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Climatic Change

, Volume 141, Issue 3, pp 517–532 | Cite as

Inter-model comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change on the Upper Blue Nile basin using ensemble of hydrological models and global climate models

  • A. D. Teklesadik
  • T. Alemayehu
  • A. van Griensven
  • R. Kumar
  • S. Liersch
  • S. Eisner
  • J. Tecklenburg
  • S. Ewunte
  • X. Wang
Article

Abstract

The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts of future climate change on discharge and evapotranspiration of the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin using multiple global circulation models (GCMs) projections and multiple hydrological models (HMs). The uncertainties of projections originating from HMs, GCMs, and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) were also analyzed. This study is part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) initiative (phase 2), which is a community driven modeling effort to assess global socio-economic impacts of climate change. The baseline period of 1981–2010 was used to identify climate change signals in two future periods: mid future (2036–2065) and far future (2070–2099). Our analyses showed that two out of four GCMs indicated a statistically significant increase in projected precipitation in the far future period. The projected change in mean annual precipitation varied between 4 and 10% relative to the baseline period. The HMs did not agree on the direction of climate change impacts on mean annual discharge. Furthermore, simulated changes in mean annual discharge by all HMs, except SWIM which simulated up to 6.6% increase for the far future period, were not statistically significant. All the HMs generally simulated a statistically significant increase in annual mean actual evapotranspiration (AET) in both periods. The HMs simulated changes in AET ranging from 1.9 to 4.4% for the far future period. In the UBN basin GCM structure was the main contributor of uncertainty in mean annual discharge projection followed by HM structure and RCPs, respectively. The results from this research suggest to use multiple impact models as well as multiple GCMs to provide a more robust assessment of climate change impacts in the UBN basin.

Keywords

Climate Change Impact Hydrological Model Projected Change Future Period Annual Discharge 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Supplementary material

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • A. D. Teklesadik
    • 1
  • T. Alemayehu
    • 1
  • A. van Griensven
    • 1
    • 2
  • R. Kumar
    • 3
  • S. Liersch
    • 4
  • S. Eisner
    • 5
  • J. Tecklenburg
    • 4
  • S. Ewunte
    • 1
  • X. Wang
    • 6
  1. 1.Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering DepartmentVrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB)BrusselBelgium
  2. 2.UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water EducationDelftNetherlands
  3. 3.UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental ResearchLeipzigGermany
  4. 4.Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchPotsdamGermany
  5. 5.Center for Environmental Systems Research (CESR)University of KasselKasselGermany
  6. 6.Hohai UniversityNanjingChina

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