Skip to main content

The El Niño – La Niña cycle and recent trends in supply and demand of net primary productivity in African drylands

Climatic Change volume 138, pages 111–125 (2016)Cite this article

Abstract

Inter-annual climatic variability over a large portion of sub-Saharan Africa is under the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Extreme variability in climate is a threat to rural livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa, yet the role of ENSO in the balance between supply and demand of net primary productivity (NPP) over this region is unclear. Here, we analyze the impact of ENSO on this balance in a spatially explicit framework using gridded population data from the WorldPop project, satellite-derived data on NPP supply, and statistical data from the United Nations. Our analyses demonstrate that between 2000 and 2013 fluctuations in the supply of NPP associated with moderate ENSO events average ± 2.8 g C m−2 yr.−1 across sub-Saharan drylands. The greatest sensitivity is in arid Southern Africa where a + 1 °C change in the Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature index is associated with a mean change in NPP supply of −6.6 g C m−2 yr.−1. Concurrently, the population-driven trend in NPP demand averages 3.5 g C m−2 yr.−1 over the entire region with densely populated urban areas exhibiting the highest mean demand for NPP. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for the role ENSO plays in modulating the balance between supply and demand of NPP in sub-Saharan drylands. An important implication of these findings is that increase in NPP demand for socio-economic metabolism must be taken into account within the context of climate-modulated supply.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

References

  • Abdi AM, Seaquist J, Tenenbaum DE, Eklundh L, Ardo J (2014) The supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel. Environ Res Lett 9:094003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Abdissa F, Degefa T (2011) Urbanization and changing livelihoods: the case of farmers’ displacement in the expansion of Addis Ababa. In: Teller C (ed) The demographic transition and development in Africa: the unique case of Ethiopia. Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, pp. 215–235

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Adugna A, Hailemariam A (2011) Rural–urban linkages in ethiopia: insuring rural livelihoods and development of urban centers. In: Teller C (ed) The demographic transition and development in Africa. Springer, Netherlands, pp. 167–186

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Ahlström A, Raupach MR, Schurgers G, Smith B, Arneth A, Jung M, Reichstein M, Canadell JG, Friedlingstein P, Jain AK, Kato E, Poulter B, Sitch S, Stocker BD, Viovy N, Wang YP, Wiltshire A, Zaehle S, Zeng N (2015) The dominant role of semi-arid ecosystems in the trend and variability of the land CO2 sink. Science 348:895–899

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Andela N, van der Werf GR (2014) Recent trends in African fires driven by cropland expansion and el Nino to La Nina transition. Nat Clim Chang 4:791–795

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bailis R, Drigo R, Ghilardi A, Masera O (2015) The carbon footprint of traditional woodfuels. Nat Clim Chang 5:266–272

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barrett CB (2010) Measuring food insecurity. Science 327:825–828

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barrett CB, Upton JB (2013) Food security and sociopolitical stability in sub-Saharan Africa. Food security and sociopolitical stability. Oxford University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Battisti DS, Naylor RL (2009) Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science 323:240–244

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bekunda M, Sanginga N, Woomer PL (2010) Restoring soil fertility in sub-Sahara Africa. In Donald LS (ed.) Advances in agronomy. Academic Press, pp. 183–236

  • Bolognesi M, Vrieling A, Rembold F, Gadain H (2015) Rapid mapping and impact estimation of illegal charcoal production in southern Somalia based on WorldView-1 imagery. Energy Sustain Dev 25:40–49

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cai W, Santoso A, Wang G, Yeh S-W, An S-I, Cobb KM, Collins M, Guilyardi E, Jin F-F, Kug J-S, Lengaigne M, McPhaden MJ, Takahashi K, Timmermann A, Vecchi G, Watanabe M, Wu L (2015) ENSO and greenhouse warming. Nat Clim Chang 5:849–859

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Campbell MM, Casterline J, Castillo F, Graves A, Hall TL, May JF, Perlman D, Potts M, Speidel JJ, Walsh J, Wehner MF, Zulu EM (2014) Population and climate change: who will the grand convergence leave behind? The Lancet Global Health 2:e253–e254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cane MA, Eshel G, Buckland RW (1994) Forecasting Zimbabwean maize yield using eastern equatorial Pacific Sea surface temperature. Nature 370:204–205

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cheung Y-W, de Haan J, Qian X, Yu S (2012) China's outward direct investment in Africa. Rev Int Econ 20:201–220

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eozenou PH-V, Madani D, Swinkels R (2013) Poverty, malnutrition and vulnerability in Mali. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 6561. The World Bank, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • FAO (2011) Review of the availability and quality of official data from African commission on agricultural statistics member countries. Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

  • FAO (2013) CountrySTAT Mali. Statistics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, Italy

  • FAOSTAT (2015) FAO statistical databases. Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy

  • Fetzel T, Niedertscheider M, Haberl H, Krausmann F, Erb K-H (2016) Patterns and changes of land use and land-use efficiency in Africa 1980–2005: an analysis based on the human appropriation of net primary production framework. Reg Environ Change 16:1507–1520

  • FEWSNET (2016) Southern Africa: illustrating the extent and severity of the 2015–16 drought. Famine Early Warning Systems Network/USAID

  • Giannini A, Biasutti M, Held IM, Sobel AH (2008) A global perspective on African climate. Clim Chang 90:359–383

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Greve P, Orlowsky B, Mueller B, Sheffield J, Reichstein M, Seneviratne SI (2014) Global assessment of trends in wetting and drying over land. Nat Geosci 7:716–721

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

  • Itannam F, Olsson M (2004) Land degradation in Addis Ababa due to industrial and urban development. Ethiopian J Dev Res 26:77–100

