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Evaluation and projections of extreme precipitation over southern Africa from two CORDEX models

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Abstract

The study focuses on the analysis of extreme precipitation events of the present and future climate over southern Africa. Parametric and non-parametric approaches are used to identify and analyse these extreme events in data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) models. The performance of the global climate model (GCM) forced regional climate model (RCM) simulations shows that the models are able to capture the observed climatological spatial patterns of the extreme precipitation. It is also shown that the downscaling of the present climate are able to add value to the performance of GCMs over some areas depending on the metric used. The added value over GCMs justifies the additional computational effort of RCM simulation for the generation of relevant climate information for regional application. In the climate projections for the end of twenty-first Century (2069–2098) relative to the reference period (1976–2005), annual total precipitation is projected to decrease while the maximum number of consecutive dry days increases. Maximum 5-day precipitation amounts and 95th percentile of precipitation are also projected to increase significantly in the tropical and sub-tropical regions of southern Africa and decrease in the extra-tropical region. There are indications that rainfall intensity is likely to increase. This does not equate to an increase in total rainfall, but suggests that when it does rain, the intensity is likely to be greater. These changes are magnified under the RCP8.5 when compared with the RCP4.5 and are consistent with previous studies based on GCMs over the region.

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Acknowledgments

We are grateful to the Water Research Commission financial support from the Project K5-2240. We would like to thank the regional downscaling groups for producing and making available their model data. We also thank two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town (UCT), Private Bag X3, Rondebosch, Western Cape, South Africa

    Izidine Pinto, Christopher Lennard, Mark Tadross & Bruce Hewitson

  2. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP-GEF), Energy and Environment Group, New York, NY, USA

    Mark Tadross

  3. European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Ispra, Italy

    Alessandro Dosio

  4. Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden

    Grigory Nikulin

  5. Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Tropopshere Research, Karlsruhe, Germany

    Hans-Juergen Panitz

  6. South African Weather Service and University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa

    Mxolisi E. Shongwe

Authors
  1. Izidine Pinto
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  2. Christopher Lennard
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  3. Mark Tadross
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  4. Bruce Hewitson
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  5. Alessandro Dosio
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  6. Grigory Nikulin
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  7. Hans-Juergen Panitz
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  8. Mxolisi E. Shongwe
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Correspondence to Izidine Pinto.

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Pinto, I., Lennard, C., Tadross, M. et al. Evaluation and projections of extreme precipitation over southern Africa from two CORDEX models. Climatic Change 135, 655–668 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1573-1

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