res Lett. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/04.4003

  • Lysyk TJ (1999) Effect of temperature on time to eclosion and spring emergence of postdiapausing horn flies (Diptera:Muscidae). Environ Entomol 28:387–397

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mader TL (2003) Environmental stress in confined beef cattle. J Ani Sci 81:E110–E119

    Google Scholar 

  • Mader TL, Dahlquist JM, Gaughan JB (1997) Wind protection effects and airflow patterns in outside feedlots. J Ani Sci 75:26–36

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mader TL, Davis MS, Brown-Brandl T (2006) Environmental factors influencing heat stress in feedlot cattle. J Ani Sci 84:712–719

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marshall NS (2010) Understanding social resilience to climate variability in primary enterprises and industries. Glob Environ Chang 20:36–43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marshall NA, Smajgl A (2013) Understanding variability in adaptive capacity on rangelands. Rangel Ecol Manag 66:88–94

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCartney D, Basarab JA, Okine EK, Baron VS, Depalme AJ (2004) Alternative fall and winter feeding systems for spring calving beef cows. Can J Ani Sci 84:51–522

    Google Scholar 

  • Milchunas DG, Mosier AR, Morgan JA, LeCain DR, King JY, Nelson JA (2005) Elevated CO2 and defoliation effects on a shortgrass steppe: forage quality versus quantity for ruminants. Agric Ecosys Environ 111:166–184

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mortenson MC, Schuman GE, Ingram LJ, Vayigihugu V, Hess BW (2005) Forage production and quality of a mixed-grass rangeland interseeded with Medicago sativa ssp. falcata. Rangel Ecol Manag 58:505–513

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moss R, Scarlett PL, Kenney MA, Kunreuther HC, Lempert R, Manning J et al (2014) Decision support: connecting science, risk perception, and decisions. In: Melilo JM, Richmond TC, Yohe GW (eds) Climate change impacts in the United States: the third National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington DC. doi:10.7930/J0H12ZXG

    Google Scholar 

  • Mueller KE, Blumenthal DM, Pendall E, Carrillo Y, Dijkstra FA, Williams DG, Follett RF, Morgan JA (2016) Impacts of warming and elevated CO2 on a semi-arid grassland are non-additive, shift with precipitation, and reverse over time. Ecol Lett 19:956–966

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Muller B, Quaas MF, Frank K, Baumgartner S (2011) Pitfalls and potential of institutional change: rain-index insurance and the sustainability of rangeland management. Ecol Econ 70:2137–2144

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nardone A, Ronchi B, Lacetera N, Ranieri MS, Bernabucci U (2010) Effects of climate change on animal production and sustainability of livestock systems. Livest Sci 130:57–69

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Agricultural Statistics Service (2012) Census of agriculture

  • Nelson DR, Adger WN, Brown K (2007) Adaptation to environmental change: contributions of a resilience framework. Annu Rev Environ Resour 32:395–419

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nelson R, Kokic P, Crimp S, Howden SM (2010) The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: part 1—conceptualising and measuring vulnerability. Environ Sci Pol 13:8–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peinetti HR, Fredrickson EL, Peters DPC, Cibils AF, Roacho-Estrada JO, Laliberte AS (2011) Foraging behavior of heritage versus recently introduced herbivores on desert landscapes of the American Southwest. Ecosphere 2(5):1–14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pierce DW, Cayan DR, Thrasher BL (2014) Statistical downscaling using localized constructed analogs (LOCA). J Hydrometeorol 15:2558–2585

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pierce DW, Cayan DR, Maurer EP, Abatzoglou JT, Hegewisch KC (2015) Improved bias correction techniques for hydrological simulations of climate change. J Hydrometeorol 16:2421–2442

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Polley HW, Briske DD, Morgan JA, Wolter K, Bailey DW, Brown JR (2013) Climate change and North American rangelands: trends, projections, and implications. Rangel Ecol Manag 66(5):493–511. doi:10.2111/REM-D-12-00068.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rashford BS, Adams RM, Wu J, Voldseth RA, Guntenspergen GR, Werner B, Johnson WC (2016) Impacts of climate change on land use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. Regional Environ Change 16:515–526

