Advertisement

Climatic Change

, Volume 138, Issue 3–4, pp 439–451 | Cite as

Perceptions of environmental change and migration decisions

  • Vally Koubi
  • Sebastian Stoll
  • Gabriele Spilker
Article

Abstract

While climate change is projected to increase displacement of people, knowledge on this issue remains limited and fragmented. In his paper we focus on the micro-level and study the effects of individual perceptions of different types of environmental events (i.e., sudden/short-term vs. slow-onset/long-term) on migration decisions. Our results based on newly collected micro-level survey data from Vietnam shows that while slow-onset environmental events, such as droughs, significantly decrease the likelihood of migration, short-term events, such as floods, are positively related to migration, although not in a statistically significant way. When contrasting individual level perceptions with actual climatic events we observe that migrants and non-migrants perceive both long-term as well as sudden-onset environmental events in different ways. While non-migrants are slightly better in judging the actual extremeness of events such as floods and hurricanes, it is the migrants who are slightly better in judging the actual extremeness in the case of droughts.

Keywords

Environmental Event Standardize Precipitation Index Migration Decision Environmental Perception Actual Extremeness 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Supplementary material

10584_2016_1767_MOESM1_ESM.docx (37 kb)
ESM 1 (DOCX 36 kb)

References

  1. Adger NW, Arnell NW, Black R, Dercon S, Geddes A, Thomas DSG (2015) Focus on environmental risks and migration: causes and consequences. Environ Res Lett 10(1): 060201.Google Scholar
  2. Bardsley DK, Hugo GJ (2010) Migration and climate change: Examining thresholds of change to guide effective adaptation decision-making. Population & Environment 32(2):238–262CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Becker A, Finger P, Meyer-Christoffer A, Rudolf B, Schamm K, Schneider U, Ziese M (2013) A description of the global land-surface precipitation data products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre with sample applications including centennial (trend) analysis from 1901–present. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 5:71–99. doi: 10.5194/essd-5-71-2013 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Black R, Collyer M (2014) Populations ‘Trapped’ at Times of Crisis. Forced Migration Review 45:52–56Google Scholar
  5. Black R, Kniveton D, Schmidt-Verkerk K (2011a) Migration and climate change: towards an integrated assessment of sensitivity. Environ Plan 43(2):431–450CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Black R, Adger WN, Arnell NW, Dercon S, Geddes A, Thomas DSG (2011b) The effect of environmental change on human migration. Glob Environ Chang 21(S1):S3–S11CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Black R, Arnell NW, Adger WN, Thomas D, Geddes A (2013) Migration, immobility, and displacement outcomes of extreme events in nature and society. Environmental Science and Policy 27(1):S32–S43CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Bohra-Mishra P, Oppenheimer M, Hsiang SM (2014) Nonlinear permanent migration response to climatic variations but minimal response to disasters. Proceeding of the National. Acad Sci 111(27):9780–9785CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Bylander M (2013) Depending on the sky: environmental distress, migration, and coping in rural Cambodia. Int Migr 53(5):135–147CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Dasgupta S, Laplante B, Meisner C, Wheeler D, Yan J (2009) The impact of sea level rise on developing countries. A comparative analysis. Clim Chang 93:379–388CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Dessai S, Adger WN, Hulme M, Turnpenny J, Köhler J, Warren R (2004) Defining and experiencing dangerous climate change: an editorial essay. Clim Chang 64:11–25CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Dun O (2011) Migration and displacement triggered by floods in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Int Migr 49(S1):e200–e223CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Dun O, Gemenne F (2008) Defining environmental migration. Forced Migration Review 31:10–11Google Scholar
  14. Findley S (1994) Does drought increase migration? A study of migration from rural Mali during the 1983-1985 drought. Int Migr Rev 28(3):539–553CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Foresight Migration and Global Environmental Change (2011) Final Project Report. The Government Office for Science, London. http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/migration.
  16. Gemenne F (2011) Why the numbers don’t add up: a review of estimates and predictions of people displaced by environmental changes. Glob Environ Chang 21:S41–S49CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. General Statistics Office of Vietnam (2013) Socio-economic situation in 2013. http://www.gso.gov.vn/default_en.aspx?tabid=622&ItemID=13848
  18. Gray CL, Bilsborrow R (2013) Environmental influences on human migration in rural Ecuador. Demography 50:1217–1241CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Gray C, Mueller V (2012) Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh. Proc Natl Acad Sci 109(16):6000–6005CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Greene William H (2003) Econometric analysis, 5th edn. Upper Saddle River, New JerseyGoogle Scholar
  21. Guha-Sapir D, Below R, Hoyois Ph (2016) EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels (Belgium), www.emdat.be.
  22. Harris I, Jones PD (2015) CRU TS3.23: Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) Version 3.23 of High Resolution Gridded Data of Month-by-month Variation in Climate (Jan. 1901- Dec. 2014). Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, 09 November 2015. doi: 10.5285/4c7fdfa6-f176-4c58-acee-683d5e9d2ed5.
  23. Harris JR, Todaro MP (1970) Migration, unemployment, and development: a two-sector analysis. Am Econ Rev 60(1):126–142Google Scholar
  24. Hunter LM, Luna JK, Norton RM (2015) Environmental dimensions of migration. Annu Rev Sociol 41(6):1–21Google Scholar
