Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Projected 21st century changes in tornado exposure, risk, and disaster potential

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

While risk and associated hazard characteristics are important components of disaster formation, the consequences of hazards are often driven by underlying human and built-environment vulnerabilities. Yet, there has been little research conducted on how the evolving contributors of risk and vulnerability commingle to produce disaster potential. In this study, we assess the interaction of risk and vulnerability by investigating a single hazard, the tornado. How future changes in risk and vulnerability influence tornado disaster probability is estimated by integrating, for the first time, projected residential built environment data and modeled future severe weather environments. Results suggest that, although the projected twenty-first century escalation in tornado risk will play a role in increasing disaster consequences and frequency, growth in the human-built environment is projected to outweigh the effects of increased risk on future tornado disaster potential. While changes in societal exposure are projected to overshadow potential climate change-driven alterations in tornado risk, the combination of both an increase in risk and exposure may lead to a threefold increase in median annual tornado impact magnitude and disaster potential from 2010 to 2100.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Agee E, Childs S (2014) Adjustments in tornado counts, F-scale intensity, and path width for assessing significant tornado destruction. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 53:1494–1505

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashley W (2007) Spatial and temporal analysis of tornado fatalities in the United States: 1880–2005. Weather Forecast 22:1214–1228

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashley W, Strader S (2016) Recipe for disaster: how the dynamic ingredients of risk and exposure are changing the tornado disaster landscape. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 97:767–786

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashley W, Krmenec A, Schwantes R (2008) Vulnerability due to nocturnal tornadoes. Weather Forecast 23:795–807

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashley W, Strader S, Rosencrants T, Krmenec A (2014) Spatiotemporal changes in tornado hazard exposure: the case of the expanding bull’s-eye effect in Chicago, Illinois. Weather Clim Soc 6:175–193

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Atkins N, Butler K, Flynn K, Wakimoto R (2014) An integrated damage, visual, and radar analysis of the 2013 Moore, Oklahoma, EF5 tornado. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 95:1549–1561

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bierwagen B, and Coauthors (2010) National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:20887–20892

  • Bouwer L (2011) Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 92:39–46

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bouwer L (2013) Projections of future extreme weather losses under changes in climate and exposure. Risk Anal 33:915–930

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brooks H (2004) On the relationship of tornado path length and width to intensity. Weather Forecast 19:310–319

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brooks HE (2013) Severe thunderstorms and climate change. Atmos Res 123:129–138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brooks H, Doswell C III, Kay M (2003a) Climatological estimates of local daily tornado probability. Weather Forecast 18:626–640

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brooks H, Lee J, Craven J (2003b) The spatial distribution of severe thunderstorm and tornado environments from global reanalysis data. Atmos Res 67:73–94

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brooks H, Carbin G, Marsh P (2014) Increased variability of tornado occurrence in the United States. Science 346:349

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burby R (2003) Cooperating with nature: confronting natural hazards with land-use planning for sustainable communities. Joseph Henry Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Changnon S, Pielke R Jr, Changnon D, Sylves R, Pulwarty R (2000) Human factors explain the increased losses from weather and climate extremes. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81:437–442

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diffenbaugh N, Scherer M, Trapp R (2013) Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing. Proc Natl Acad Sci 110:16361–16366

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dixon P, Grady, Mercer A, Choi J, Allen J (2011) Tornado risk analysis: is Dixie Alley an extension of Tornado Alley?. Bull Amer Met Soc 92:433–441

  • Dixon R, Moore T (2012) Tornado vulnerability in Texas. Weather Clim Soc 4:59–68

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Doswell C III (2007) Small sample size and data quality issues illustrated using tornado occurrence data. Electronic J Severe Storms Meteorol 2:1–16

    Google Scholar 

  • EPA (2009) Land-use scenarios: National-scale housing-density scenarios consistent with climate change storylines. Final report, EPA/600/R-08/076F

  • Gagan J, Gerard A, Gordon J (2010) A historical and statistical comparison of "Tornado Alley" to "Dixie Alley". Natl Wea Dig 34: 145–155

  • Gensini V, Ashley W (2011) Climatology of potentially severe convective environments from the North American regional reanalysis. Electronic J Severe Storms Meteor 6:1–40

  • Gensini V, Mote T (2014) Downscaled estimates of late 21st century severe weather from CCSM3. Clim Chang 129:307–321

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Godschalk D, and Coauthors (1998) Natural hazard mitigation: recasting disaster policy and planning. Island Press, Washington, D.C

  • Höppe P, Pielke, Jr R (2006) Workshop on climate change and disaster losses. Understanding and Attributing Trends & Projections. Final Workshop Report. http://ipcc-wg2.gov/njlite_download.php?id=7313. Accessed 1 Aug 2016

  • Huggel C, Stone D, Auffhammer M, Hansen G (2013) Loss and damage attribution. Nat Clim Chang 3:694–696