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reeves M, Moreno A, Bagne K, Running SW (2014) Estimating the effects of climate change on net primary production of US rangelands. Clim Chang 126:429–442

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reyes-Fox M, Steltzer H, Trlica MJ, McMaster GS, Andales AA, LeCain DR, Morgan JA (2014) Elevated CO2 further lengthens growing season under warming conditions. Nat 510:259–262

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rickards L, Howden SM (2012) Transformational adaptation: agriculture and climate change. Crop & Pasture Sci 63:240–250

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rinella MJ, Bellows SE (2015) Evidence-targeted grazing benefits to invaded rangelands can increase over extended time frames. Rangel Ecol Manag 69:169–172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ritten JP, Frasier WM, Bastian CT, Gray ST (2010) Optimal rangeland stocking decisions under stochastic and climate-impacted weather. Am J Agric Econ 92(4):1242–1255. doi:10.1093/ajae/aaq052

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roche LM, Cutts BB, Derner JD, Lubell MN, Tate KW (2015) On-ranch grazing strategies: context for the rotational grazing dilemma. Rangel Ecol Manag 68:248–256

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rose H, Wang T, van Dijk J, Morgan ER (2015) GLOWORM-FL: a simulation model of the effects of climate and climate change on the free-living stages of gastro-intestinal nematode parasites of ruminants. Ecol Model 297:232–245

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ryberg KR, Akyuz FA, Wiche GJ, Lin W (2016) Changes in seasonality and timing of peak streamflow in snow and semi-arid climates of the north-central United States, 1910-2012. Hydrol Process 30:1208–1218

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scasta JD (2015) Livestock parasite management on high-elevation rangelands: ecological interactions of climate, habitat, and wildlife. J Integr Pest Manag 6(1):1–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scasta JD, Talley JL, Engle DM, Debinski DM (2017) Climate extremes, vegetation change, and decoupling of interactive fire-grazing processes exacerbate fly parasitism of cattle. Environ Entomol 46:191–200

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shafroth PB, Stromberg JC, Patten DT (2002) Riparian vegetation response to altered disturbance and stress regimes. Ecol Appl 12:107–123

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stockton MC, Adams DC, Wilson RK, Klpenstein TJ, Clark RT, Carriker GI (2007) Production and economic comparisons of two calving dates for beef cows in the Nebraska Sandhills. Prof Anim Sci 23:500–508

    Google Scholar 

  • St-Pierre NR, Cobanov B, Schnitkey G (2003) Economic losses from heat stress by US livestock industries. J Dairy Sci 86:E52–E77

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tolleson DR, Schafer DW (2014) Application of fecal near-infrared spectroscopy and nutritional balance software to monitor diet quality and body condition in beef cows grazing Arizona rangeland. J Ani Sci 92:349–358

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Torell LA, Murugan S, Ramirez OA (2010) Economics of flexible versus conservative stocking strategies to manage climate variability risk. Rangel Ecol Manag 63:415–425

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Troy TJ, Kipgen JC, Pal I (2015) The impact of climate extremes and irrigation on US crop yields. Environ Res Letters 10. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054013

  • Vincent K (2007) Uncertainty in adaptive capacity and the importance of scale. Glob Environ Chang 17:12–24

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wright CK, Wimberly MC (2013) Recent land use change in the Western Corn Belt threatens grasslands and wetlands. PNAS 110:4134–4139

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Justin Derner.

Additional information

This article is part of a Special Issue on “Vulnerability Assessment of US Agriculture and Forests developed by the USDA Climate Hubs” edited by Jerry L. Hatfield, Rachel Steele, Beatrice van Horne, and William Gould.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Derner, J., Briske, D., Reeves, M. et al. Vulnerability of grazing and confined livestock in the Northern Great Plains to projected mid- and late-twenty-first century climate. Climatic Change 146, 19–32 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2029-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2029-6

Navigation