  25. Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) (2015) Global Estimates 2015. People displaced by disasters. IDMC, Geneva. www.internal-displacement.org/publications/2015/global-estimates-2015-people-displaced-by-disasters/.
  26. IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (2014a) Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_LONGERREPORT.pdf
  27. IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (2014b) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, And Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Chapter 24: Asia, p.1355 https://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap24_FINAL.pdf
  28. Kniveton D, Schmidt-Verkerk K, Smith C, Black R (2008) Climate Change and Migration: Improving Methodologies to Estimate Flows. Migration Research Series No. 33. Geneva: International Organization for Migration.Google Scholar
  29. Koubi V, Spilker G, Schaffer L, Bernauer T (2016) Environmental stressors and migration: evidence from Vietnam. World Dev 79:197–210CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Laczko F, Aghazarm C (Eds) (2009). Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence. Geneva, CH: International Organization for Migration (IOM).Google Scholar
  31. Loewenstein G, Weber EU, Hsee CK, Welch N (2001) Risk as feelings. Psychol Bull 127(2):267–286CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Massey DS (1990a) The social and economic origins of immigration. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 510(1):60–72CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Massey DS (1990b) Social structure, household strategies, and the cumulative causation of migration. Population Index 56(1):3–26CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Massey DS, Axinn W, Ghimire D (2010) Environmental change and out-migration: evidence from Nepal. Popul Environ 32(1):109–136CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. McKee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration of time scales. Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Jan17–23, 1993, Anaheim CA, pp.179–186.Google Scholar
  36. McKee T B, Doesken N J and Kleist J (1995) Drought monitoring with multiple time scales. Ninth Conference on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Jan15–20, 1995, Dallas TX, pp.233–236.Google Scholar
  37. McLeman R (2012) Developments in modeling of climate change-related migration. Clim Chang 117(3):599–611CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. McLeman R (2014) Climate and human migration: past, experiences, future challenges. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  39. Meze-Hausken E (2004) Contrasting climate variability and meteorological drought with perceived drought and climate change in northern Ethiopia. Clim Res 27:19–31CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Meze-Hausken E (2008) On the (im-)possibilities of defining human climate thresholds. Clim Chang 89:299–324CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Mortreux C, Barnett J (2009) Climate change, migration and adaptation in Funafuti, Tuvalu. Glob Environ Chang 19:105–112CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Mueller V, Gray C, Kosec K (2014) Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan. Nat Clim Chang 4:182–185CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Myers N (2002) Environmental refugees: a growing phenomenon of the twenty-first century. Philos Trans R Soc 357(1420): 609–613.Google Scholar
  44. Nawrotzki RJ, Bakhtsiyarava M (2016) International climate migration: Evidence for the climate inhibitor mechanism and the agricultural pathway. Population, Space & Place, Online, pp. 1–16. doi: 10.1002/psp.2033 Google Scholar
  45. Nawrotzki RJ, Riosmena F, Hunter LM (2013) Do rainfall deficits predict U.S.-bound migration from rural Mexico? Evidence from the Mexican census. Popul Res Policy Rev 32(1):129–158CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Nawrotzki RJ, Riosmena F, Hunter LM, Runfola DM (2015a) Amplification or suppression: social networks and the climate change-migration association in rural Mexico. Glob Environ Chang 35:463–474CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Nawrotzki RJ, Riosmena F, Hunter LM, Runfola DM (2015b) Undocumented migration in response to climate change. International. Journal of Population Studies 1(1):60–74Google Scholar
  48. Penning-Rowsell E, Sultana P, Thompson PM (2013) The ‘last resort’? Population movement in response to climate-related hazards in Bangladesh. Environmental Science and Policy 27 s: s44-s59.Google Scholar
  49. Piguet E (2010) Linking climate change, environmental degradation, and migration: a methodological overview. Climate Change 1(4):517–524Google Scholar
  50. Renaud FG, Dun O, Warner C, Bogardi J (2011) A decision framework for environmentally induced migration. Int Migr 49(1):e3–e29Google Scholar
  51. Schapendonk J (2015) What if networks move? Dynamic social networking in the context of African migration to Europe. Population, Space and Place 21(8):809–819CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Slegers MFW (2008) If only it would rain: farmers’ perceptions of rainfall and drought in semi-arid Central Tanzania. J Arid Environ 72:2106–2123CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Stark O, Bloom DE (1985) The new economics of labor migration. Am Econ Rev 75(1):173–178Google Scholar
  54. Todaro MP (1969) A model of labor migration and urban unemployment in less developed countries. Am Econ Rev 59(1):138–148Google Scholar
  55. Van der Geest K, de Jeu R (2008) Ghana. In M. Couldrey and M. Herson (eds.), Climate Change and Displacement. Forced Migration Review, issue 31. Oxford: Refugee Studies Centre, University of Oxford, UNEP 16.Google Scholar
  56. Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, Lopez-Moreno J-I (2010) A multi-scalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index – SPEI. J Clim 23:1686–1718CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Vally Koubi
    • 1
  • Sebastian Stoll
    • 2
  • Gabriele Spilker
    • 3
  1. 1.ETH Zurich, Zurich and University of BernBernSwitzerland
  2. 2.EawagDübendorfSwitzerland
  3. 3.University of SalzburgSalzburgAustria

Personalised recommendations