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A special report of working groups I & II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2014) Mitigation of climate change. Contribution of working group III to the fifth assessment. Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Janković V, Schultz D (2016) Atmosfear: communicating the effects of climate change on extreme weather. Weather Climate Soc. doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0030.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Kunkel K, Pielke R Jr, Changnon S (1999) Temporal fluctuations in weather and climate extremes that cause economic and human health impacts: a review. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 80:1077–1098

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann M (2014) Modeling residential development in California from 2000 to 2050: integrating wildfire risk, wildland and agricultural encroachment. Land Use Policy 41:438–452

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marsh P, Brooks H, Dixon P, Mercer A (2012) Comments on" Tornado Risk Analysis: Is Dixie Alley an Extension of Tornado Alley?"/Reply to" Comments on'Tornado Risk Analysis: Is Dixie Alley an Extension of Tornado Alley?'". Bull Amer Met Soc 93:405–407

  • Merrell D, Simmons K, Sutter D (2002) Taking shelter: estimating the safety benefits of tornado safe rooms. Weather Forecast 17:619–625

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mohleji S, Pielke R Jr (2014) Reconciliation of trends in global and regional economic losses from weather events: 1980–2008. Nat Hazard Rev 15:04014009-1–04014009-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Academies of Sciences (NAS) (2016) Attribution of extreme weather events in the contest of climate change. The National Academies Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Paton D, Johnston D (2006) Disaster resilience: an integrated approach. Charles C Thomas Pub Ltd, Springfield

    Google Scholar 

  • Paul B (2011) Environmental hazards and disasters: contexts, perspectives and management. Wiley, Somerset

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Pearce L (2003) Disaster management and community planning, and public participation: how to achieve sustainable hazard mitigation. Nat Hazards 28:211–228

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pielke R Jr (2005) Attribution of disaster losses. Science 311:1615–1616

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pielke Jr R (2014) Disasters cost more than ever—but not because of climate change. fivethirtyeight.com. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/disasters-cost-more-than-ever-but-not-because-of-climate-change/. Accessed 1 Mar 2016

  • Prevatt D, and Coauthors (2012) Making the case for improved structural design: tornado outbreaks of 2011. Leadership & Management in Engineering 12:254–270

  • Rosencrants T, Ashley W (2015) Spatiotemporal analysis of tornado exposure in five U.S. metropolitan areas. Nat Hazards 78:121–140

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simmons K, Sutter D (2007) Tornado shelters and the housing market. Constr Manage Econ 25:1119–1126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simmons K, Sutter D (2011) Economic and societal impacts of tornadoes. American Meteorological Society, Boston

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Simmons K, Sutter D, Pielke R (2013) Normalized tornado damage in the United States: 1950–2011. Environ Hazard 12:132–147

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simmons K, Kovacs P, Kopp G (2015) Tornado damage mitigation: benefit–cost analysis of enhanced building codes in Oklahoma. Weather Clim Soc 7:169–178

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Strader S, Pingel T, Ashley W (2016a) A Monte Carlo model for estimating tornado impacts. Meteorol Appl 23:269–289

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Strader S, Ashley W, Pingel T, Krmenec A (2016b) Observed and projected changes in United States tornado exposure. Weather Clim Soc. doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0041.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Theobald D (2005) Landscape patterns of exurban growth in the USA from 1980 to 2020. Ecol Soc 10

  • Tippett M, Allen J, Gensini V, Brooks H (2015) Climate and hazardous convective weather. Our Climate Chang Rep 1:60–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tippett M, Lepore C, Cohen J (2016) More tornadoes in the most extreme US tornado outbreaks. Science 354:1419–1423

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trapp R, and Coauthors (2007) Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing. Proc Natl Acad Sci 104:19719–19723

  • Trapp R, Hoogewind K (2016) The realization of extreme tornadic storm events under future anthropogenic climate change. J Clim. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0623.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Verbout S, Brooks H, Leslie L, Schultz D (2006) Evolution of the US tornado database: 1954–2003. Weather Forecast 21:86–93

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Visser H, Petersen A, Ligtvoet W (2014) On the relation between weather-related disaster impacts, vulnerability and climate change. Clim Chang 125:461–477

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wachinger G, Renn O, Begg C, Kuhlicke C (2013) The risk perception paradox—implications for governance and communication of natural hazards. Risk Anal 33:1049–1065

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Drs. Jeff Trapp and Kim Hoogewind (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign) for their suggestions and thoughts on the future tornado risk scenarios. We also thank the anonymous reviewers whose recommendations and feedback greatly strengthened the manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography and the Environment, Villanova University, Mendel Hall, Rm. G67, Villanova, PA, 19085, USA

    Stephen M. Strader

  2. Department of Geography, Northern Illinois University, Davis Hall, Rm. 118, DeKalb, IL, 60115, USA

    Walker S. Ashley, Thomas J. Pingel & Andrew J. Krmenec

Authors
  1. Stephen M. Strader
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Walker S. Ashley
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Thomas J. Pingel
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Andrew J. Krmenec
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Stephen M. Strader.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Strader, S.M., Ashley, W.S., Pingel, T.J. et al. Projected 21st century changes in tornado exposure, risk, and disaster potential. Climatic Change 141, 301–313 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1905-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1905-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation