Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Climate change threats to one of the world’s largest cross-country skiing races

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between climate variability and the participant cancellation ratio at one of the world’s oldest, longest and largest cross-country skiing races, the Vasaloppet. This race is held in the Swedish region of Dalarna on the first Sunday of March each year. Data are based on the number of registered and starting skiers and local weather conditions (natural snow supply and temperature) for the period 1951–2016. As the dependent variable is bounded between zero and one, the fractional logit model is employed. Estimations show that a lack of natural snow significantly increases the cancellation ratio. In particular, a decline in snow depth from the average level of 57 to 30 cm over the sample period leads to an increase of 3.3 percentage points in the cancellation ratio. Interestingly, the dependence on natural snow has declined in absolute terms in recent years due to various adaptation practices, such as snow storage and snow production.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. http://www.vbm.se/sv/se-and-gora/utstallningar/skidutstallningen.html.

  2. https://www.olympic.org/cross-country-skiing.

  3. http://www.fis-ski.com/cross-country/.

  4. http://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-amne/levnadsforhallanden/levnadsforhallanden/undersokningarna-av-levnadsforhallanden-ulf-silc/pong/publikationer/fritid-2014-2015/, downloaded 5/2017.

  5. DOKTORN.com ‘Var tionde åkare kommer inte till start i Vasaloppet – förkylning vanligaste orsaken’. http://www.doktorn.com/artikel/var-tionde-åkare-kommer-inte-till-start-i-vasaloppet-förkylning-vanligaste-orsaken. Downloaded 2016:11.

  6. Based on correspondence with the providers of cross-country tracks in Sweden. For optimal race conditions, 20 cm of snow depth is not sufficient.

  7. Average snow depth in Sälen by decade: 1950s, 56 cm; 1960s, 62 cm; 1970s, 59 cm; 1980s, 69 cm; 1990s, 50 cm; 2000s, 57 cm; and 2010s, 45 cm (source—SMHI).

  8. The test statistics for the cancellation ratio, logarithm of snow depth and temperatures are −4.381, −6.507 and −7.095 with MacKinnon p values of <0.01. Time trend is not significant and thus excluded from the ADF tests.

  9. http://www.vasaloppet.se/om-oss/vara-partners/officiella-vasaloppscenter/.

References

  • Becken S (2013) A review of tourism and climate change as an evolving knowledge domain. Tour Manag Perspect 6:53–62

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brouder P, Lundmark L (2011) Climate change in northern Sweden: intra-regional perceptions of vulnerability among winter-oriented tourism businesses. J Sustain Tour 19(8):919–933

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Damm A, Köberl J, Prettenthaler F (2014) Does artificial snow production pay under future climate conditions?—a case study for a vulnerable ski area in Austria. Tour Manag 43:8–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Jong C (2015) Challenges for mountain hydrology in the third millennium. Front Environ Sci 3(38):1–13

    Google Scholar 

  • Englin J, Moeltner K (2004) The value of snowfall to skiers and boarders. Environ Resour Econ 29(1):123–136

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Falk M, Hagsten E (2016) Importance of early snowfall for Swedish ski resorts: evidence based on monthly data. Tour Manag 53:61–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fredman P, Heberlein TA (2003) Changes in skiing and snowmobiling in Swedish mountains. Ann Tour Res 30(2):485–488

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gonseth C (2013) Impact of snow variability on the Swiss winter tourism sector: implications in an era of climate change. Clim Chang 119(2):307–320

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gössling S, Hall CM (2006) Uncertainties in predicting tourist flows under scenarios of climate change. Clim Chang 79(3–4):163–173

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haanpää S, Juhola S, Landauer M (2015) Adapting to climate change: perceptions of vulnerability of down-hill ski area operators in southern and middle Finland. Curr Issue Tour 18(10):966–978

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hajibaba H, Boztuğ Y, Dolnicar S (2016) Preventing tourists from cancelling in times of crises. Ann Tour Res 60:48–62

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton LC, Brown C, Keim BD (2007) Ski areas, weather and climate: time series models for New England case studies. Int J Climatol 27(15):2113–2124

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heberlein TA, Fredman P, Vuorio T (2002) Current tourism patterns in the Swedish mountain region. Mt Res Dev 22(2):142–149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2014) Climate change, 2014: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, Geneva Retrieved 22 March 2017; http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap23_FINAL.pdf

  • Jylhä K, Fronzek S, Tuomenvirta H, Carter TR, Ruosteenoja K (2008) Changes in frost, snow and Baltic Sea ice by the end of the twenty-first century based on climate model projections for Europe. Clim Chang 86(3–4):441–462

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaján E, Saarinen J (2013) Tourism, climate change and adaptation: a review. Curr Issue Tour 16(2):167–195

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koetse MJ, Rietveld P (2009) The impact of climate change and weather on transport: an overview of empirical findings. Transp Res Part D: Transp Environ 14(3):205–221

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Landauer M, Pröbstl U, Haider W (2012) Managing cross-country skiing destinations under the conditions of climate change—scenarios for destinations in Austria and Finland. Tour Manag 33(4):741–751

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Landauer M, Haider W, Pröbstl-Haider U (2014) The influence of culture on climate change adaptation strategies: preferences of cross-country skiers in Austria and Finland. J Travel Res 53(1):96–110

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loomis JB, Crespi J (1999) Estimated effects of climate change on selected outdoor recreation activities in the United States. In: Mendelsohn R, Neumann JE (eds) The impact of climate change on the United States economy. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 289–314

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Marty C (2008) Regime shift of snow days in Switzerland. Geophys Res Lett 35(12):L12501

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moen J, Fredman P (2007) Effects of climate change on alpine skiing in Sweden. J Sustain Tour 15(4):418–437

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neuvonen M, Sievänen T, Fronzek S, Lahtinen I, Veijalainen N, Carter TR (2015) Vulnerability of cross-country skiing to climate change in Finland—an interactive mapping tool. J Outdoor Recreat Tour 11:64–79

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Papke LE, Wooldridge JM (1996) Econometric models for fractional response variables with an application to 401(k) participation rates. J Appl Econ 11(4):619–632

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pons M, López-Moreno JI, Rosas-Casals M, Jover È (2015) The vulnerability of Pyrenean ski resorts to climate-induced changes in the snowpack. Clim Chang 131(4):591–605

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pouta E, Neuvonen M, Sievänen T (2009) Participation in cross-country skiing in Finland under climate change: application of multiple hierarchy stratification perspective. J Leis Res 41(1):91–108

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosselló-Nadal J (2014) How to evaluate the effects of climate change on tourism. Tour Manag 42:334–340

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sælen H, Ericson T (2013) The recreational value of different winter conditions in Oslo forests: a choice experiment. J Environ Manag 131:426–434

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scott D, Hall CM, Gössling S (2012) Tourism and climate change Impacts, adaptation & mitigation. Routledge, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Scott D, Steiger R, Rutty M, Johnson P (2015) The future of the Olympic Winter Games in an era of climate change. Curr Issue Tour 18(10):913–930

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shih C, Nicholls S, Holecek DF (2009) Impact of weather on downhill ski lift ticket sales. J Travel Res 47(3):359–372

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Skidspår (2017) https://www.skidspar.se/nyheter/mest-besokta-anlaggningarna-16-17, retrieved 23 March, 2017

  • Smithson M, Verkuilen J (2006) A better lemon squeezer? Maximum-likelihood regression with beta-distributed dependent variables. Psychol Methods 11(1):54–71

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Steiger R (2010) The impact of climate change on ski season length and snowmaking requirements. Clim Res 43(3):251–262

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Steiger R (2011) The impact of snow scarcity on ski tourism. An analysis of the record warm season 2006/07 in Tyrol (Austria). Tourism Review 66:4–13

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tervo K (2008) The operational and regional vulnerability of winter tourism to climate variability and change: the case of the Finnish nature-based tourism entrepreneurs. Scand J Hosp Tour 8(4):317–332

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tervo-Kankare K (2011) The consideration of climate change at the tourism destination level in Finland: coordinated collaboration or talk about weather? Tour Plann Dev 8(4):399–414

    Google Scholar 

  • Tervo-Kankare K, Hall CM, Saarinen J (2013) Christmas tourists perceptions to climate change in Rovaniemi, Finland. Tour Geogr 15(2):292–317

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Töglhofer C, Eigner F, Prettenthaler F (2011) Impacts of snow conditions on tourism demand in Austrian ski areas. Clim Res 46(1):1–14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Visser H, Petersen AC (2009) The likelihood of holding outdoor skating marathons in the Netherlands as a policy-relevant indicator of climate change. Clim Chang 93(1–2):39–54

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wern L (2015) Snödjup i Sverige 1904/05–2013/14 Rapport Serie: Meteorologi 158 SMHI

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Iceland School of Social Sciences, Reykjavík, Iceland

    Martin Falk & Eva Hagsten

Authors
  1. Martin Falk
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Eva Hagsten
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Eva Hagsten.

Electronic supplementary material

ESM 1

(DOCX 31 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Falk, M., Hagsten, E. Climate change threats to one of the world’s largest cross-country skiing races. Climatic Change 143, 59–71 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1992-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1992-2

Search

Navigation