    Google Scholar 

  • Knox J, Hess T, Daccache A, Wheeler T (2012) Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia. Environ Res Lett 7:034032

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Korecha D, Barnston AG (2007) Predictability of June–September rainfall in Ethiopia. Mon Weather Rev 135:628–650

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Korecha D, Sorteberg A (2013) Validation of operational seasonal rainfall forecast in Ethiopia. Water Resour Res 49:7681–7697

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Linard C, Gilbert M, Snow RW, Noor AM, Tatem AJ (2012) Population distribution, settlement patterns and accessibility across Africa in 2010. PLoS One 7:e31743

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society:245–259

  • Maxwell D, Fitzpatrick M (2012) The 2011 Somalia famine: context, causes, and complications. Global Food Security 1:5–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moller LC (2012) The Ethiopian urban migration study 2008: the characteristics, motives and outcomes to immigrants to Addis Ababa. The World Bank, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Monteith JL (1972) Solar radiation and productivity in tropical ecosystems. J Appl Ecol 9:747–766

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholson SE (2011) Dryland climatology. Cambridge University Press

  • Philippon N, Martiny N, Camberlin P, Hoffman MT, Gond V (2014) Timing and patterns of the ENSO signal in Africa over the last 30 Years: insights from normalized difference vegetation index data. J Clim 27:2509–2532

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pires M (2003) The spatial polarization of woodfuel supply and demand in Senegal. African Geographical Review 22:29–47

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reda DT, Engida AN, Asfaw DH, Hamdi R (2015) Analysis of precipitation based on ensembles of regional climate model simulations and observational databases over Ethiopia for the period 1989–2008. Int J Climatol 35:948–971

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robertson B, Pinstrup-Andersen P (2010) Global land acquisition: neo-colonialism or development opportunity? Food Sec 2:271–283

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Running SW (2012) A measurable planetary boundary for the biosphere. Science 337:1458–1459

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seaquist JW, Johansson EL, Nicholas KA (2014) Architecture of the global land acquisition system: applying the tools of network science to identify key vulnerabilities. Environ Res Lett 9:114006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sissoko K, van Keulen H, Verhagen J, Tekken V, Battaglini A (2011) Agriculture, livelihoods and climate change in the west African Sahel. Reg Environ Chang 11:119–125

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stige LC, Stave J, Chan K-S, Ciannelli L, Pettorelli N, Glantz M, Herren HR, Stenseth NC (2006) The effect of climate variation on agro-pastoral production in Africa. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 103:3049–3053

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque J-F, Masui T, Meinshausen M, Nakicenovic N, Smith SJ, Rose SK (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Chang 109:5–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilcox R (2012) Chapter 10 - robust regression. Introduction to robust estimation and hypothesis testing, Third edn. Academic Press, Boston, pp. 471–532

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Wolde-Georgis T (ed) (2002) The impact of cold events on Ethiopia. United Nations University Press, New York, NY

    Google Scholar 

  • Yengoh G, Armah F (2015) Effects of large-scale acquisition on food insecurity in Sierra Leone. Sustainability 7:9505

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • You L, Ringler C, Wood-Sichra U, Robertson R, Wood S, Zhu T, Nelson G, Guo Z, Sun Y (2011) What is the irrigation potential for Africa? A combined biophysical and socioeconomic approach. Food Policy 36:770–782

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zetland D, Möller-Gulland J (2013) The political economy of land and water grabs. In: Allan JA, Keulertz M, Sojamo S, Warner J (eds) Handbook of land and water grabs in Africa: foreign direct investment and food and water security. Routledge, New York, NY

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao M, Running S, Heinsch FA, Nemani R (2011) MODIS-derived terrestrial primary production. In: Ramachandran B, Justice CO, Abrams MJ (eds) Land remote sensing and global environmental change. Springer, New York, pp. 635–660

    Google Scholar 

  • Zulu LC (2010) The forbidden fuel: charcoal, urban woodfuel demand and supply dynamics, community forest management and woodfuel policy in Malawi. Energ Policy 38:3717–3730

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank Dan Metcalfe, Lina Eklund, A.J. (Han) Dolman, and Katharina Waha for their insight and comments during early stages of the manuscript. We also thank the programming assistance provided by the volunteers at the Stack Overflow and Cross Validated online communities. Funding for this project was provided by the Swedish National Space Board (contract no. 100/11 to J.A.). A.M.A. received support from the Royal Physiographic Society in Lund and the Lund University Center for Studies of Carbon Cycle and Climate Interactions (LUCCI). C.C.U. was supported by NSF grant OCE-1203892.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 22362, Lund, Sweden

    A. M. Abdi, J. W. Seaquist & J. Ardö

  2. Faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE, Enschede, The Netherlands

    A. Vrieling

  3. Lund University Center for Sustainability Studies, 22362, Lund, Sweden

    G. T. Yengoh

  4. Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt, MD, USA

    A. Anyamba

  5. Department of Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA

    C. C. Ummenhofer

Authors
  1. A. M. Abdi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. A. Vrieling
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. G. T. Yengoh
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. A. Anyamba
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. J. W. Seaquist
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. C. C. Ummenhofer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. J. Ardö
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to A. M. Abdi.

Electronic supplementary material

ESM 1

(DOCX 1906 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Abdi, A.M., Vrieling, A., Yengoh, G.T. et al. The El Niño – La Niña cycle and recent trends in supply and demand of net primary productivity in African drylands. Climatic Change 138, 111–125 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1730-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1730-1

Keywords

  • Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Drylands
  • El Niño-southern oscillation
  • Net primary productivity
  • Climate variability