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Table 3 Estimated wildfire response costs for each of the five GCMs and two RCPs for the 2006–2100 time period, reported for the entire state and each FMO, and for costs per unit area calculated from all wildfires and for only those fires reporting costs

From: Estimating wildfire response costs in Alaska’s changing climate

  Statewide FMO
Total Critical Full Modified Limited
Response cost based on costs from all fires (millions of USD, 2015$)
 RCP8.5
  CCSM4 $1309
($889, $1869)
$53 $843 $182 $231
  GFDL-CM3 $1497
($1039, $2128)
$57 $993 $199 $249
  GISS-E2-R $886
($562, $1363)
$36 $566 $125 $159
  IPSL-CM5-LR $1459
($972, $2133)
$53 $940 $207 $259
  MRI-CGCM3 $807
($518, $1220)
$32 $539 $105 $131
  Ensemble mean $1192
($270, $1653)
$46
($4, $112)
$776
($186, $1066)
$163
($30, $220)
$206
($50, $255)
 RCP4.5
  CCSM4 $1404
($972, $1995)
$57 $898 $204 $245
  GFDL-CM3 $1348
($907, $1972)
$49 $891 $181 $227
  GISS-E2-R $750
($460, $1191)
$32 $487 $101 $130
  IPSL-CM5-LR $1366
($920, $1985)
$50 $902 $178 $236
  MRI-CGCM3 $864
($569, $1298)
$31 $567 $117 $149
  Ensemble mean $1146
($245, $1524)
$44
($4, $104)
$749
($166, $986)
$156
($28, $201)
$197
($48, $233)
Response cost based on costs from fires with reported costs only (millions of USD, 2015$)
 RCP8.5
  CCSM4 $2303
($1592, $3235)
$54 $1236 $426 $587
  GFDL-CM3 $2612
($1838, $3659)
$59 $1456 $465 $633
  GISS-E2-R $1563
($1009, $2358)
$37 $830 $293 $403
  IPSL-CM5-LR $2577
($1743, $3707)
$54 $1379 $484 $660
  MRI-CGCM3 $1402
($916, $2080)
$33 $790 $245 $334
  Ensemble mean $2091
($475, $2841)
$47
($4, $114)
$1138
($273, $1564)
$383
($71, $515)
$523
($127, $648)
 RCP4.5
  CCSM4 $2475
($1744, $3460)
$58 $1316 $477 $624
  GFDL-CM3 $2358
($1608, $3394)
$50 $1,307 $424 $578
  GISS-E2-R $1314
($820, $2045)
$33 $714 $237 $331
  IPSL-CM5-LR $2391
($1628, $3426)
$51 $1323 $417 $600
  MRI-CGCM3 $1515
($1015, $2234)
$32 $831 $273 $378
  Ensemble mean $2011
($434, $2616)
$45
($4, $106)
$1098
($243, $1446)
$366
($65, $471)
$502
($122, $592)
  1. Values represent the median value across the two hundred replicate simulations for each GCM × RCP combination. The 25th and 75th percentile values are shown for select measurements in the format (25th percentile, 75th percentile)