Abstract
In an attempt to estimate accurate local sea level change, “sea level trend” modes are identified and separated from natural variability via cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis applied to both the tide gauge data (1965–2013) and the reconstruction data (1950–2010) around the Korean Peninsula. For the tide gauge data, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method is also used to estimate sea level trend to understand an uncertainty from different analysis tools. The three trend models—linear, quadratic, and exponential—are fitted to the amplitude time series of the trend mode so that future projection of sea level can be made. Based on a quadratic model, the rate of local sea level rise (SLR) is expected to be 4.63 ± 1.1 mm year−1 during 2010–2060. The estimates of “local” sea level trend vary up to ∼30%. It should be noted that, although the three trend models estimate similar sea level trends during the observational period, the projected sea level trend and subsequent SLR differ significantly from one model to another and between the tide gauge data and the reconstruction data; this results in a substantial uncertainty in the future SLR around the Korean Peninsula.
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Acknowledgments
This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180 to Yeonjoo Kim as well as the SNU-Yonsei Research Cooperation Program through Seoul National University to Kwang-Yul Kim. The datasets used in this study can be acquired by writing an email to the corresponding author.
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Kim, KY., Kim, Y. A comparison of sea level projections based on the observed and reconstructed sea level data around the Korean Peninsula. Climatic Change 142, 23–36 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1901-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1901-8